Ben Tiemeyer

BP x DP mock draft!

Spin of the day 👀👀👀👀 This was the first time I’ve ever used this simulator. Watching it play out this way is actually so fun

2.1M FOR THE WIN 🔥

Simulating the NBA Draft Lottery. The real one is May 10, but you can see the odds count down in this version. You can use this one on lottery day to see the odds change. espn.com/nba/story/_/id…

See where the players on your favorite (or most despised) team are for just playoff performance. espnanalytics.com/nba-award-lead…

MVP was obvious. Here's the rest. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-summ…

@BropeJim I actually meant to say a difference of 2.7% not 2.9%, as in the difference in #1 pick odds for the bottom 3 teams (5.4%) vs slots 4-10 (8.1%) Just trying to make the points it’s not as massive of a difference as people are making it out to be

@Ben_Tmeyer The worst teams in the league who are legitimately bad like the sac kings who werent even tanking will now be bottom 3 and have -9% chance than they would have Where are you getting 2.9% from? Legitimately bad teams already had tough time getting #1 pick now its even harder

I think the new proposed "3-2-1" nba lottery is good While it is imperfect, it would be a huge improvement over the current format Here are my responses to some of the points criticism people have raised against it 🧵

@ravneet25 Agreed an elite QB is similar to that, but from what I understand the hit rate on top drafted QBs is typically lower than NBA Stars and also some drafts there are maybe only 1 or no available QBs that are considered to have elite potential (like this year’s draft)

@Ben_Tmeyer I have heard this argument a lot, but what about the QB position in the NFL? I would argue that it's the most important position in all of team sports. NFL teams have an incentive to tank, but there are other reasons they don't / can't.

@AuburnBlazer Yeah probably not competitive like playoffs, but they could at least give themselves a good chance to get out of the bottom 3 with a couple moves

@Ben_Tmeyer Yeah it’s not the best team, but I don’t think they could have gotten a competitive roster anyway, right?

@toddjr2014 Oh good catch those 2 should be flipped!

@Ben_Tmeyer Why are the Trailblazers in the lottery and the Magic are not?

@AuburnBlazer 😂 But do you agree they currently aren’t trying to build a good team?

@Ben_Tmeyer “Just build a good team”

@AuburnBlazer Nets now need to build a good team and try to win, if they aren’t good enough to make the playoffs they will have the same odds as everybody else who missed Their current roster is an unserious attempt to win because the front office is prioritizing draft capital in lottery

@Ben_Tmeyer Are we being serious? This is awful. This was like the 3rd sim I did. Why would you ever support a system that would have the 20 win Nets picking 12th?!? How is that supposed to improve them? And the Hornets pick 2nd?

@ToolmanTA @DeuceMason I was definitely rooting for both, great game from Flagg with a loss was ideal haha, but yes I agree overall Flagg’s development is more important

@Ben_Tmeyer @DeuceMason You should just be rooting for the development of Flagg because outside of the no1 pick the expected return of lottery picks is not that high even if you get a top 5 pick the player you draft would be much more often a non future all star

Seeing this table of what the lottery odds would be in the "3-2-1" format just about killed me. Imagine going through a 20 win season & then picking 12th. You want teams to not tank? BIG fines, take their picks/ lower their odds. This feels like an extreme overcorrection.

@name2common4ths I am talking about the new odds where 4th worst team can fall down to #16

@Ben_Tmeyer Again, no way that's accurate. 4th worst team couldn't fall further than 8. With a 45% chance at a top 4, an average of 7.4 wouldn't make sense. Only the top 4 picks are currently lotteried. The rest are ordered by record. Your point isn't necessarily invalid but the math is off

@name2common4ths I’m saying 4th worst team has avg pick of 7.4 in new odds, and 1st worst team has avg pick of 8.1 in new odds

@Ben_Tmeyer Nope. Worst team had 0% chance to fall past 5, how could the average be 7.4?

@DeuceMason I think extreme punishments are harder to implement on teams already eliminated, because like for example the Grizzlies this year, who’s to say its not in their best interest to see what they have in a 2-way guy by playing them 40 minutes at the end of the year?

@Ben_Tmeyer Oh, I'm with you on the rooting against your team thing. Why not keep the current system and implement extreme punishments for those who tank? I struggle to see how the bad teams improve if they are picking like 10, 11 or 12 every year.

@blanquitoRico That is a fair point actually haha, but i think the bottom 3 zone could help to at least not have teams completely shut it down once they are eliminated

@Ben_Tmeyer If the lottery is determining the entire order of the draft, not just the top-4, then why punish the bottom 3 teams? It’s not like they’re bad at that point to limit how far they can fall in the lottery.

@DeuceMason As a Mavs fan I would much prefer if I didn’t have to root against my team this year, knowing wins hurt our odds also not healthy for players to be in an environment where they want to play well and win while its obvious that every fan and executive actually wants them to lose

I think it's bad for fans, too. At least when your team has a bad year, there's HOPE they you can turn things around with a top 5 pick. That would go out the window with this new system.

@JayGSports I wouldn’t say “punishment” I would say it’s just a slight decrease in draft odds to encourage a bad team to make some win-now moves and not be embarrassingly bad the next year as well

@Ben_Tmeyer But isn’t this still punishment? If this is made to eliminate tanking and if it is successful at that. Won’t the bottom 3 teams just be genuinely bad. And now they have even less odds of getting a top player? Only 4/7 teams the past 7 years with a bottom 3 record got the 1st pick

@DeuceMason Might need to make a move at the deadline if you are headed for one of those bottom 3 spots then lol