Benjamin Radd

Made my debut on Piers Morgan's show today. One point I made was that, as bad as the IRI's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is, it goes both ways and is a card that can only be played once. Eventually, Gulf States and the broader international community will figure out ways to bypass it, and then what is the regime left with?

@palisurfgirl @lalovestrump @nicksortor @SteveHiltonx This is not Westwood Village. It’s further south, by at least two miles. It appears to be Santa Monica Blvd near the Sepulveda intersection.

@nicksortor @SteveHiltonx This is Westwood Village yesterday, huge homeless camp next to 6 - 7 dollar gas station. It’s INSANE

🚨 WOW! California Gubernatorial Candidate Steve Hilton (R) just CALLED OUT Democrat candidates to their FACES for blaming CA's high cost of living on TRUMP "Donald Trump is the president in ALL the other states of America, where the cost of living is WAY LOWER than in California." "It's not Donald Trump who's given us gas prices $2 higher than the REST of the country! It's Democrat policies, which ALL the Democrats here support. It's NOT Donald Trump that's given us the highest housing costs in the country. It's Democrat policies that all these Democrats support!" "Obviously, it is way past time for change in California and endlessly going on about Donald Trump doesn't serve the needs of the struggling families and small businesses."

I've been reading a lot commentary and analysis since the start of the war that goes along the lines of what @citrinowicz posits, here: Targeted killings do not necessarily bring the US/Israel closer to objectives and long-term goals because, although the target may die, the underlying ideology endures. Therefore, it's a fool's errand to pursue such tactics. But maybe it's also about strategy and not just tactics? There are only a finite cadre of IRGC and other ideological diehards who can trace their roots back to 1979 or the Iran-Iraq War. In a NYT piece today, @farnazfassihi brings up a few of them. What unites these types -- and their consolidation of support around Mojtaba -- is that their ideology and fealty to the Revolution were collectively forged in the fires of Mt Doom -- ie, the events and shared experiences of 1979-1989. Vahedi and his ilk (Zolghadr, Safavi, and especially Rezai) are of that kind. These are men with blood on their hands and alleged complicity in international acts of terror. They have proven their revolutionary bona fides and are prepared to die defending them, the Iranian "vatan" and "melat" be damned. But beyond them, who else is left? At some point, the well of revolutionary fervor and zealotry runs dry. Take out enough of these veterans of 1979, and the political calculus for the remaining IRGC leaders -- those without 1979-1989 bonds -- may change. Can anyone, including @citrinowicz , discount that possibility? There is much we don't know, and that should temper our judgement and analysis.

Here is one possibility of the parameters of US-Iran deal that gives both sides an offramp and allows leadership to "save face" (which is, like, 90% of the challenge given this cast of characters): 1. Iran agrees to 10- or 15-year zero-enrichment ban, giving Trump a win on his stated goal of "no enrichment". This would be more onerous than what JCPOA had (and Trump can say "it's a better deal than Obama's"). 2. Iran gets sanctions relief, unfreezing of funds, and most importantly — a guarantee, in the form of a Senate-ratified treaty or agreement, that a future POTUS can't unilaterally withdraw. This helps both sides overcome the "trust" issues that have been an obstacle so far.

Not surprising that nothing came out of the Islamabad talks. It took years of diplomacy to reach the 2015 JCPOA — and that was a narrower agreement! A more complex deal, now layered with the Strait of Hormuz issue, was never going to materialize quickly. The real question: who has more to lose as the ceasefire window closes, and whether Iran has overplayed its hand.

While all eyes are on Islamabad and the upcoming talks between Vance + Ghalibaf, the massive gulf (pun intended) between the two sides persists! Especially because Ghalibaf is not the political center of gravity in Iran — that would be the IRGC's top-level cadre. The key will be what statements and positions emerge in the coming hours from those senior officials. If there is any daylight between them and Ghalibaf, hard to see anything enduring coming from these talks.

Strait-of-Hormuz-as-a-Service: SoHaaS. Who's working on this?

The ruler is beefing with the pope, his legions have fought to a stalemate with Persia, now typhus is breaking out in a major city, oh yeah it’s late antiquity out there

BIG night of interviews on @CNNTheStoryIs from 9-11p pacific. -Retired @NASA astronauts @astro_g_dogg Danny Olivas -Iran experts @BenjaminRadd @GissouNia -@SteveHiltonx on earning @POTUS endorsement -@LamarOdom on his new @netflix doc -@EvaLongoria on her new @CNN show

@hdagres @yashar “Ordinary” Iranians?

The transgenerational trauma experienced at the hands of the IRI by some diaspora Iranians, alongside the trauma faced by newer diaspora members, is heartbreaking. It has taken such a toll on their psyche that some struggle to accept ordinary Iranians are also being killed. 💔

Perhaps the greatest community note of all time.

A prank has started in Tehran. The buzzing recorded sound of a flying drone gets the Basij ( the local Islamic militia) to run away.

@farhatchristina this is what you were referring to?

Exclusive image of Khamenei’s assassination

Shortly after the 1979 revolution, an Armenian sandwich-shop owner in Tehran was imprisoned. Revolutionary enforcers ordered him to hang portraits of Khomeini, which he complied with, and at a later time of president Bani Sadr, which he also complied with. After Bani Sadr fell out with the clerics and was impeached, the men returned and demanded, “Take down that bastard’s picture!!” The shop owner calmly asked, “Which one?” His reply, spoken out of political indifference, was taken as implying that Khomeini could be the bastard, and that unintentional implication had him arrested!

“I do not risk open war.” “War is upon you, whether you risk it or not.” - Aragorn to King Theoden, “The Lord of the Rings”

Trump is offering a deal he knows Khamenei can't/won't accept, setting up scenario where diplomacy was "offered and attempted but rejected," and opening path towards a kinetic strike (I imagine in the coming days). drive.google.com/file/d/1dtnGtv…

So it appears that Trump is offering Khamenei a "poisoned chalice" deal that he knows is dead-on-arrival and unacceptable to the regime (no nukes, no enrichment, no proxies, no ballistic missiles), and can then claim that he (Trump) "tried diplomacy and to make a deal", but that the Iranian's refused. This justifies aggressive action, in his mind. It's then off to the races.

Joined ⁦@Elex_Michaelson⁩ on ⁦@CNNTheStoryIs⁩ last night to discuss the day’s events at Davos.