Ben Smith

@BronzeBeardd enjoyed the pod, hope you post here more often

@CharlesSchwab Can you please send frequent updates? This is troubling.

@AlexR64_ THANK YOU!! This eases my Wisconsin pain

I’ve Seen This Movie Before

@halfkelly 6 mths!

AGI is 6 months away. We are so cooked. That's why I spent the day teaching OpenClaw how to lowball people on Craigslist... rather than applying to plumbing trade schools.

@howardlindzon Ok I’m bringing my bike down to Coronado for a tryout!! No joke put me in the game coach

@Benjaminsmith you got the legs and the chops and the stomach is all that matters

@howardlindzon Net worth & FTP required to join your Italy cycling group? Working on both

@JWooCap @Kalshi I'd love to test it out. Thanks!

After semantically matching 30,000 news articles to every @Kalshi contract, i’m working on an AI model that scores which headlines actually matter. It pairs LLM embeddings (AI representations of meaning) with GPT-5 impact estimates (the model’s guess of how a headline moves prices/volume) and checks itself with before/after event windows. Backtest results: +73% accuracy and 2.3× more high confidence matches (clear, reliable links) vs. our baseline. Next: improved on-chart catalysts and live news/X alerts. Let me know in comments if you’d like the link to test it out!

@goldenpants013 Hey hey. Love your pod. I was curious if you know where to find your pod transcripts. Trying to get better, and they help. Thanks.

@PredMTrader Thx! What’s an example of a leaderboard update in an illiquid market?

The Easiest Way to Profit on Prediction Markets 👇 1. Find a market that moves on sporadic news (approval ratings, leaderboard updates, etc.) 2. Set up real-time alerts 3. Trade instantly when the update hits Bonus: ⚡️Automate your trades via API to cut lag 🔎Back-test your “first source” - if price moves before your source updates, keep digging 🔁Focus on recurring markets so your edge is repeatable Simple? Yes. But the edge is in finding the earliest signal. With a small bankroll, start in illiquid markets where there’s less competition.

@howardlindzon Is trends w friends coming back Howard?! Miss it

The Degenerate Economy...Beyond Ludicrous Mode Here Come Supply... I am celebrating by booking some profits fresh in my newsletter

@wintonARK Great stuff, pls write more on this-- this trend def has legs

How prediction markets, and the partnership between xAI and Polymarket, could provide the world with more objective truth. Read below #xai-polymarket-super-charging-truth-markets-with-grok" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">ark-invest.com/newsletters/is…

@ethanshanfeld @nofinersteiner Thanks for a really well written article on this trend. I thought you went above and beyond. I hope lots of people see it.

"The Billboard Hot 100 used to be the industry standard to understand what is popular ... Now, it’s a fan-focused product, inciting competition and fantasy football–esque gaming." A great deep dive into the gamification of pop music by @nofinersteiner — theringer.com/2025/01/03/mus…

@DanWoikeSports Didnt Florida win back to backs in 2005 and 2006?

A RT for the crusty-eyed Lakers fans

@howardlindzon Hahahah

@Benjaminsmith Lots of cashmere

I’ll take some questions and answer them as if I’m Chamath or David Sacks … go

@JonathanMostow Hi Jonathan. I'd love to get in touch to discuss licensing on the 1997 Breakdown film. Wasn't sure the best way to get in touch, so pardon the tweet. Let me know, thanks.

@charlesxholmes Thoughtful piece today, nicely done. Plz replace Andy Greenwald on the watch (jk, sorta)

nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2023/05/ge… Interesting data

@djpleez Lakkkkkurs

Poole is a liability.

@macnal0512 @ESPNTucson Yup! I was at St Gregory at the time. Always curious what became of Flannery

@Benjaminsmith @ESPNTucson Salpointe’s own?

Who are the five all-time best basketball players from Tucson not named Sean Elliott? 🏀 👀