BetterIRR

Account rebrand: Better Nest now = BetterIRR

@atelicinvest @KairosPraxis Semi-predictable, though even worse than I thought. Will lead to a good op once guidance turns. x.com/BetterIRR/stat…

@KairosPraxis what happen

Haivision $HAI.TO just posted 🤮earnings. Stock dropped 25% yesterday and gained a little today. This is going to be my biggest L of the year - updated guidance for FY26 is *almost* flat revenue yoy and lower GM. Coveted 20% EBITDA margins pushed from FY27 ---> FY28 or 29 😬 Q2 Revenue dropped 5% yoy and Adj.EBITDA margins at 1%. Perfect storm: 1. Memory and server prices through the roof. "Suppliers are just raising prices arbitrarily." 2. Defence slowdown: they can't deliver to ships that are currently deployed at the strait lol. DHS budget issues. 3. Enterprise: Clients delaying projects to focus spending on AI/cybersec --> this is bad. GM low because of product mix and delivery delays. Should pick up in Q3. Silver Linings: 1. They're putting a lot of R&D into some cool defence products that will contribute to revenue in FY27 and FY28. (see picture) 2. They are mission critical, so can pass on price ⬆️. Investing in supply, giving customers the option to procure hardware directly, and selling only software. 3. Balance sheet in good shape.

ECB hiked rates, additional rate hikes expected. Meanwhile, google search trends going bananas. $D.MI is going to print some outrageous EPS growth numbers...and it's 10x trailing earnings!

@P_Remarks Very dumb, exclude all AI related growth post chat GPT and it's still dumb.

Signs were there from last CC call: Iran war delaying procurement (still an issue) Memory prices hurting margins (still an issue) Buybacks went to almost 0 vs maxing out

Wow, what an awful $HAI.TO call! Got lucky on this one, thankfully no position. Will be a great long again at some point.

Rough looking $HAI.TO quarter, probably sells off and creates a good opportunity in a quarter or two.

@JerryCap This thing is way too tied to $IGV, makes 0 sense

$MSFT <$400

@DeepValuePlay @ADHD_Capital Agreed, think this is one of the most obvious mispricings I've seen in a large cap.

@BetterIRR @ADHD_Capital Yeah but why would you remove it? It’s only the biggest tailwind in the world EVER.

Y’all are going to sell $MSFT down to 20x ntm as Azure accelerates from a low 40s % growth rate with >$500bn in RPO? I get it, OAI is a big % of that but it’s not like there is a compute glut in the foreseeable future… give them time, they will crush Anthropic

1 Main Capital's latest quarterly letter — key takeaways: • **The recent AI-driven selloff, particularly impacting IWG, is viewed as an overreaction; the firm remains a high-conviction holding based on a multi-year thesis.** • IWG's near-term free cash flow timing has shifted to 2025, yet its medium-term fundamentals are strong, targeting ≥4% top-line growth and low-teens EBITDA growth, with potential for ~$1bn EBITDA. • The manager believes AI will serve as a tailwind for IWG by driving demand for short-term leases and creating long-term office space for management without significant capital investment. • Reinitiated a core position in KKR after a >30% decline, citing material AUM growth, diversified fee streams, limited direct-lending exposure, a recent $23bn NAX4 close, and insider buying as reasons for optimism. • **The macro outlook indicates a bifurcation between expensive growth stocks and overlooked cash-generative businesses; geopolitical risks (notably in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz) pose a wildcard for oil, inflation, and Fed policy.** • The manager believes fears surrounding private credit for KKR are overstated, predicting that mid-sized alternatives will be culled while mega-alternatives will capture increased flows from allocators favoring top-tier managers. • The portfolio is highly concentrated, with the top five holdings comprising ~65% of capital, focusing on high-quality, cash-generative small caps capable of using downturns to acquire competitors and repurchase stock. • The manager's approach emphasizes long-term, fundamentals-driven underwriting, opportunistic purchases during periods of indiscriminate selling, and prioritizing companies that can widen their competitive moats and generate free cash flow. Read the full letter → hfbestideas.com/letters?open=z…

I hope $VST.CN management is hitting the buyback hard and just haven't filed yet. This price action is ridiculous. 41% discount to just their $NURS.V holdings which is 10x NTM on a sandbagged guidance before any contribution from peptides which could easily double EPS.

@Uzocapital f) they tell their family and friends to buy $TVK.TO

Pay attention when insider buying is accompanied by mulitple of the following: a) first buy(s) for a long time b) multiple insiders participate c) size is material d) buybacks recently initiated e) material catalyst / fundmental inflection is close $LODE $DLO $BETR

@Adj_3bitda Sounds too high, is that on a fwd basis accounting for FY global blue results?

@BetterIRR Leverage is just too high at nearly 7x FCF

$FOUR nearing all time lows, quite the accomplishment! 🥳

Looked at old friend $ZEG.L for the first time in a while, what a chart!

@roinvests Thanks

@BetterIRR Economy is in the gutter drivers dropping coverage, my guess is soft market will fix this. Structural concern is they lost part of $pgr business to RA global + autonomous will in the long run reduce total loss rates even if it spikes in the short term

What's the story behind $CPRT and it's implosion? Why did growth fall off a cliff?

@QualityCap0 Thanks

@BetterIRR Loosing market share to $RBA and doesnt help that $PGR is the only insurer growing volume and mostly uses $RBA over $CPRT

@Romtin5 Agree with that.

@BetterIRR IMO long term thesis doesn't bode well. Improved collision prevention technologies and autonomous vehicles will hurt their business model. Maybe the market sees this