Betting Quant

@OctagonAnalytic @PolymarketTrade you saw my positions

@Betting_Quant @PolymarketTrade Do you think they actually announce a successor to the formal leader? What’s ur take?

Someone is cooking something... @PolymarketTrade I see a lot of similar-looking accounts placing these kind of trades in inactive markets: Literally transferring money from one account to another. I guess soon we'll see a new winner on the leaderboard coming out of nowhere.

@Remember_Amalek how?

The narcissist Domer participates in yet another round of thievery, and like all thieves he thinks his victims are wrong because he succeeded.

@_dominatos "At T-10 seconds before window close, BTC direction is ~85% determined" - and Polymarket already trades at 99 😅

A series of UP or DOWN always attracts Martingale-Players... The problem: They drive the price for the next 50/50 outcome sometimes up to 60c, before the start of the next 15min-block, and then they have to buy even more shares to cover previous losses...

THEY DID IT AGAIN: Manipulating the 15-min BTC market @Polymarket BTC was down ~$20 in the last minute but the price for DOWN on the 15-min up or down market was just 20c vs. 80c for UP. Someone was heavily buying UP. Then, in the last 30 seconds, BTC shoots up $35 and UP wins!

@securezer0 I meant, every inefficient market will get arbed away, even weather etc.

@Betting_Quant For 15min? It’s already happening. On the less liquid markets there is definitely orderbook manipulation happening on Binance at the last second

Everyone with a Claude Subscription is trying to make an Arbitrage Bot for the 15min / 1hour BTC UP / DOWN Polymarkets You may as well just send your USDC to Jane Street directly, you're not going to beat them on the orderbooks. They are going to our trade you They've got faster infrastructure, better developers & more money. They're also not creating their million dollar trading bots in Claude. If you want to automate, or semi-automate, a trading strategy, it needs to be a strategy that isn't oversaturated. You need to activate 100% of your brain and think of something at least semi-original. 1. Weather Trading - Aggregate meteorological data to predict outcomes on Polymarket Daily Temperature Markets. 2. Mispriced Markets - Pass events, markets, titles, rules and live odds to an LLM with access to google and have it check if the market is objectively mispriced. For example: if a match was cancelled but odds didnt go to 50/50, or if a market is set to resolve in 2026 according to the rules but an incorrect end date on Polymarket mislead investors into believing it would end in 2025 3. Charts / Box Office / Revenue - Look for API endpoints or scrape data from the resolution sources of markets like 'Spotify Top Charts' or 'Opening Weekend Boxoffice Gross'. Only take the position when outcome is guaranteed If you make money with any of these strategies i expect my commission paid to: HighlyProfitableTradingStrategy.eth

@securezer0 Yes, and the fastest bots with the best prediction model will take it instantly

@Betting_Quant There are many degenerate gamblers who will keep giving arb bots their money

@ItsNash0 Did you look into who was buying the opposite side?

There’s some great manipulation going on in polymarket’s 15m markets. You can be 1 minute await from settlement Btc is down 60$ from strike price DOWN shares cost 30c (wtf?) In the last 30 seconds, BTC spikes up 80$ Your down (surely winning) shares are now worthless. Thanks for playing.

@Andrey_10gwei You built your calculation on the already false assumption of doubling 16x in a row. Don't you see that 16x would turn $12 into 786k, not 100k? To turn $12 into $3000, you need a mere 256 accounts and just about 3k (someone mentioned, from 3k onwards, he traded normally).

From $12 to $100,000. How to create a Polymarket account that everyone will be talking about. Simple math. The account everyone on X was talking about today: @ascetic0x?via=10gwei" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@ascetic0x?via… The strategy for creating a similar account and blowing up X. To predictably build such an account, we shouldn't chase profits, because our goal is a beautiful story. So we need to hedge our trades across multiple accounts: - Half the accounts bet on Bitcoin going up - Half bet on Bitcoin going down - All bets are placed for equal amounts With each trade, the number of accounts is cut in half. And the balance of the remaining accounts doubles, until only one account is left. The question: What's the minimum number of accounts needed for this hedging strategy so that after 16 trades, only 1 account remains? The answer: 65,536 accounts. 2^1 = 2 2^2 = 4 2^3 = 8 2^4 = 16 2^5 = 32 2^6 = 64 2^7 = 128 2^8 = 256 2^9 = 512 2^10 = 1,024 2^11 = 2,048 2^12 = 4,096 2^13 = 8,192 2^14 = 16,384 2^15 = 32,768 2^16 = 65,536 How much money do you need to start with 65,536 accounts? Given that the minimum initial deposit per account is $12, we'd need $12 × 65,536 = $786,432. And on paper, the strategy looks entirely realistic for any whale, except for one major problem. How do you manage a farm of 65,536 accounts? Considering you need to place bets almost simultaneously across all accounts in both directions. Even if you automate it through software, there's a high probability of error - some accounts might fail to place bets due to network issues, software bugs, internet problems, etc. - which would throw off all your calculations and render the strategy invalid. Theoretically, it's possible to pull off, but in practice, it would likely take a year and countless failed attempts. P.S. I decided to write this post in response to the recent wave of accusations directed at this @Polymarket trader. In my opinion, they're absurd. P.P.S. @ascetic0x - you're incredibly lucky!!! Congratulations on such an amazing result.

Fridays are best for trading the Finance category on @Polymarket

Its crazy to me how people have such little understanding of basic math when it comes to probabilities and @Polymarket. 8300x means doubling your account 13 times, not 16 times. Very big difference!! Just use a calculator

@CarOnPolymarket @polygun_ with such few trades statistically irrelevant

This is insane Assuming each trade is a coin-flip with 50% chance to win, the odds of winning 16x in a row is 0.001526% 🤯 If you copy traded this trader with @PolyGun_ with just $12, you would now have $104,000!

@holy_moses7 he even bothered to give them all names

Too many, we can probably fill a stadium with them. It will take me all day to send all the links. @mosleybenjamin?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@mosleybenjami… @guzmanjodi?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@guzmanjodi?vi… @mirandamartin?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@mirandamartin… @mendozaamanda?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@mendozaamanda… @christina11?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@christina11?v… @rollinsjulie?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@rollinsjulie?… @rrodgers?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@rrodgers?via=… @bianca56?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@bianca56?via=…

Ever wonder why he had a $3k balance in his first post? The answer is simple: he’s running a massive Sybil farm. He didn't start with $12, he started with hundreds of accounts funded with $10-$20 each. Once one hit $2,900, he started posting. Since then, he had seven trades and seven wins. But notice that he bets his entire balance every single time. No real trader does this. He’s chasing clout and is willing to do whatever it takes to get it. He even appears to have wash-traded some of his last bet using his other accounts to get filled at his desired price, since he couldn't get enough fills. Do your own research before trusting "influencers" blindly. The attached pictures show some of his failed Sybil accounts that only managed to reach up to $1k.

@holy_moses7 Crazy! But just for the first 3k, then he doubled 5x times?

@holy_moses7 How many other accounts did he use? Seems like they just show a loss of +-10,

He can keep telling that he is not connected to any of those accounts, but all those accounts are part of the same Sybil farm as he is. His first trade was 7 month ago bonding random markets like this entire Sybil farm. Think I lie? Just check it: @ascetic0x?via=holy-moses7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@ascetic0x?via…

@holy_moses7 Let's watch and see if he does more trades in his account

@ascetic0x @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney @PolyBaddies @zscdao 8,300x is more like doubling 13 times, not 16 times... 🤔

I DID IT!!! Turned $12 into $100,000 (over 8,300x) by going all-in and doubling my bankroll 16 times in a row on short-term BTC moves - while sharing my bets and the reasoning behind them along the way. This is only possible on @Polymarket !!! It took a lot of work and real skin in the game, so if you’re reading this, a simple RT or comment would really mean a lot. Huge shoutout to @shayne_coplanand @Polymarket team for building the best prediction market platform out there. And special thanks to @zscdao and @PolymarketTrade for the support🤝 Track my progress here: @ascetic0x?via=share" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@ascetic0x?via…

@thejayden you could be gabagool himself making people think 'that's how it works' so they keep donating to btc-up-or-down markets

$500k in a single month. Over 6 weeks ago, I shared my first article breaking down step by step, how gabagool actually makes money. Profile: @gabagool22?via=jayden" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@gabagool22?vi… I posted his strategy here first, before anyone else talked about it. You won’t find a single tweet older than mine explaining how it works. Since then, I’ve received 50+ DMs from people saying they’ve built working arbitrage bots based on it. I’ll keep doing deep, high-quality work that helps you to gain an edge or at least get smarter about prediction markets. Interact! 🫂