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A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens:
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity,
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Martijn Kleinbussink
2.6K posts
Martijn Kleinbussink
@BiasedRational
Just a farmer harvesting the equity premium
Amsterdam, Nederland Katılım Aralık 2017
1K Takip Edilen552 Takipçiler
Martijn Kleinbussink retweetledi
typical chem co segments:
Advanced Materials: a highly cyclical commodity chemical
Performance Products: also a cyclical commodity chemical, but China has 2000% excess capacity of this one
Specialty Solutions: best way to model this segment’s margins is short natural gas + a negative shock for an inexplicable shutdown that’s never guided to & happens whenever something good is going on in the rest of the business
Precision Compounds: this repackages stuff from the other segments & sells it, allowing them to play with internal pricing to show steady margins so value investors can fool themselves into a sum-of-the-parts story once or twice every cycle
Engineered Applications: this is actually kind of a good business, but it’s 1% of EBITDA & they’ll sell it to PE for 6x in a couple quarters
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Martijn Kleinbussink retweetledi
This is the dumbest thing any government on planet earth is pursuing right now. And that’s saying something.
Jelle@CryptoJelleNL
Sad day in NL, the Dutch government is expected to pass a bill introducing a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains. This will destroy long-term strategies, kill compounding effects & trigger a wealth exodus of biblical proportions. But they'll pass it anyway. Can't fix stupid.
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Martijn Kleinbussink retweetledi
GS summarizes very well in a chart. Nothing that China industrials touch will not end up in overcapacity and subpar return on capital
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@hurdle_rate NotebookLM is less good in “deep research” in my experience, but it’s great for fact checking and over time analysis.
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@hurdle_rate Currently a 20 document limit I believe so it won’t last long. You can combine notes in word and then upload it again and again as 1 doc. So have a running news doc, notes doc, etc. Also works well with annuals and quarterly results as you get one repository for results
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AI's impact on labor productivity suggests a boost of around 23%-29%
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@HiddenMonopoly It is from the Roko ipo doc which cites the following study (can't copy in the doc)
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@BiasedRational Great chart ! Which study is it from ?
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The percentage of the M&A process being done by AI according to Bain
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May God give me the confidence of a $TSLA short-seller
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@Borlaug_ Additionally, how long will trump tolerate WuXi or when will he find out about Wuxi
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Big pharma alluding to the potential need to onshore more manufacturing to serve US market given tariff concerns.... could be good for capex tools, but arguably even better/more certainly for $LONN who just bought a giant US site (Vacaville) last year from $ROG.SW and needs to occupy the capacity.
If you're a big pharma w/ a blockbuster mab, are you really going to earmark spend that will take 2-3 years to become capacity? Much easier to pay Lonza a reservation fee and see what happens. Setup seems great on that front.
Small molecule situation is a lot different, most of the capacity is already OUS. Great for $A $WAT and anyone else in pharma QC. R&D still a mess though
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Deutsche Telekom is now worth 172bn, above their own estimate of 168bn at the end of 2027
Martijn Kleinbussink@BiasedRational
Deutsche Telekom guiding their stock price at their CMD $DTE
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Martijn Kleinbussink retweetledi
"Overpaying seems to be less hazardous than business ignorance".
I like how he inverts the common narrative about investing in MSFT at the DotCom peak
(2/6)
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Microsoft's PP&E as a % of total assets has increased from 8% in 2015 to 38%. With more than 50% of CapEx going towards short-lived assets (~5 years)
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