Bill D'Alessandro

Here's my big personal news: Natural Dog Company has been acquired by FoodScience, a Morgan Stanley Capital Partners portfolio company! After 13 years, the journey that started with me quitting my job to go all-in on Elements Brands has officially come to an end. What started as one guy in a rented office turned into $200M+ of sales and something much bigger. We bought (and exited) 8 brands, from skincare to laundry detergent to pet wellness. We pioneered the "ecommerce aggregator" model long before that was even a thing. We built an incredible team with deep expertise across ecommerce, Amazon, retail, operations, and finance, all of whom are staying on to work on Natural Dog and FoodScience's other amazing brands. And I'm not going anywhere. I'm staying on as VP of Corporate Development for the combined platform, where I’ll be leading M&A - finding and acquiring the best pet brands in the world. If you know me, you know I love this stuff. I can't wait to keep doing it with the firepower of FoodScience and Morgan Stanley behind me. Huge thanks to everyone I've learned from here on Twitter/X, and especially the EcommerceFuel crew. Y'all have been my sounding board, my therapy sessions, and my second brain for the last decade. I've learned more from you than any MBA could've taught me. Thanks for being generous with your knowledge and support. If you're running a pet brand and thinking about an exit - or know someone who is - DM me. We’re buying. I'd love to help you write your next chapter. Press release is in the next tweet!

So how much do we think Elon / SpaceX offered US Steel for the $X ticker?

See that deep green area labeled “perfect”? Thats Charlotte, NC Also one of the fastest growing metros in the USA

@mikefutia SHOP

Claude Design + Shopify is f*cking ridiculous 🤯 You can now publish pages from Claude Design → Claude Code → Shopify. Built 100% with Claude Design, Claude Code, and the Shopify CLI. Perfect for DTC brands and agencies who want to skip the design → dev handoff entirely. Here's how it works: → Design any landing page in Claude Design → Export as a zip and drop it into Claude Code → Install the Shopify + Shopify AI Toolkit plugins → Prompt Claude to convert the HTML into a Shopify page template + push to live theme → Claude uploads the images, deploys the files, and creates a published page No more handing designs off to a dev and waiting 2 weeks for a Shopify page. What you get: - A workflow that turns any Claude Design page into a real Shopify page template - Editable sections so your marketing team can swap copy, images, and CTAs without code - Images uploaded straight to Shopify Files automatically - A files-only deploy that only touches what's new in your live theme - A repeatable pipeline you can use every time you design a new landing page This is essentially the design-to-deploy pipeline brands have been waiting for. I put together a step-by-step playbook for going from Claude Design → published Shopify page. Every install, every plugin, every command, and the exact prompt that runs the whole thing. Want the playbook for free? > Like this post > Comment "SHOP" And I'll send it over (must be following so I can DM)

@EndresenHeather @OneManLBO If that happens, it’s a huge opportunity. I have no idea how to price those policies though - they’re effectively CDS in Main Street small business Hard enough to underwrite the equity!

@BillDA @OneManLBO That is possible, yes.

Intrigued by this SBA loan PG insurance thing. Premiums seem very cheap (1%-2% of principal?) One way to think about it: SBA will strongly object because it defeats the purpose of the PG (borrower needs to have skin in the game) And a single line in the loan paperwork ("borrower commits to not using any type of PG insurance") kills it immediately Another way to think about it: private sector solution is allows the government to offload some risk off its books (which should in theory be welcomed) Then there's the borrower trust issue -- will the carrier be around and return your phone call when you go BK in year 3? Will be watching closely to see if this gains traction Who know, maybe in 5 years we see credit default swaps issued for individual deals

@OneManLBO @EndresenHeather Is it possible this breaks the other way and it starts being de facto required in all deals as a form of extra safety for the lenders / SBA? Similar to the way reps and warranty insurance is de facto mandatory in larger deals.

@EndresenHeather I think this probably makes sense for a mid career blue chip professional service or finance person. A few million in the bank, but not quite as much to fully cover a $4-5M default

@MehtabKarta @therahulissar How many times are you going to watch a garbage PC laptop break randomly before you just get a Mac? Take the hint Mehtab!

@therahulissar I am not even sure I am the one that broke it this last time. I was at a hotel and using it totally fine, when I got back to my room the screen was not functioning properly.

Need a good travel laptop. Any reccs? I stubbornly stuck to gaming laptops because I always wanted them as a kid but they are huge, won't charge on planes, and I've broken 3 or 4 now... lol. No macs!

@MoreThanMasses Sorry, heading out this afternoon - next time!

@BillDA Can’t make lunch but tomorrow or Saturday?

NYC DTC Lunch today at 12:30pm in the Theater District Reply if you can make it! maps.app.goo.gl/viSrDJo77kNM2R…

@KevinDHinton Many

@BillDA Great post! I hate acronyms generally, and I especially hate ones that are wrong. How many DTC cos went down because they confused the V with the P I wonder

I never want to hear the term LTV again. Every ecommerce brand should be run off two true north customer metrics: LTR and LTP. The problem is that LTV is a revenue metric. Not profit. Not cash. Revenue. And the next words out of people's mouths after "LTV" is usually "CAC" - and revenue is a pretty dumb thing to compare to CAC. Revenue still has to survive COGS, freight, fulfillment, refunds, merchant fees, and all the other little margin goblins hiding in the P&L before you can use it to pay for CAC. This sounds obvious until you see how often it gets abused. Brand says: "Our LTV:CAC is 4:1" and means "We paid $50 to acquire a customer who eventually spends $200." Great, except that $200 might include $60 of COGS, $25 of shipping / fulfillment, $7 of merchant fees, and $20 of refunds, subscription discounts, fraud, etc. So your $200 "LTV" is actually $88 of contribution profit before CAC. Your "4:1" ratio just became 1.4 to 1 And that’s before fixed overhead, agency fees, payroll, software, and profit (you do want profit right?) This is why ecommerce brands should kill the term LTV entirely and split it into two metrics: LTR = Lifetime Revenue. This is what most people are calling LTV today. It’s useful! It tells you whether customers come back, how strong repeat behavior is, how long the reorder cycle is, whether cohorts are expanding or decaying, and whether the product has real downstream demand or you just bought a first order. But LTR is not profit. It’s a revenue metric. Use it for retention, cohort quality, forecasting, merchandising, subscription analysis, etc. Do not put it in a ratio with CAC. LTP = Lifetime Profit. This is the number that actually matters. LTP = lifetime revenue - COGS - shipping / fulfillment - merchant fees - refunds / discounts. You can argue about exactly what else belongs in there - customer service, packaging, duties, pick/pack, whatever. Different businesses have different cost structures. But the principle is simple: how much contribution profit does this customer generate before acquisition cost? That is the pool of money available to pay CAC. If LTP:CAC is below 1:1, you are losing money on acquired customers and you need to pull back. If you spend $60 to acquire a customer and they generate $45 of lifetime contribution profit, you are not “investing in growth.” You are paying people $15 to buy your product. That may be intentional. Maybe you’re venture-backed. Maybe you’re buying market share. Maybe you have a credible path to better gross margin, higher AOV, stronger repeat purchase, cheaper shipping, or lower CAC. Fine. Just call it what it is. The question that really matters for brands is: how much profit does a customer generate, how long does it take to show up, and what did we pay to get it? So yes, track lifetime revenue. Just call it LTR. But run your customer acquisition on LTP. And stop comparing revenue to CAC. I never want to hear about LTV again.

Theater District at 12:30pm today

This is happening at noon tomorrow - standby for location!

I’ll be in NYC tomorrow (Thursday), staying near Times Square Should we do a DTC lunch?

LTP is lifetime contribution margin (variable cost) Fixed costs (team) aren’t included because this is usually a marginal metric used in customer acquisition - do I want one more customer at 1.5:1 LTP:CAC Obviously want to be very careful at 1:1 to your point about fixed costs existing Rest of the business (repeats, wholesale,etc) helps cover too

@BillDA LTP is life time gross margins? so gross profits > cac. where are you putting team?

@AKASpencerScott Many such cases

Met with an $80m dollar company today... Owner told me he runs the whole thing on Excel and Quickbooks... I can't stop thinking about that

@MehtabKarta Salesmen with excel models are the most persuasive

Investment bankers are really good salesman. Whatever they say you need to auto discount by 50%.

Ok reducto ad absurdum Yes in 2,000 years America will be rubble, much like ancient Athens is today But on any timeline that is relevant to my life? Absent total societal meltdown / apocalypse - yes Harvard will be here And AI makes this stronger not weaker. With no productive human work it all just becomes status games

And on a long enough time frame you see today’s institutions lasting? I totally agree with the theory. I just think whether it’s in 10 years or 100, all institutions fall. I mean maybe im a weirdo, but I don’t see the dollar running the world or America existing one day. Not sure the time frame of course. In all history all institutions/powers fall eventually no?

Only a matter of time…Credentialism from legacy institutions is dead

@JamesonCamp Disagree - it’s K shaped. Top tier institutions are valuable and stay that way because they are filtering mechanisms and reputation signals. They don’t signal “this person has a great education” They signal “this person could get into Harvard”

@BillDA Agreed not today. Not on any quick time Frame. But Rome fell, all institutions will eventually It just happens slowly

@mtessar We are the only ones Matt

@BillDA OMFG I HATE MER

@ShinghiD I need to get back to running a brand so I can use it!

@BillDA Bill have to have you try ExpandFi! Literally this is our entire model.