Bill Kristol

The administration now faces a stark choice—one it can no longer avoid. A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it. B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric. What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win. The longer the administration pretends otherwise, the higher the cost will be #IranWar‌

Aaron Friedberg: “It’s hard for me to see how [the war] ends in a way that enhances our position in the world—and, in particular, enhances our position with relation our principal strategic challenge, namely China. And that’s what really worries me.” conversationswithbillkristol.org/conversation/a…

Not to be a killjoy but that monkey's not gonna learn how to read

“Instead of intelligence briefings, Trump is watching Stephen Miller say that ‘President Trump has calculated through every permutation and every degree of strategy’ to ‘an overwhelming victory.’ In a dangerous hole of our making, we keep on digging.” thebulwark.com/p/someone-need…

Can’t overstate how pathetic the “Today will be the largest strike package yet” talking point is. Hegseth really needs to read up on the Johnson administration bragging about “body counts” during Vietnam.

"'Never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy...' If only Trump had read this from Churchill before launching his hubristic war. If only Hegseth had read it before boasting about our inevitable success. I suppose it's out of the question..." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

Churchill: "Never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy...The Statesman who yields to war fever must remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

In today's Morning Shots: @EggerDC explains the significance of Joe Kent's interesting political gambit. And I'm struck by the irony of Trump invoking Churchill yesterday in the Oval Office--when Trump is the anti-Churchill in so many key ways. open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

"MAGA would-be stars have had a path to relevance: grabbing tightly to Trump and distinguishing themselves by the strength of their adoration and the purity of their hatred for his enemies. But another path is emerging. Joe Kent charged onto that path." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

Reporter: If you could say something to Trump, what would it be? PA voter: You’re a worthless pile of sh*t. Reporter: How many times did you vote for him? PA voter: 3 times. That was my bad. Apparently I’m an idiot.

"A poll last month in Canada, the U.K., Germany, and France showed a startling degree of public alienation from the U.S. in those historic allies. But it’s not just that they’re unhappy with the U.S. They’re now inclined to cast their lot with China." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

"Six months ago the Navy decommissioned its four Avenger-class minesweepers that had been stationed in Bahrain precisely to deal with Iranian mines. It gets dumber: Those four final American minesweepers left the theater in mid-January." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

Shouldn’t Tulsi follow Joe Kent and quit today, before the SSCI open hearing on worldwide threats at which she’s supposed to testify tomorrow?

Good discussion here on resignation of Trump official over Iran war. Joe Kent has run for Congress twice. He's ambitious (also a white nationalist creep). Interesting that he thinks being a war critic opens up a promising political future in MAGA & GOP. youtube.com/live/it6c6dNH5…

"One advantage we've had in our competition with China is we have friends and allies, while China has customers and clients. Trump has been doing his best to blunt that edge...He may prove one of the greatest friends the Chinese dictatorship has had." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

"This is the Trump doctrine: blundering from quarter-baked strategy to quarter-baked strategy, demanding and threatening, trusting in America’s brute strength to solve every problem...The damage it has done to our alliances around the world is locked in." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

Interesting. How many other ambitious MAGA pols are seeing a path forward in opposing the war?

A righteous lawsuit. "The teen is suing xAI as part of a group of Tennessee teenagers who allege the company’s AI tools were used to create nude images of them by editing photos in which they were clothed." Surely Congress could stop this tomorrow. wapo.st/4uwe5aT

New. Echelon poll, in the field March 12-16. So while Trump has been conducting his war. Trump approval, 41%-57%. (February approval, 44%-55%.) Trump approval on foreign policy, 38%-59%. Generic congressional ballot: Dem +5. echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/ma…

"The president and his senior advisers didn’t consider that the Iranians would get a say in what happens in this war. As a result, they failed to plan for the potential and foreseeable consequences of attacking Iran." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…