MacroCowboy

If a 2008 event happened again, Bitcoin would be the asset of choice. Medium and large financial institutions would have killed to have something like Bitcoin in 2008 when there was sheer panic for the big boys. Individuals like you and I might think we can just hide out in cash or hold some physical gold while the market tanks, but that’s not an option for anyone with a sizable about of money. The big word during 2008 was “counterparty risk”. The big banks thought they were smart holding credit default swaps with AIG, but the losses were so big that AIG couldn’t pay out. There was no where to store billions of dollars where you didn’t have some kind of counterparty risk. Holding billions of cash at another bank is simply a giant liability for that other bank. What about holding government bonds? Ok, the government won’t default, but the money will be repaid in heavily debased dollars that will have lost a substantial amount of purchasing power. Stocks? These will tank and some companies will go bankrupt and not make it. Ok, ok, what about gold and silver? Well, that’s a great option for an individual that has a few million dollars to shield. You can keep that in your home vault. But what if you have billions to shield? Financial institutions of all sizes would have to take on enormous counterparty risk going to gold because they’d have to buy the ETF or some paper gold derivative. Even if they held physical, it’s a massive undertaking moving, handling, storing, securing, and assaying the value of that much metal. Governments can easily seize it or block it as it moves around the globe physically. Before something like Bitcoin, I’d agree that gold is the best bet and the counterparty risks with physical gold are the least bad option. But with Bitcoin, you have zero counterparty risk when the keys are held in cold storage. It costs just a few dollars of fees to move billions of dollars of Bitcoin. You achieve final settlement in just one hour. You know exactly how much Bitcoin is out there because the blockchain is open in full view. The blockchain is open source and decentralized. You do not need anyone’s permission to send or receive Bitcoin. Transactions are immutable and censorship resistant. Gold is like an analog Bitcoin. Gold is just like Bitcoin except it’s much less portable, much harder to authenticate, less scarce, less divisible, more expensive to secure, and more vulnerable to physical seizure.

@scottmelker You know why… but of course, this NEEDS to be mainstream discussion and discourse.

Can someone please explain to me how negotiations between two industries, in this case crypto and banking, are relevant for legislation? Has outside influence in politics really gotten to the point where this is so normalized that nobody even bats an eye?

@AMSchindler1983 @texasrunnerDFW @JulieChangRE Amen to location. Had a great house once close to a highway. No matter what I did to it, it could never beat my quite cul-de-sac with large lots with mature shade trees.

Are we designed to do that or have we been conditioned to do that? That said, the best two pieces of real estate that I've ever gotten were from rich uncles: 1) If you buy a house, ilve in it. 2) You can always build a better house; you can't build a better lot. If you follow those rules, you can usually scratch the "make it better" itch with some sweat and creativity.

Why are so many Americans unhappy with their home and always wanting something else or bigger? Is this mass consumerism addiction?

@texasrunnerDFW @JulieChangRE How much more fit can you get though? Depressingly, you’re just going to get older and less fit. That sounds harsh, but it’s reality. Your lasting legacy will more likely be the impact you had on your family and this account. Your posts entertain and inform me. So there’s that.

@JulieChangRE We are deigned to chase progress and upward mobility Most people who don’t upgrade homes still do other creative things to achieve progress like renovations and redecorating I found I am happiest mostly leaving my home as-is and pursuing fitness goals

@LynAldenContact @BitPaine Q4 GDP was already revised down to 0.7%. Take away 0.5% and you’re basically zero.

@BitPaine Well that’s why it’s not like a 2% of GDP hit. US better positioned than Europe here for sure. But that 0.5% is hitting right when job creation is already at stall speed for nearly a year.

Half a billion dollars a day is about 0.5% of US GDP. Really not that bad tbh.

@LynAldenContact @BitPaine What further complicates this is that higher oil and gas prices also become higher income for the energy industry, so it’s good for them. Not saying that makes all this great, but there are domestic winners too.

@BitPaine The problem is that it broadly hits everyone and is a necessity. A 0.5%-of-GDP hit to energy prices is far worse than the same magnitude hit to luxury goods, for example. Like how the same bullet wound is way worse in the neck than the arm.

@darkside2030 @Puncher522 Now the Fed will blame the war uncertainty for inaction. Powell probably won’t lift a finger for the remainder of his term. If things go to shit, he doesn’t anyone to point at recent actions as a contributing factor. Though inaction is an action.

Print the darn money!

@WarMonkCT @texasrunnerDFW It was like an inch of pure sleet, which has a much higher water content than snow. It’s very slick and melts very slowly due to the high water content. It was on the roads for days.

@texasrunnerDFW 1 inch of snow and ice is considered horrific in Dallas, lol. Moving here from Connecticut, it was interesting to see Texans trying to drive in it.

New home sales across Texas declined in February, led by big drops in Dallas and Houston February *should* have been a much stronger print January had horrific snow and ice that basically shut down Dallas for an entire week, and mortgage rates declined in February

@torrempesta @PicturesFoIder When you’re 18, 5 years of prison is a long ass time. That’s enough to repay his debt to society and hopefully make him think again about getting in trouble. He’d still have plenty of time to get his life together. I’d absolutely give him 25 if he repeated though.

@torrempesta @PicturesFoIder After listening to her, it’s clear that it was aggravated robbery and him fighting in jail is a major red flag. I definitely think he needed prison time for robbery, and thought that even before listening to her. But I still think if he’s 18 and never been to prison, 5-7 years.

Judge gives 18 year old a 25 year sentence for armed robbery

@charliebilello Basically, the Louisiana Purchase has the cheapest gas.

Gas prices in the US have moved up to $3.88/gallon, their highest level since October 2022. The 33% spike over the last month ($2.92/gallon to $3.88/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=L3o7T1…

@dotkrueger Yes. Most sellers in 2008 made a huge mistake. They didn’t buy back in 2009. They came back in 2012-2013 and were far worse off than if they just held tight.

It seems tempting to "sell until things calm down". but if you do, you will be buying back much higher. and paying a hefty tax bill.

@infraa_ @Faytuks Said another way, I’m skeptical that the current crop of 18-30 years are ready to do something really hard like we did in the 1940s. The whole “good times create weak men, weak men create hard times, hard times create strong men, and strong men create good times”. We’re weak.

@infraa_ @Faytuks Touché, but I’m too old to enlist, haha. I get your point and I love your content. I share the exact same concerns, and think fiat is the main problem. The justification of the war and whether China keeps supplying us aside, I also think we’re way too soft to fight is my point.

BREAKING: US mulls deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, according to US officials - Reuters One option for securing the Strait of Hormuz includes deploying troops to Iranian shores.

@SantiagoAuFund I forgot about that show. I started it years ago, found it enthralling, but had work or something I got busy with and totally forgot about it. Need to pick it back up.

The show Dark on Netflix is a masterpiece…

@darkside2030 Serious question. Why not go back to a U.S. ban of export of crude oil and refined products that was in place for 40 years until December 2015? Since 2019, we’ve produced more oil and refined products than we consume. No reason the closed strait is our problem.

Wait until they announce price controls on oil

@MarioNawfal If they can hold the world hostage by shutting down the strait, then longer term, other GCC will build pipelines and infrastructure to offload oil to the Red Sea or go through Oman to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Persian Gulf. A bigger challenge will be other cargo like food.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran just set its price to end the war and it's not what Trump thinks. Tehran says it won't stop until it gets a guaranteed promise that the U.S. and Israel will never attack again. Not a temporary ceasefire. Permanent guarantees. An Iranian close to the regime says Iran needs a guarantee and "won't retreat even if the war continues for one year." The IRGC is now fighting like a militant group instead of a conventional army. They've abandoned their bases, scattered across the country, and are producing missiles in hidden underground sites. Iran also learned something crucial: it can actually close the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran now knows this weapon works and could keep using it to hold the world economy hostage. Even if Trump declares victory and pulls out, Iran might keep hitting Israel and the Gulf. The regime sees this as existential survival. At the end of the day, Iran wants to make the world economy hurt enough that no one tries this again. Source: Financial Times

@chrisrarata @AutismCapital It feels like after 9/11 the country became increasingly divided politically and we became very tribal. Since then, it’s been hard for us all to vibe on the same wavelength. I also think the internet and phones have made trends come on so fast they wear themselves out quick.

@AutismCapital I often think about this, & you're not wrong, it all stopped around that 2010-2015 max. America stopped vibbing & it needs it back.

What was the last decade that had a distinct aesthetic? 50s, aesthetic. 60s aesthetic, 70s aesthetic, 80s, aesthetic, 90s, aesthetic, 00s, aesthetic. Did it stop in the 2010s? Every decade you can pair with a music genre and an art style. What can you say about 2010+? It stopped.

@BTCtokoloshe @SimonDixonTwitt @AndreasSteno They are really communist, but the difference between the Soviet Union and China is that the West decided to have a trade relationship with China, which propped them up. We didn’t trade with the Soviet Union. Their rotten system collapsed without Western trade.

@BitcoinPoke @SimonDixonTwitt @AndreasSteno if China was really communist they would be destitute.

Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good..