MacroCowboy

If a 2008 event happened again, Bitcoin would be the asset of choice. Medium and large financial institutions would have killed to have something like Bitcoin in 2008 when there was sheer panic for the big boys. Individuals like you and I might think we can just hide out in cash or hold some physical gold while the market tanks, but that’s not an option for anyone with a sizable about of money. The big word during 2008 was “counterparty risk”. The big banks thought they were smart holding credit default swaps with AIG, but the losses were so big that AIG couldn’t pay out. There was no where to store billions of dollars where you didn’t have some kind of counterparty risk. Holding billions of cash at another bank is simply a giant liability for that other bank. What about holding government bonds? Ok, the government won’t default, but the money will be repaid in heavily debased dollars that will have lost a substantial amount of purchasing power. Stocks? These will tank and some companies will go bankrupt and not make it. Ok, ok, what about gold and silver? Well, that’s a great option for an individual that has a few million dollars to shield. You can keep that in your home vault. But what if you have billions to shield? Financial institutions of all sizes would have to take on enormous counterparty risk going to gold because they’d have to buy the ETF or some paper gold derivative. Even if they held physical, it’s a massive undertaking moving, handling, storing, securing, and assaying the value of that much metal. Governments can easily seize it or block it as it moves around the globe physically. Before something like Bitcoin, I’d agree that gold is the best bet and the counterparty risks with physical gold are the least bad option. But with Bitcoin, you have zero counterparty risk when the keys are held in cold storage. It costs just a few dollars of fees to move billions of dollars of Bitcoin. You achieve final settlement in just one hour. You know exactly how much Bitcoin is out there because the blockchain is open in full view. The blockchain is open source and decentralized. You do not need anyone’s permission to send or receive Bitcoin. Transactions are immutable and censorship resistant. Gold is like an analog Bitcoin. Gold is just like Bitcoin except it’s much less portable, much harder to authenticate, less scarce, less divisible, more expensive to secure, and more vulnerable to physical seizure.

Activist: "Your cows are putting carbon into the atmosphere." Farmer: "Where did they get it?" Activist: "What?" Farmer: "The carbon. Where did the cow get it before it put it anywhere." Activist: "From... eating?" Farmer: "From eating grass. And where did the grass get it." Activist: "The soil?" Farmer: "The air. The grass pulled it out of the air last spring. The cow ate the grass. The cow breathed some of it back out. It went back into the air it came from." Activist: "But it's still going into the atmosphere." Farmer: "It's going back. There's a difference between a thing going somewhere and a thing going back. You've described a circle and you're frightened of it." Activist: "Then just don't have the cow." Farmer: "The grass still dies in autumn. It rots where it falls. The carbon goes back into the air either way, just without anyone getting fed in the middle." Activist: "It's not that simple." Farmer: "It's grass, cow, breath, grass. Or it's grass, rot, air, grass. Same circle, fewer dinners. If that's complicated for you I'd stay away from the water cycle. That one's got clouds in it."

@QTRResearch They will inflate their way out of this. Buy Bitcoin, gold, silver and hold sought after real estate.

@QTRResearch AI productivity miracle is our only hope.

@infraa_ Crackup boom is underway

So I guess even Ford is doing the AI meme stock thing now…? They can build battery energy storage for data centers, so let’s gamma squeeze it up 20%? First Allbirds, now Ford… Are we just at the “fuck it, we ball” stage? Truly incomprehensible.

It’s hard to hide inflation with beef. It requires land, feed, and rancher time among other things. The feed requires fuel, fertilizer, water and farmer time among other things. It requires workers and energy to process the beef and ship it to market. None of this can be printed or mass produced in a factory in China. So beef prices reveal a more true inflation picture.

What the fuck is happening to beef?

@charliebilello That’s because a crackup boom is underway. Everything is going up in nominal dollar terms while our real purchasing power is draining.

The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low. We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street.

@SaltyGoat17 @Puncher522 @grok, is this true?

Over 400 Americans have been shot since the war in Iran began.... IN CHICAGO!!

@infraa_ This is what happens in a crackup boom. People think they are getting hilariously rich because everything keeps going up, but it’s the money that’s losing value. People in the Weimar Republic thought they were getting very rich at the start of their hyperinflation.

Despite a 6 handle on inflation, the S&P 500 ended the day not just green, but up almost 1 full ppt Granted, it was on some of the worst breadth we’ve ever seen and dispersion was the 2nd highest level on record (since 2023) The gamma squeeze continues unabated I guess. Wild.

@ces921 He’s not up for election again. He couldn’t care less. He figures the mid-terms would have been a loss for the Republicans anyways so might as well jam as much crap in that he wants that people hate, but will repay his donors and himself.

Trump Favorability Rating - Poll I am curious. What is he going to do to arrest this decline? Does he actually care to arrest this decline?

@TheBTCTherapist Sell your Bitcoin and stop crying. Still a great trend off the bottom. Minor pull back rn.

Michael Saylor has basically bought $1 billion in Bitcoin this week since Monday and the price is down. That’s only 3 days. This market is quite literally bullshit. Equities are ripping to new all time highs every single day while crypto is getting bent over. WTF IS HAPPENING

Yep, Bitcoin has a long history of people that wish they bought sooner and/or wish they never sold. I almost think it works like Peter denying knowing Jesus three times even though Peter was told he’d deny Jesus three times. People know Bitcoin is going up forever, but it takes several cycles for many.

@Kalshi The searches will come back when it’s over 100k again and everyone is like, “Oh I should have bought at 75k but I thought it was going to zero for the 3rd time in 5 years that we had a drawdown”

JUST IN: Searches for "buy bitcoin" at lowest level in past 12 months

@stackhodler Yep, all those people that don’t have kids because their spreadsheet’s say they’re too expensive don’t know what they’re missing.

2 year old son was staring at me while I was driving him home from grandma's house Then out of the blue: "Daddy? I love you, daddy" No one prepares you for how good it feels to hear that for the first time 100% one of the sweetest moments of my life so far

@scottmelker @TheFlowHorse If hills are a problem for you in Florida, then I’m not sure where you can drive that car other than a track.

@TheFlowHorse Major contributor is that the car is not a daily driver, certainly not where I live. Have to be careful at every pothole, small hill and speed bump. Take a lot of the fun out of it.

I definitely have a pretty loaded driveway, so I feel the opposite about cars, but to each their own. Childhood dreams don’t always fade hard. That said, once you make some money, this feeling usually shows up somewhere. The big purchases are exciting for a bit, then the novelty fades way faster than you expect. Most things normalize surprisingly quickly.

@PositiveCrypto Will feel so defeating if we get rejected hard here.

Bitcoin currently resting underneath the 200-day moving average. bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin…

@JasonBr15039189 @MichaelAArouet That’s what I’d think, but didn’t see them on the list at all. The list is oddly incomplete.

@BitcoinPoke @MichaelAArouet UK is very high due to high house prices and ownership

Germany has a high GDP, yet Germans remain relatively poor. They don’t own stocks, prefer to rent instead of buying property, spend a fortune on useless insurance, and then complain about inequality. Folks, you need to take some risk in life if you want to become wealthy.

@texasrunnerDFW Until the money runs out

The post-pandemic stock market boom created a new sort of UMC “leisure class” in low cost of living states People in their 40s or 50s who can’t fully retire but can scale back or choose a simpler job they like They sort-of work. Gigs. Sales. Coaching They walk their kids to school, play pickleball at 10 am on Tuesday, coach their son’s soccer team at 5 pm at the park on Thursday, and generally seem really chill and content They are NOT exceptionally wealthy, but they have *enough* and don’t have particularly expensive taste or high material standards for life Some people would hate it But honestly, it’s kind of living the dream

Gold is not, but more and more will be mined as price goes up. So the supply available to market will adjust and grow as price goes up. Stocks are infinite. Companies can print as many shares as they want. No limit to companies going public either. Sure, stock prices will go down if they issue too many shares, but the point is infinite shares can be issued to sop up infinite fiat money printing. Land is scarce, but improvements on land are less so. You can build denser housing on the same land. Tall skyscrapers, etc… like gold, it’s technically scarce, but you can always build out more and more.

@BTC_for_Freedom Gold, stocks, and real estate are not infinite.

Things that have a fixed supply: - Bitcoin - Your time on earth Things with unlimited supply: - Fiat - Gold - Stocks - Real Estate - Excuses from politicians

@TheBTCTherapist The next dem elected would just sell it.

Imagine if the U.S. government takes a position in $MSTR before it gets into the S&P.

@mikealfred No BTC held in cold storage?

Rate my portfolio: - $200,000,000 stocks - 4 Pokémon cards - $10,000 emergency fund - $1,200 checking account Would you change anything?