Crypto Advisor

@ecb GOFY

The digital euro can be a springboard for bank digitalisation, write Executive Board member Piero Cipollone and Supervisory Board Vice-Chair Frank Elderson. It strengthens Europe while helping banks modernise, compete with non-banks and stay profitable ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/dat…

Still bearish and next month there's a chance we'll test our important support around $50K.

Tried to kill my own power law for weeks. Tested hashrate, difficulty,Metcalfe,KAMA,Kalman.All worse. Every onchain metric lags price,causality is backwards. Time is the only exogenous variable.The two-phase power law model survives because everything else is worse. Data decides.

Question Marks...

2nd test, failed again. Flat as hell.

BTCUSD is not yet bullish on daily chart, it failed to break daily kama 2nd resistance level and now back to the average.

@TheBTCTherapist 100%, the secular trend is up since 2009.

On a scale of 0-100% how confident are you that Bitcoin is going to be worth more than $126,000 ever again. Be honest.

@ph3l I’ve been long since 2023. If you measure Bitcoin in gold ounces it’s a buy but not yet in USD based on my KAMA levels.

@Bitcoin_Trading Any buys from you based on this Enky?

BTCUSD/GOLD is inside the monthly KAMA bands, and my new market tension indicator is flagging the last two bars as a bottom. Time for Bitcoin to go up or for gold to go down.

@SBartender Sure, that chart is a ratio.

@Bitcoin_Trading Or they can both go down.

@WhaleCryptoPro KAMA levels don’t lie. I already identified my support for this year: yearly forecast at $54k, first KAMA price band at $51k, second level at $30k. The second monthly KAMA band has never been tested in Bitcoin’s entire history, so it's hard to reach 30k$ this year.

@Bitcoin_Trading Enky, my brother in Christ, where’s the bottom?

I'm replacing my bitcoin's power law model with a 2 state Kalman filter. My prev model needs a sigmoid patch to handle regime changes, instead Kalman adapts continuously with no breakpoints, no artificial shifts. The model bends to the market, not the other way around.Stay tuned.

A power law assumes stable scale invariance through time but BTC changes regime so the exponent cannot stay constant; log log fits on a non stationary series will always look good ex post, this is geometry not causality, a power law is just curve fitting, not a law.

I'm pretty sure that the idea that Bitcoin follows a power law line is just nonsensical, while my recent model might work as a coincidence, the underlying phenomenon regulating Bitcoin price since the genesis block remains unknown. I need to find something else, i don't give up.

@BanyiX 2)To spot the actual bottom, you need the Phase. The 'Panic' signal (green dot) triggers only when Phase = BOTTOM. That is the true reversal marker. Rising Tension alone just confirms the current move is strong and potentially dangerous. Now there are the dots, interesting moment

@BanyiX Rising Tension + Falling Price usually signals structural alignment to the downside, not a bullish divergence. It means the 50 scales agree on the drop, indicating high stress/continuation. Be careful: high tension is often danger, not a buy signal here.

Testing a new indicator that measures market tension. TENSION is the geometric mean of four factors: multi-scale 47 cycles alignment, phase coherence, amplitude vs equilibrium (extremes), and short/long energy migration: structural decay before strong moves. I'll do a blog post

@emilppr @NejcN Before that there will be another post: "Reading Bitcoin's Heartbeat: A Multi-Scale Phase Spectrum Approach" another tool to detect anomalies in price-time structure of bitcoin or other assets are well. Often around an anomaly there is a bottom.

@Bitcoin_Trading @NejcN Looking forward to that post!

My BTC new model (3 Power Laws + OU process) has been firing continuous MODERATE BUY signals since Feb 3, 2026, not euphoria just steady accumulation. Mean reversion force (Theta) is very high + price below equilibrium.

@NejcN Raw Model is on my blog. I’ll post a new update ASAP with the trading rules I’ve chosen.

@Bitcoin_Trading Will you share this model with us? :)