Phil

Saros has sold 300K+ in its first two weeks, generating over $22M (@alineaanalytics estimates). Almost a third of those copies came during the early-access period, which suggests that Housemarque superfans (including myself!) are propping this one up. We have a big deep dive with a lot more Saros data on our free Substack (playtime, audience overlap etc.) Link's on my profile. Players who consistently show up for PlayStation’s other first-party games at launch – or shortly after – make up a significant share of Saros’ early players: - 56% of Saros‘ players previously played Ghost of Yotei (released in October 2025). - 37% played Death Stranding 2 (released last June). - 11% played God of War: Ghost of Sparta (a February 2026 shadow-drop). - And 8% played Marathon (early March). Launch-aligned, our estimates show that Saros is actually selling a little slower than Returnal, despite there being only about 8M PS5s in the wild when Returnal launched vs the 93M+ install base Saros launched into. On first look, that seems rough. But there’s a bit more to it. When Returnal hit in April 2021, less than six months after the PS5 launch. Those early PS5 adopters (the ones who inherently buy a lot of new games at full price) were dying for something to play. Returnal was the first big first-party PlayStation release since launch, and it made amazing use of the unique DualSense haptics and spatial audio. Many core PS5 players flocked to it almost by default. It’s a different story for Saros. It’s launched not too long after Crimson Desert, Resident Evil Requiem, Hades 2 on PS5, Pragmata, and a whole bunch of rad 2026 games. This is a more niche PlayStation Studios game. It was never going to do numbers like God of War or Ghost of Yotei. Of course, Saros is also competing with the whole cumulative backlog of PlayStation releases that have built up across the cycle. The PS5 install base is over 11x bigger than it was at Returnal’s launch, but the share of that audience actively shopping for a new niche first-party title is structurally smaller. It really is a shame, as Saros is a fantastic game and frankly deserves better numbers than this. But 3D bullet-hell-type games, especially those with a $70+ price tag, are a tough sell in today’s market. Particularly without a big IP behind it, or a studio that’s recognised outside of the PlayStation hardcore. But there’s plenty to love about Saros. I’m loving it, and so are many others. It’s also already sold more copies than Marathon on PS5, so there’s that. This slow start suggests it will struggle to break even, given the reported $76M development budget. But at the same time, exclusives sell consoles, and then inertia from previous generations does the rest, and the real PlayStation money is made on third-party launches and legacy third-party live services. Plenty of core PlayStation players have picked up Saros, which is the underlying job an exclusive is meant to do. Sony will inevitably find new revenue and players via PlayStation Store discounts and its eventual PS Plus inclusion. But if revenue is the priority on this one for Sony, this fantastic game has sadly had a lukewarm start, as per our estimates. The broader point Saros’ launch underlines is one I’ve been making for a while. The PlayStation hardcore is an extraordinarily valuable audience, but it’s a finite one, and Sony’s first-party release cadence is increasingly bumping up against the limits of that audience’s wallet share. The elephant in the room is that Sony recently closed Bluepoint. Now that Housemarque has presumably closed the book on Saros, I sincerely hope PlayStation keeps them on the books. Like Bluepoint, Housemarque are some incredibly talented folks. More on the free Subsack.