Bobby
3.1K posts

Bobby
@Bobby_29
Investor, Portfolio Management and Technical Analysis , Macro Investment Analysis . Marathon Runner . Views are my own, always do your own due diligence.
Katılım Ekim 2009
1.1K Takip Edilen227 Takipçiler

@alphaticaio Agree with analysis , but since geopolitical risk has not settled yet, ratio can still go lower.
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Every major SPY bottom since 2011 has been confirmed by one signal.
Not breadth. Not VIX. Not earnings.
The Copper/Gold ratio.
We backtested 7 drawdowns across 14 years. In 86% of cases, the CG ratio bottomed the same day as SPY or lagged by 10–29 days. It has never once led the equity bottom.
That makes it the cleanest confirmation signal we've found:
→ 2011 Debt Ceiling: CG confirmed +17 days later
→ 2016 China: CG confirmed same day
→ 2018 Fed: CG confirmed +10 days later
→ 2020 COVID: CG confirmed +29 days later
→ 2022 (Jun): CG confirmed +26 days later
→ 2022 (Oct): CG diverged — bottom was imminent anyway
→ 2025 April: CG confirmed +22 days later
Average forward return after confirmation:
+18.7% at 3 months | +24.9% at 6 months | 100% win rate
The April 2025 signal fired on April 30. Three months later, SPY is up 25%.
Copper prices global growth expectations. Gold prices fear. When the ratio stops falling, real money is rotating back to risk. $SPY $QQQ $VIX

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@Mikeggibbs A lot of respect , extraordinary to see such a moral leadership!
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The S&P 500 has returned an average of 10% per year since 1928 despite an average intra-year drawdown of -16%. There's no upside without occasional downside, no reward without risk. $SPX
bilello.blog/newsletter

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@historigins @SantiagoAuFund In real life, you’re on your own.
I resigned from a well-paid role after an inappropriate message.
I followed the process — exit interview, HR, ethics committee.
Four months on, I’m still looking for my next role.
Some lessons are learned the hard way.
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