Tim Delaney

@bizalmanac @rebound_capital

H/t @rebound_capital

@bizalmanac Sorry but I’m ripping out my municipality golf course booking system and replacing it with AI tomorrow. CSU is cooked.

✍️Like last time, the 🌎 does not need another Constellation update. But I do! 📨"The heavens and the earth" should be in your inbox bright and early tomorrow 🧙‍♂️I re-underwrote CSI and its spins in concert with increasing my position bigly $CSU.TO / $CNSWF #Longlivethebeard

@strassa2 I'm afraid math and logic are no longer allowed. Perhaps when our AI overlords take over.

The most unfortunate thing is that government paid for child care is probably one the democratic parties best ideas. If you give someone X dollars more on a tax refund, for example, they make X and then they spend X and that’s it. If you give someone X dollars that covers child care, that creates a new job for someone to watch the child, and the recipient of the childcare can go get a job. It’s an extremely effective idea— and it also encourages people to have children if they know they’ll have help. I’m guessing the X going to childcare has more than 2x more benefit than in a tax refund. The sad part is all this fraud is going to make peole hate the idea of subsidized daycare, when it’s clearly a good idea.

I mean, it wasn’t like Maduro wasn’t warned to put the new 36 hole golf course from Trump National in….

So far so good!

@strassa2 Finally a deca-billionaire I can trust.

The best podcasts involve guests who rarely appear on podcasts and are incredibly knowledgeable but maybe not incredibly well known. Love Bridgewater or hate them, they are a massive fund having a massively strong year investing. Listen to their CIO (I’ll reply with the link). An incredibly good, comprehensive view of the world today.

@bkclaims emergingmanagers.org/service-provid… MIT

Got a DM from a young emerging manager asking about fund formation. Anyone have a current go-to list for: • Fund formation attorneys • Fund admin • Fund auditors Mine is embarrassingly out of date.

@BillBrewsterTBB Mark moves up. We do trains now!

If eDreams were private how much would the mark change based on yesterday’s news?

@ToffCap That call was a "train" wreck. Pun intended. Sidenote, back to using the fat picture of David. Glasshouses and all, I'm working on it.

What a release from eDream $EDR. Management says it’s getting progressively harder to target Ryanair capacity, as the airline tightens its efforts to prevent online travel agencies (especially eDreams) from selling its seats. This is nothing new, but the pace has clearly picked up, impacting eDreams’ business. Factoring in those headwinds, together with ao the shift away from annual subscription billing (pretty large drag on cash income), $EDR slashed its 2025–26 cash ebitda outlook to €155m from the earlier €215m. That's a tough cut. And the target for new Prime subscribers also drops to 600k from 1 million. For next year, cash ebitda is set to dip again to about €115m (well below the prior consensus of €240m!), before rebounding sharply from 2028 onward. Growth is expected to accelerate through 2030, averaging >30% a year, fuelled by a major expansion of the Prime membership base, which they now aim to push to 18 million by the end of the decade. In short - not good. Point is, this was already a polarising stock. Will the sub business work? Show it in the results. And they did. But now it's a big step back. And the market is not willing to pay for a 'somewhere in 2028 story'.

@John_Hempton Railroads and automobiles are pretty cool too.

It is also possible that both are true. The dot-com bubble really changed the world. Lots of infrastructure was built. Lots of real businesses worth a lot of money were made - and if you held the right stocks you did well. And an astonishing amount of money was pissed up against the wall on the most amazing schlock. And the fraudsters made out like bandits. The nature of bubbles is that there is often something very real at the base of it. Take the most extreme of Australian-centric bubbles - the late 1960s nickel boom (also known as the Poseidon Boom). The truth at the beginning was the discovery of the Kambalda deposit - a true - but now largely exhausted - nickel giant. It took Western Mining Corp from 2c to $10 and Western Mining became an important part of BHP. But there were >150 worthless nickel stocks that wound up with serious (for the time) market cap - and the Poseidon stock price was the front page of the paper. Bubbles with no real component are vanishingly rare. There have even been papers that rationalised tulip mania - and that is because there was - at least at first - a real tulip driver. And to this day tulips are a meaningful business in the lowlands.

@strassa2 I don’t have enough knowledge, but my gut tells me that, like with most regulation, this helps the massive tech companies that can afford it. Not sure the ins and outs of startups at college with foreign employees/ students postgrad and the ramifications so I could be off base.

I support having a $ cost associated w H1-B to encourage higher priced talent to come here. $100k though seems a touch high. A colleague suggested a dutch auction for the slots, I really like that idea.

@AKWilk I don’t know man, usually we agree on stuff but those are some real garbage stocks.

Key growth drivers going forward: – Urban density = pricing leverage – ESG & sustainability: RNG, recycling, electrification – Outsourcing by municipalities – Vertical integration (owning collection + disposal) – Inflation pass-through in contracts There is a long runway.

#CompounderFriday: Waste Edition Today we’re looking at the kings of trash: $WM (Waste Management) $RSG (Republic Services) $WCN (Waste Connections) Three boring businesses that have quietly compounded at 12–20%+ annually for decades.

@ToffCap Yeah that seems to be the way these days. Bring up anything sub $1bil MC and people look at you like you are grifter trading penny stocks.

Title of an article I just found: 'A few small caps I'm currently looking at (1/3): GitLab' ($GTLB has a $8bn market cap)

@TreadAthletics Do you have data on how long pitchers stay in AAA v. other positions?

I’m not sure if everyone realizes just how close AAA talent is to the MLB. Virtually any pitcher carving against AAA hitters could be performing at the MLB level. At that point, it’s less about could they do it, and more about how consistent could they be? Especially given the increased pressure, spotlight, etc.

Sometimes it works out. globenewswire.com/news-release/2…

@DownTraining Amen. 2% chance your kid gets a D-1 scholarship. 100% chance of installing Passion Resilience Integrity Discipline and Expectation to succeed in life (PRIDE) with the right coach.

brain hasn’t developed yet. And if all they see is coaches cussing at other coaches, yelling at kids on the field, fighting parents, fighting coaches… the behavior is going to be normalized and they will carry that attitude into their daily life. In youth football we need to be

I’m DISGUSTED In Youth Football…

@BillBrewsterTBB My K/1 flag kids asked me if I played video games…I told them they are my video game.

I’m coaching 5-7 year old flag this year. Most fun I’ve had yet. Woke up smiling. Going to be comedy gold.

@strassa2 I’ll take my shares in kind

So now that we, as tax payers, own 10% of Intel, who is managing those shares? Are we voting our shares? Say the stock goes up to 100 tmrw who decides whether to sell or not? Are we going to pass legislation favorable to Intel because we own a piece of it?

@orrdavid *bad bowler.

These are my two favorite movie heroes. I'm not trying to be edgy. I genuinely think it's crazy that people see them as villains.

@AKWilk I'm just glad I still have my...ellipses.

It’s getting very easy to spot who is using ChatGPT to write their stuff. ChatGPT has a very specific way of wording things and constructing sentences that is just being copied and pasted. Some people can’t even be bothered to delete the occasional bold text and hyphens versus commas that is found in GPT responses.