ToffCap

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ToffCap

ToffCap

@ToffCap

Looking at LOTS of companies and sharing ideas | Research at https://t.co/e3LfxHIihJ

Katılım Ağustos 2020
659 Takip Edilen19.6K Takipçiler
ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
Yuck can’t remember so much hurt in the portfolio 🤮
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
@ToffCap @James_Duade if you ever end up taking the time to research and have questions, always happy to answer
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
If you're reading this in a Q1 fund letter: "We have been actively repositioning the portfolio in 2025 in anticipation of AI-driven disruption to legacy enterprise and SaaS [...]. Taiwan remains our largest country exposure" but the fund's Q1 return was 1.0% (!!)... wtf did these people do??
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
Another one. You read this in an investor letter. What do you think?
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GrumpierByTheDay
GrumpierByTheDay@GrumpierBTDay·
I don't like posting gain porn. It's uncouth. But I can't share this with anybody in my real life (sans my wife), so y'all are going to get it today. This is a huge milestone - my first 6 figure day. I started tracking my finances in Feb 2022, when I had a net worth of $36,539 and a brokerage account value of $11,860. Today's gain alone exceeds my entire net worth as of Jan '24. It's not just thanks to gains - I maintained a 50% savings rate until Aug of last year. Nevertheless, the magic of compounding, built on independent thinking and research, and the ability to take mindful and intelligent risk, has done incredible things. Deeply grateful to both @Comm_Invest and @majgeoinvesting who have been my biggest influences and educators over the years.
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
@GrumpierBTDay Thank YOU for continuing to post on so many interesting names! (And respect for the weighting)
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GrumpierByTheDay
GrumpierByTheDay@GrumpierBTDay·
Thank you Toff! When I first started I never imagined I'd find myself in such a rich community of PMs, analysts, researchers, and traders. You were one of the first sophisticated accounts I found when I landed here on X. Love your process for surfacing opportunity and have taken notes!
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
Every now and then I read write-ups where I agree on the thesis but think it would be insane to act on it. Like $ASTS 's recent short pitch on VIC. Sure execution is important, but 90% of the 'valuation' here is storytelling. So what if they'll miss a quarter or two. Look at the projections. The base for valuation here is not fundamentals, it's faith. Missing a few quarters is not going to break the thesis at all. That won't be enough to break believers' faith. Because that's what is needed to break such stories. Faith needs to be crushed. And that can take a long ass time. And what if in the meantime they'll beat a quarter?
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
For those involved, Comstock's $LODE CEO buying 'the dip'
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
If I had a nickel for everytime a client said "it's over" over the past decade
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ToffCap retweetledi
KEDM.com
KEDM.com@KEDM_COM·
Volume 13 of KEDM Lite is out! As usual, it's packed with actionable event-driven trades and special situations. Go to KEDM.com and grab yours!
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
Whenever there's a very strong move on earnings, I always check it out and almost always add / buy. From experience I know that the market generally doesn't price strong news properly. At best, most often the share price will only reflect the earnings dynamics, but not any multiple rerating. And in case of VERY strong earnings (such as $EVC) the market will not even price those properly, leaving plenty to go for the price on both earnings and multiple rerating. People in it for a trade will sell down on the massive move. Those that made a bundle might also, as the position becomes too large. And others who missed it are biased in buying something that already ran so much. This often leads to a few days of 'pressure', and a good moment to add. And then the market does its work.
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
The latest KEDM is 🔥🔥👌 "Switzerland exists so that the Italians can’t place any artillery on the German border and vice versa. Belgium exists so that the Dutch and the French don’t have to share a border. The Netherlands, in turn, exists because the Brits don’t want to have the Germans on the other side of the canal with their U-boats. Ukraine exists so that the Germans can’t march on Moscow in less than a day. And maybe Europe exists in its current form because the US didn’t want the Russians or the Germans controlling the other side of the Atlantic."
KEDM.com@KEDM_COM

The new KEDM is out! In this week's publication, we are condensing thousands of years of European history into a couple of memes. (What could go wrong?) Of course, our interest is in the investment implications. And as usual, plenty of event-driven actions.

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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
Very interesting read from Open Square's Q1 letter. +48% in Q1 🔥🔥 Lots of 🛢️🛢️
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ToffCap
ToffCap@ToffCap·
Portfolio in the red??! The markets are truly broken
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