brax

@paper_alfa Lower rates? Agreed but hurting.

@BraxResearch Read my previous tweet

Central bank reaction functions are now clear. The trade after the trade starts now

Despite the dovish market reaction, I'm sniffing out a hawkish skew at the BOC.

Everyone talking 1970s but I'm thinking 1990s.

@JackFarley96 mosler

Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation

@rev_cap What's your target or what signposts do you need to see to get out?

@rev_cap Are you still long bonds? Asking because I'm close to capitulating on my shorts. Price action last few weeks has made no sense unless its AI disrupting labor and thats a thesis that bond bears can't immediately disprove.

@compoundpapi Woodbridge Ontario could ice a better team of Italians

@compoundpapi Di Giuseppe disrespect will not be tolerated

@taobanker Wait what... all of that to say you want to buy long bonds again?

I thought yields were heading lower when trump was elected until bessent said the plan is to run it hot and grow our way out now i think it's another asymmetric opportunity to take a stab at the long bond , probably with calls

i have honestly had at least as good commentary on a strategic view of the long bond as anyone else. my assessment was forged in the depths of fixed income hell. I listened to every lacy hunt interview since the GFC. Some of them I listened to over 20 times. It was an autistic

"EU and others are forced to protect against dumping Chinese goods, China would immediately experience a currency crisis"... this is the only part that isn't easy to follow for me. How does it jump to currency crisis? Yes China trade surplus shrinks, but stays *positive* and so China probably avoids balance of payments crisis. Plus it's a currency peg and market trusts the currency peg, and even if trust was tested I don't think market would even have enough sustained firepower to fight a peg that's backed by reserve monster PBOC. Market would probably eat a big loss early as PBOC makes an example, and then market gives up testing it again for a very long time. What's your path from "EU protecting" to "China currency crisis"? Am I missing a profound shift in some other dominant currency driver?

This type analysis,suggesting that China is in a stronger, structural position, loses the macro forest for the micro trees. With outstanding credit growing at 8%+ and nom GDP <4%, it requires only a marginal loss of revenue for debt ratios to go pear-shaped. Despite China’s large trade surplus and capital controls, the RMB remains on a knife-edge, a difficult and expensive-to-control variable that Beijing has foolishly hung the credibility of the system on. If the US were to slap a high tariff on China (no it wasn’t 55% on most goods) as well as effectively restrict transshipping (an open agenda item), causing a domino effect whereby the EU and others are forced to protect against dumping Chinese goods, China would immediately experience a currency crisis. That, in turn, would undercut its ability to create credit freely to avoid a balance sheet crisis. That China resorted to the heavy-handed threat of rare earth export controls tells you all you need to know about how concerned they were about these vulnerabilities. Yes, they wielded insurmountable power in the short term, but at significant longer-term costs. The West’s vulnerability will fade over time, assuming some modicum of ability to execute an industrial plan for rare earths. China’s vulnerability is only getting worse.

Steepener trailing returns are a little bit extended but not yet extreme.

Atlanta Fed: all 9 "core" inflation measures are well above 2% target

US yield curve steepeners look extended and crowded going into Friday event...

New Fed Chair will get 4 meetings to cut between May 2026 appointment and Nov 2026 midterm elections. Unlikely for Powell to pull forward material rate cuts knowing that another 100bps of cuts will come immediately after he leaves.

US airlines are better businesses than they’ve historically been. Consolidation led to a more rational industry. Low-cost carriers can no longer arbitrage labor costs given new union contracts and wage inflation. Spirit is gone, Jetblue is struggling, Southwest has an activist. Multiyear supply constraints (planes + parts) will limit new entrants. Mgmt has shifted from growth at any cost to a return on capital mindset. Mgmt finally exploring how to monetize super profitable rewards programs. Loyalty and premium have never been this large ahead of a potential downturn.