Brett Kessler

The takeaway: You can ignore a bad quarter when the broader macro thesis is completely backstopped by federal capital and a mandate for U.S. quantum supremacy. I am a buyer on this weakness.

The fundamental math is undeniable. You do not fade a company that the federal government has deemed a critical national security asset for the next era of frontier technology. We saw what happened to Intel when the government stepped in; they will not let their flagship domestic fabricators lose. IBM is structurally locking in the physical hardware layer for the quantum revolution.

IBM's $IBM preliminary Q2 earnings were terrible, but I am still aggressively buying the stock here. Retail sees the 7% drop in infrastructure revenue and the management miss. The Trump administration just backed them with a massive $1 billion grant, and we know exactly what happened to Intel. 🧵

The takeaway: You do not ignore the undisputed king of global finance when they report tomorrow, especially as they close in on a historic trillion dollar valuation. The tone they set will dictate the next institutional move.

The fundamental math is undeniable. Jamie Dimon and his team have absolute, real time visibility into global transaction flows, consumer credit card spending, and institutional deal making. Tomorrow’s print isn't just a bank earnings report; it is the definitive roadmap for the entire global liquidity cycle going into the back half of the year.

I am incredibly excited for JPMorgan $JPM to report earnings tomorrow morning. Retail is still obsessing over daily macro data points. This report is going to give us the absolute best feel for exactly where the economy is with money. 🧵

The takeaway: You do not fade an enterprise data monopoly when they are actively becoming the non-negotiable data layer for the AI revolution. I let the volatility push me out at the exact wrong time.

The fundamental math is undeniable right now. They just expanded massive enterprise AI partnerships with companies like Sanofi and Thomson Reuters, and their forward guidance is calling for an explosive 30% year over year product revenue growth. The stock has ripped from the $130s back up near $270, and the institutional capital is pouring back in.

As an investor, sometimes you just get things completely wrong. I am watching Snowflake $SNOW absolutely rip, and I am kicking myself. I sold my position right near the bottom, and I seriously wish I still held 10-15% of this in my portfolio. Here is why I messed up. 🧵

The takeaway: You do not blindly buy into a $2 trillion valuation right before early insiders are legally allowed to dump multiples of the current float onto the open market. I am being incredibly patient here to catch the capitulation flush down to 100.

The fundamental math is undeniable. Even after pulling back from its highs, $SPCX is still sitting near a staggering $2 trillion valuation. While their monopoly on launch capabilities and Starlink cash flow is absolute, the sheer volume of insider shares coming online over the next few months will completely overwhelm the passive index bid and drag the premium back down to reality.

I really want to make SpaceX $SPCX a decent percentage of my portfolio. Retail chased the massive $1.77 trillion IPO in June and rode it all the way up to $225. I am going to wait around until it gets to the $100 level, because I absolutely believe we will see those levels. 🧵

The takeaway: You do not fade a ride hailing monopoly that successfully outsourced the most capital intensive part of its business while capturing all of the global demand. Allocating 20% of my capital here is an aggressive, high conviction move.

The fundamental math is undeniable. By abandoning their own expensive in house self driving division and pivoting to this hybrid marketplace model, Uber is structurally positioned to collect massive, software like margins per ride while passing all the depreciation and hardware risk onto their partners. They are effectively becoming the high margin, asset light operating system for the entire autonomous revolution.

I hate to say it, but I think I am going to make Uber $UBER 20% of my portfolio come Monday. I recently thought they were going to get completely destroyed by Waymo and Tesla. I am now incredibly bullish on everything they are doing and their total dominance in the future of autonomous driving. 🧵