Brett Kessler

Global policymakers are staring down the barrel of an uncontrollable situation. They are simultaneously attempting to devalue the dollar, suppress bond yields and manipulate commodity prices lower. They have succeeded in the short-term and it has felt like crack cocaine for global equity markets. The stock market strength has masqueraded behind the "AI singularity" narrative as there has been no other obvious reason for such a large equity move amidst the background of such a worsening supply chain backdrop. This is leaving most market participants unaware of what is really going on under the hood. Why it is about to become uncontrollable, however, is due to the nature of the beast. All of the government interventionist tactics I listed above are economically stimulative and financial condition loosening. 1. Suppressing the dollar eases global liquidity (on top of already ~$500B in ongoing Fed QE disguised as 'RMPs') and sends stocks higher, creating a positive wealth effect, reinforcing growth and inflation. 2. Suppressing bond yields makes financing costs cheaper all else equal for businesses and consumers, reinforcing growth and inflation. 3. Manipulating commodity prices lower provides stimulus for businesses and consumers, avoiding the higher prices required to force demand destruction and bring on more production, reinforcing growth and inflation. All of this is occurring during a man made commodity supply shock. This is like putting your car into cruise control at 100 mph into a brick wall and has justifiable comparisons to COVID. The incredible amount they are 'pushing on a string' has become so extreme that it would not surprise me to see escalation in the war very soon as a means to reintroduce economic uncertainty and ensure physical commodity shortages in an attempt to dampen economic demand to try to stymie growth and inflation in the short-term. For all of the criticisms this administration has laid upon predecessors, they are setting new records for market intervention, manipulation and suppression of free market forces, particularly a a time when the economy is consistently growing >5% nominal GDP and asset prices make new all-time highs. They are purposefully and knowingly blowing a massive financial market bubble in an attempt to smooth over cracks elsewhere in geopolitical and approval/ratings problems. This is extremely dangerous and inappropriate behavior and policy that will come back to bite much harder than it would if they took the pain now. It is such a nuanced corner of the economy and markets that even most investors, traders and participants will either 1) not know what I'm talking about or 2) dismiss it, however that should not stop people from speaking up about what is happening. Global policymakers need to either 1) stop recklessly juicing liquidity and stimulating markets, manipulating the cost of capital and suppressing free market commodity prices or 2) face a 1970s style inflation resurgence. This is exactly what was done in 2020/2021 so it should be a surprise to no one when the 2022 repercussions present themselves again. We are on the precipice of a new and highly eventful chapter of economic history.

The takeaway: You cannot build enterprise AI without massively capital-intensive infrastructure. Amazon is using an impenetrable logistics network and a massive ad business ($70B TTM) to aggressively subsidize the physical layer of the future internet. The AWS multiple has room to run. Reprice accordingly.

Look at the physical moat. While the market obsesses over $NVDA GPU bottlenecks, Amazon's custom silicon business (Trainium, Graviton, Nitro) quietly crossed a 20B revenue run rate. They are vertically integrating the AI stack from the foundational models straight down to the actual silicon.

Amazon $AMZN just dropped a monster Q1 2026 ($181.5B revenue, EPS $2.78). If you are only looking at retail margins and delivery speeds, you are missing the real thesis. This isn't just an e-commerce giant; it is the ultimate physical AI infrastructure play.

The takeaway: $GOOG is priced like a legacy ad business fighting off disruption, but the unit economics show a hyper-scaler capturing the entire AI stack—from the energy grid to the security layer. A 10T valuation isn't a pipe dream; it's just the math on compounded cloud dominance. Reprice accordingly.

Look at the infrastructure moat. While others build software wrappers, Google is buying the physical layer. They just dropped $30B on Wiz for AI-driven cloud security and $6B on Intersect to secure renewable energy for their data centers. You cannot compete with an AI company that owns its own power supply and custom silicon (TPUs).

Alphabet $GOOGL just printed an absurd Q1 2026 ($110B revenue, EPS up 82%) and currently sits around a $4.2T market cap. The path to 5T and eventually 10T isn't about defending their Search monopoly. It’s about owning the physical and digital AI grid.

The takeaway: Stop valuing $INTC strictly on next quarter's gross margins and start pricing in its geopolitical necessity. The enterprise AI boom requires a secure, onshore physical layer. Intel is the only scaled game in town. Reprice accordingly.

The National Security Premium: You cannot wage a global AI arms race if your entire physical compute supply chain sits 100 miles off the coast of China via TSMC. Enterprise giants are realizing this. Tesla just signed as the first major customer for Intel's 14A node, and Google is expanding their custom silicon deal. Dual-sourcing domestically is now a governance mandate.

Intel $INTC just delivered a massive Q1 beat (Rev $13.6B, Non-GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 expected) and the stock ripped 27% pre-markets. But the retail market is misreading the narrative. This isn't just a simple turnaround story, it is the repricing of a sovereign asset. 🧵

The takeaway: $NOW is an incredibly sticky compliance utility, but the hyper-growth AI premium is mispriced. They are pivoting hard via M&A to stay relevant as an "AI control tower." The disruption is real, and the multiple will continue to compress.

So why isn't enterprise churn spiking today? Governance. Ripping out a central system of record like $NOW means breaking highly entrenched System and Organization Controls (SOC) and failing Agreed-Upon Procedures (AUP). You can't deploy a rogue AI agent if it destroys your regulatory audit trails.

ServiceNow $NOW just printed a beat and raise Q1 (Rev $3.77B, raised 2026 guidance), yet the stock dropped 12% after hours. Why? The market is realizing they are buying top-line growth to mask structural AI disruption. Here is the real story on their workflow moat. 🧵