Eric Brewer

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Eric Brewer

Eric Brewer

@BrewerEricM

Deputy VP @NTI_WMD. Previously NSC Director for Counterproliferation, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for WMD. Personal account/views my own.

Washington, DC Katılım Haziran 2016
1.3K Takip Edilen7.5K Takipçiler
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
Some preliminary thoughts on the relationship between Iran’s nuclear program (the “nuclear crisis”) and the Israel-Hamas war and related dynamics (the “regional crisis”). 🧵 It would be too much of a stretch to say the current war is unfolding under the “nuclear shadow”…1/
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
If Ali Khamenei were alive, he’d be prosecuting this war in exactly the same way:
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
Whatever your views of the war, the American people deserve better than Secretary Hegseth. This is not a political rally. Americans have died and more may die too. Seriousness, responsibility, and humility are in order. Not chest-thumping and insulting those who would dare ask critical questions.
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
This is an incredibly important data point. The IC confirming not just that it knows where Iran’s enriched uranium is located, but that it has “high confidence” in that assessment.
Olivia Gazis@Olivia_Gazis

@jahimes COHEN: Does the IC know where Iran's enriched uranium is? GABBARD: The IC has high confidence that we know where it is. [...] COHEN: We have methods of destroying it? GABBARD: This is a conversation for a closed setting, sir.

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Olivia Gazis
Olivia Gazis@Olivia_Gazis·
@jahimes Ratcliffe: U.S. intelligence indicated after Midnight Hammer that Iran's leaders had "not lost their ambition and that the activities to rebuild or reconstitute their nuclear facilities and centrifuges, there's a body of intelligence that I think confirms that"
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Olivia Gazis
Olivia Gazis@Olivia_Gazis·
@jahimes Gabbard says the U.S. intelligence community has "high confidence" it knows where Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile is. She declines to say in open session whether the U.S. has a means of destroying it.
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Olivia Gazis
Olivia Gazis@Olivia_Gazis·
@jahimes COHEN: Does the IC know where Iran's enriched uranium is? GABBARD: The IC has high confidence that we know where it is. [...] COHEN: We have methods of destroying it? GABBARD: This is a conversation for a closed setting, sir.
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laurence norman
laurence norman@laurnorman·
Interesting assertion from @rafaelmgrossi “One, most notably, the inventory of enriched uranium at 60%, which is very close to the degree you need to make a bomb, that is going to still be where it is, largely--“
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laurence norman
laurence norman@laurnorman·
@rafaelmgrossi “…for an agreement that presupposes that you can have 20%, this is three or four times more what the JCPOA was permitting. You remember, the level of enrichment agreed in the JCPOA was 3.6. In general, enrichment--“ @rafaelmgrossi -4-
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laurence norman
laurence norman@laurnorman·
🔥🔥On the record. @rafaelmgrossi gets to the real point on where talks were in Geneva Feb 26th. “That should tell you that there were very significant, if not disagreements, there was no alignment on what we- what many of the things that were discussed that really meant.” 🔥🔥
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
Join me and my @NTI_WMD colleagues for a virtual discussion next Thursday at 11am about the implications of the war for Iran’s nuclear program.
Eric Brewer tweet media
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Kim Ghattas
Kim Ghattas@KimGhattas·
The gloves are off....Very tough statement by Saudi FM @FaisalbinFarhan about the destruction wrought by Iran across the region, now and in prior years via its proxy militias. Saudi-Iran détente signed in March 2023, always a mere tactical move, served its purposes for two years, but is now definitively dead.
قناة الإخبارية@alekhbariyatv

وزير الخارجية الأمير فيصل بن فرحان: - ما هي مساهمات إيران في قضايا العالم الإسلامي؟ دعم ميليشيا الحوثي في اليمن, ودعم ميليشيا الحشد الشعبي في العراق والتي تهاجم العراق نفسه, دعم ميليشيا حزب الله في لبنان - أين نصرة إيران لقضايا العالم الإسلامي؟ وهي من دعمت ارتكاب النظام السابق في سوريا للجرائم واغتيال السياسيين في لبنان وتمكين ميليشيات الحشد الشعبي لمصادرة القرار السياسي في العراق - أين نصرة إيران للقضايا الإسلامية؟ لا أراه للأسف وهي شعارات تختبئ خلفها وبأدوات لحماية مصالحهم فقط

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Gregg Carlstrom
Gregg Carlstrom@glcarlstrom·
The Iranian theory of the war boils down to "everyone else has a lot more to lose than we do". A question that should follow: what if that's true, but it doesn't end up mattering on a timetable that's helpful to the regime? There's a scenario in which the world staggers out of this with a prolonged energy crisis that does enormous damage to the global economy *and* things end very, very badly for the regime and Iran as a whole.
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Gregg Carlstrom
Gregg Carlstrom@glcarlstrom·
Because it's often getting lost in the discussion here, this is a partial list of Iran's attacks on energy *before* the Israeli strike on South Pars: - Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar - Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi - hundreds of drone attacks on Saudi oil fields - Ruwais refinery in Abu Dhabi - Shah gas field in Abu Dhabi - port of Fujairah - Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain The list goes on. Point is that, yes, South Pars was an escalation in American/Israeli targeting, but it comes after weeks of Iranian attacks on GCC energy infrastructure.
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Shashank Joshi
Shashank Joshi@shashj·
If you were Iran, you would take this as a sign that the retaliatory strikes on Qatar were highly effective in restoring some sort of deterrence.
Alex Ward@alexbward

Trump says U.S. “knew nothing” about Israel’s attack on South Pars. Trump knew and supported it, as we reported today, seeing it as a message to Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz. He then decided no more attacks on Iranian energy sites (which he semi-confirms re: South Pars).

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laurence norman
laurence norman@laurnorman·
Eric is right that it’s not a contradiction. But it is still an extra gradient away from imminence. They weren’t enriching. They weren’t trying to enrich. They were intending to try to enrich.
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM

The nuance here is very interesting and I’m not sure there’s an actual contradiction. A similar line appears in the text of the report, but uses the (tortured) phrase “intending to try to recover” (“intending to try to recover from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure sustained during”). So it’s possible she misspoke (or intentionally dropped the caveat) and the real answer is Iran plans to rebuild but hasn’t actually done so. I’d also go with what’s in the report as the authoritative IC position rather than her remarks (in a normal world, there shouldn’t be a delta, but we’re not in a normal world).

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Richard Nephew
Richard Nephew@RichardMNephew·
The @WSJ's latest Iran editorial suggested an inevitable Iranian march to acquire nuclear weapons that only force could prevent, but that's just not what the evidence suggests. @BulletinAtomic published some of my thoughts. thebulletin.org/2026/03/revisi…
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
@laurnorman I’m intending to try to exercise five days a week. It’s “concepts of a plan” territory.
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Eric Brewer
Eric Brewer@BrewerEricM·
The nuance here is very interesting and I’m not sure there’s an actual contradiction. A similar line appears in the text of the report, but uses the (tortured) phrase “intending to try to recover” (“intending to try to recover from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure sustained during”). So it’s possible she misspoke (or intentionally dropped the caveat) and the real answer is Iran plans to rebuild but hasn’t actually done so. I’d also go with what’s in the report as the authoritative IC position rather than her remarks (in a normal world, there shouldn’t be a delta, but we’re not in a normal world).
Julie Tsirkin@news_jul

NEWS: Gabbard said the IC assessed “Iran was trying to recover from the severe damage to its nuclear infrastructure” — matching the WH position on the war’s origins BUT per her own prepared remarks, Gabbard was going to say Iran was NOT rebuilding its nuclear enrichment program

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Keşfet

@jahimes @rafaelmgrossi @NTI_WMD @FaisalbinFarhan @WSJ @BulletinAtomic @laurnorman @elonmusk