BrianLeshak

AURORA UPDATE: Science-y post: let’s talk about the visible APPEARANCE/“STRUCTURE” of the aurora you may get to see if a G4 “severe” geomagnetic storm occurs TONIGHT. (That's the current forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center). Auroras are located 60-150+ miles above the ground in the thermosphere, high above the ozone layer. The reason we see glowing gases (plasma) is because gas molecules are “excited” by a bombardment of energetic solar particles. Stronger/more energetic solar particles burrow deeper into our atmosphere. The strongest ones ionize nitrogen molecules (N2), causing hues of violet or even blue. Weaker ones can’t make it as deep, and ionize oxygen. The lowest-energy particles, corresponding to the highest part of the atmosphere (since they can’t penetrate as deep), cause red. That’s why the aurora isn’t one color. A single pillar may be blue or purple at the bottom, then mostly green above, and frosted with pink or red at the top! If you live in far northern areas, you’ll see a mix of everything, especially green, IF the aurora manages to shimmer overhead. You might even see the “corona” effect as you stand directly beneath auroral pillars/columns. The motion will be impressive… reminiscent of garments on a laundry line fluttering in the breeze. Most folks across the north central U.S. will probably see green columns of varying vibrancy. You may see some red at the top. And lastly, those in southern areas will see mainly a red glow. Why? You’re the farthest away, so you can only see the top of the aurora. And it’s red! That’s why most photos from the southern United States have shown only a red “homogenous arc.” You won’t see any motion either.

SOLAR STORM ONGOING: Based on the strong decrease in both low and high energy protons, we are now in a more stable, core structure of the CME. The magnetic field is currently pinned in the +Bz (north) direction, which is generally not ideal for aurora, but due to the overall strength of the CME, secondary components are able to maintain some degree of life within the auroral currents. Long term, this method can prevent aurora from stretching as far south and being as active/vibrant. There is still an opportunity for the Bz component to flip southward based on different magnetic configuration scenarios. So unfortunately, more waiting is still required.

Breaking through the 9s! Look at the Hp 30 index go!!! 9.67 and climbing as the solar storm intensifies. G5 conditions are possible today, but it would be ideal for the Bz to turn back south for that scenario. Truly incredible numbers today on all space weather metrics!

Here in the DMV we routinely don’t acknowledge name changes of landmarks. We call it National Airport. We still call it FedEx Field. Some folks still call the arena MCI Center. And no matter what corporate sponsor Commanders pick, we’re calling it RFK. Kennedy Center forever.