Under the "make new mistakes, don't repeat the old one's" file, selling a stock you think is worth $20 at $12 because you sat with it and tortured yourself for 4 years at $4 and were giddy with a rebound is...filed as mistake #23.
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Jeffrey Bronchick
2.7K posts
Jeffrey Bronchick
@BronchickJ
Investment Manager, Writer, Husband, Father, Guitar Player - the order changes daily.
Hermosa Beach, California Katılım Kasım 2020
394 Takip Edilen406 Takipçiler
@BuffaloBillCo You havent done the math on country clubs and travel. Or “what age are we talking.” And..dare I say…the proper mental frame is…”divide by 2 and then ask what is the number.”
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Increasingly certain the core problem with our society is its run by a bunch of mentally ill psychopaths whose primary motivation is success for the sake of success. Anyone who doesn’t quit their job to play golf and drink after hitting $10M should be put in an insane asylum
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_
This is the type of person you have to be to get hired at Citadel Ken Griffin once asked a Harvard graduate with a Citadel offer letter what he would do if he had $10 million in his bank account The young man replied that he would quit his job to travel and climb the highest peaks around the world Ken Griffin responded by saying that Citadel was not the right fit for him
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And this is why nobody reads Rolling Stone anymore
Robin Monotti@robinmonotti
Rolling Stone moved Eric Clapton down from the top 10 of greatest guitar players of all time to 35 because he admitted to being Covid "vaccine" injured & refused to discriminate on entry to his concerts based on "vaccine" status. They even admit the reasoning in the explanation!
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@robinmonotti He was too busy working with Roger Waters on the old English anti-semetic rock start program
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Rolling Stone moved Eric Clapton down from the top 10 of greatest guitar players of all time to 35 because he admitted to being Covid "vaccine" injured & refused to discriminate on entry to his concerts based on "vaccine" status. They even admit the reasoning in the explanation!
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@CliffordAsness @JamesSurowiecki once a new yorker writer, always a new yorker writer.
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@JamesSurowiecki This is a pathetic transparent effort to run cover for the incompetent socialist Warren. Do better.
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If JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit had been approved, there's a good chance JetBlue would now be headed into bankruptcy, too.
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Not incorrect but incomplete. People will ALWAYS flock to the idea they should have done 3 years ago and take comfort in “that guy must have done the work on this firm so it’s ok.” Yes, it’s better than 20 years ago, but Show up with great performance and the level of diligence drops like a stone. And still…running math on trailing performance vs actually spending the time to be “in office” and interview principals and team is “soft work” and crucial. Big pools of money often have small teams and outsource to the consensus of consultants and their revolving chair of bodies. I suggest the obvious, the smarter go to the money, and retain the ability to raise money with impunity. :)
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"The hedge fund industry is the most honest end of finance — the opposite of what the media tells you."
Tom Costello — ex-Tudor PM, ex-Caxton, ex-Moore Capital — explains:
"You go to the same 500 or 2,000 institutional clients. They know exactly what you're doing and how you're doing it."
"They can deconstruct your portfolio without knowing anything except the results."
"Show me your results and your general holding period, and I can deconstruct absolutely everything you do."
"Every story you tell a potential investor needs to be the truth. That's the critical success point."
"If you're viewed as being dishonest in any way, you're never going to succeed."
"Mark-to-market accounting is what does that to us."
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho
"I haven't seen a real new idea in trading in at least 15 years." Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Built one of the first NLP-driven equity systems in 2003. 20 years managing capital, never had a down year. "Comparing what a retail trader does to what a quantitative hedge fund does is like comparing driving a bus on the New Jersey Turnpike to winning a Formula One race." We cover: - His hot take: no genuinely new trading idea in 15 years — only better people doing the same things faster - Why everyone in quant finance is a genius — and why that makes you ordinary, not special - Crypto is "super smart guys cosplaying at finance" — built for retail, which is exactly why it's the easiest money in finance right now - Why AGI won't beat the hedge fund industry — all the readily-capturable alpha is already captured - The status trap: why the path that made Paul Tudor Jones a billionaire won't work for the kid trying to copy it in 2026 - His friend the investment banker who'd quit it all to run a 10-employee ambulance supply company worth $150M - Why excitement is "wildly overbid" in finance — and why wanting an exciting trading job is itself a disqualifier - The most honest end of the financial industry — and why the media has it exactly backwards Thanks so much to Tom for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers 03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns 04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value 08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market 13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs 25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 2026 30:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection 33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund 35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage 38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years 50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions 59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up 1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype 1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns
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WFC: A former holding once the penalty shock was over. The timing of this move at this stage in the cycle smells vintage Citibank? And…look at BK while he was there and then after. Hmm.
Following its release from a Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap last year, Wells Fargo has joined its peers above the $2 trillion total asset mark. And in particular, it has been adding the kinds of assets that are fuel for the business of Wall Street. In the first quarter of this year, Wells Fargo’s average trading-related assets were up by more than 40% from the same time last year, the company reported.
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Further Crap at QVC BK. Previously undisclosed payments intra subsidiaries is properly perturbing the preferred holders who are scheduled to be zeroed. Write this down: preferred securities are the sister kisser if you are contemplating or finding yourself in a levered balance sheet. Either pass, own the most senior paper or speculate small in the equity. Pre-bk, owning the preferred rarely helps. :) Former holding, great spectator sport evolving here.
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No matter what a disaster you might think is the State of California, until you read this you have no idea how far you have overestimated us. Voter Information Guide | California Secretary of State voterguide.sos.ca.gov
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But yesterday we did. Barclays won’t lend to those “who operate more vulnerable business models, and cannot convince us of the quality and independence of their financial controls,” Chief Executive C. S. Venkatakrishnan told analysts.
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@BoringBiz_ This is how you wind up working at your father in law’s restaurant.
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I am call this out as dumb. Shorter term performance comes and goes in maddeningly elusive cycles. What do you know about someone’s life? Health? What do you know about 9 figure net worth and being 60? Have you actually read Hamlet? Ricky Sandler decisions mean something for Ricky Sandler, nothing else. What has changed is global attention span. It will change again.
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@LuckyStuey @redrum_2001 Right Sir. Not a prayer the math works.
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@redrum_2001 Although execution remains a major risk, and I agree demand is available, my thesis is that even with perfect execution their costs per unit of capacity delivered remain infeasibly high. This is where they lose to the competition by a wide margin.
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$ASTS - Now that AST have the FCC approval, the only risk remaining is execution*.
That risk probably also holds back how the market values the FCC approval.
Once AST starts shipping satellites on a regular basis, that could change very quickly.
I expect batch shipments of 3 satellites a time starting in the coming weeks. That’s when I expect the true value of the FCC approval to materialise.
*I don’t consider demand a risk.
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I would say a group of smart, young analysts based in India are going to be zero help in evaluating which money manager to hire to execute a mandate. As to the "why"? I think we can guess.
CityWire:
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s gatekeeper unit has bolstered its team in India over the past year-and-a-half, with analysts based in the country joining in on calls with US asset managers since at least January, Citywire has learned.
The wirehouse’s Global Investment Manager Analysis (GIMA) team now has at least 13 analysts based in India, all of whom were either hired or moved into their roles from other functions from October 2024 onward. Per LinkedIn, at least seven analysts joined the team in 2025 with another six joining in 2024. They are covering a mix of traditional investments, fixed income and hedge funds. Most appear to be at the analyst or associate level.
According to sources familiar with the situation, the analysts in India are joining calls with asset managers, largely listening in as the US-based lead analyst introduces them and conducts the meetings.
It is unclear why Morgan Stanley has ramped up its Indian analyst team and the firm declined to provide comment or answer question for this article.
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I think looking at how hot dogs are made is going to look better than the process by which marks are invented.
The SEC, Treasury and bank regulators are ramping up inquiries into the $3 trillion private-credit industry amid investor angst.
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We own CNS.(See usual disclosures on our website if bored.) From their last call was a good line.
"Investors should use a broader toolkit with some private exposure when it provides unique exposure or an illiquidity premium. But in a highly uncertain world, where the old models may not work, the cost of illiquidity is very high and should be used thoughtfully rather than just for quarterly statement diversification."
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@mastersinvest But you cant stop writing quarterly letters after a down 23. Just sayin.
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'Drawdowns and reassessments are not interruptions to the process of compounding. They are part of what it looks like in real time.'
'Everything seems obvious in hindsight. In real time, investing looks very different: knowledge is incomplete, conditions change, and prices often move far more than business value. That is what makes investing difficult, but it is also what creates the possibility of mispricing.'
'Declining stock prices rarely come with reassuring headlines. When those headlines push market sentiment far beyond what I would consider a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, they can create compelling mispricings.'
- Joe Frankenfield
Mentions: $TTD
Joe Frankenfield@SagaPartners
Saga Partners Q1 2026 Investor Letter: sagapartners.substack.com/p/saga-partner…
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@LuckyStuey Said again. DAT spin makes zero practical sense and would likely be a value Un-enhancer.
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$VSAT as I posted yesterday, it was quite strange that Viasat hid the great news about the F2 reflector successful "bloom" in a thread about the F3 launch, but knowing management like I do (in general - I haven't spoken with anyone in management recently), I think they're just being cautious until fully deployment is confirmed.
The statement also said several weeks of additional testing, which does run-up against Mark's previous public statement that F2 would enter service in May.
I suspect late-May can be the best we could expect, probably after the next earnings call in mid-May.
Nevertheless, all catalysts are positive to-date in 2026, spectrum assets are still undervalued within the current market cap and EV, Equatys announcement is expected in May (with $RKLB as a partner) and DAT spin-off possible in 2H26, all lead me to the conclusion that the Jun-2026 $70 Call whale is right (they've already more than doubled their money) and we're looking at $70 floor / target up to $120 by June (full disclosure: I'm also holding May/Jun calls that I bought much cheaper in early-2026).
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@RickyDoggin Any person over the age of 40 can say the same thing about almost any top 50 MSA. Hermosa is still Hermosa…a chill beachtown without decent sushi!
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I grew up going to Hermosa Beach. Nothing like this ever happened.
Hermosa Beach 2nd Weekend “Takeover” Ends in Familiar Chaos as Fatigue Sets In
Hermosa Beach, California ran the experiment two weekends in a row: large coordinated “teen takeovers” that start as beach energy and end as predictable disorder.
Thousands gather. Music blares. The boardwalk fills up. And somewhere in the middle of all that, the situation flips from crowded to chaotic as multiple fights break out across the sand and walking paths.
Families and regular beachgoers get pushed to the margins while law enforcement moves in to break up clusters and restore order. Same sequence, different weekend.
At this point, the reaction from the public feels less shocked and more exhausted. The nation is fatigued watching the same scenes repeat under different sunsets, with the only real change being how quickly it escalates.
By night’s end, Hermosa Beach is left with the usual aftermath: scattered trash, viral clips, and officials once again looking for ways to manage gatherings that keep proving they can’t manage themselves.
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@LuckyStuey @coastal8049 It is really hard to imagine how VSAT IR with their history of tone-deaf IR can really think to bury this lede in the last sentence of a somewhat unrelated press release. They are truly a propellorhead org.
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$VSAT seems like an important statement buried in a thread @coastal8049 are you prepared to break your silence or is something preventing you from publicly posting about this topic?
AI summary of this statement is: “Bloom” is the big, risky part — the moment where the reflector goes from a compact launch configuration to a giant dish. If bloom is complete, it means:
The reflector fully unfolded
No stuck hinges
No partial deployment
No structural anomalies
The mechanism that failed on F1 did NOT fail on F2
This is the milestone the market has been waiting for.
Weird there is no market reaction!
Viasat@viasat
In addition, ViaSat-3 F2 in-orbit testing is advancing with the reflector successfully completing bloom. We expect final deployments to be completed over the next several weeks.
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