Brongo

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Brongo

Brongo

@BrongoCS

Creator of https://t.co/W1fBeoD5or: View and simulate your unboxing odds for cases, stickers and souvenirs. Try simulating receiving your favourite skin for free!

Australia Katılım Nisan 2014
1.2K Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@WJW1095797 I recommend using my site CSROI to get an understanding of where value lies and if capsules have a decent price compared to the stickers, and cs2stickertracker.com to get an idea of the stickers applications I'm not comfortable recommending when I haven't researched myself
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🇨🇳.L1ko
🇨🇳.L1ko@WJW1095797·
@BrongoCS Thanks for your reply. What’s your opinion on the long-term status of Copenhagen stickers? They remind me a lot of the 2014 Katowice stickers — they have that same feeling of being something special.😋
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@WJW1095797 I personally have quite a few, we're in a very pessimistic market currently so as long as you have a diversified portfolio I don't think its a bad idea, its just a risky one Low price = more demand for applications If sticker capsules are discontinued, should help old ones
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🇨🇳.L1ko
🇨🇳.L1ko@WJW1095797·
@BrongoCS What’s your opinion on investing in the old borderless stickers from Stockholm, Antwerp, Copenhagen, and Shanghai? Their prices have basically retraced all the way back to where they started🥲
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@theSinedinCS Yup I think we're on the same page, they're genuinely nice looking stickers so I'm sure they'll continue to be used for crafting, especially once/if they're on sale.
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the Sined in CS2
the Sined in CS2@theSinedinCS·
I completely agree with you, and I’ve actually discussed this with quite a few people, it's way too early to make any calls on whether this is going well or badly. As long as the stickers are still available in the in-game store and we haven't seen a sale yet, it's just too early to draw any conclusions. Thanks for bringing this up as well. Based on your previous replies to others, I also agree that even if sales remain slow after a discount hits (though I doubt that'll be the case), we’d almost certainly see a price surge on the SCM shortly after they're removed. If that happens, it’ll heavily impact the next Major, people will be hoarding capsules and stickers by the ton. We’ve seen this exact cycle happen before. I’d also add that despite the relatively low supply on the SCM, crafting numbers with this Major's stickers remain strong. In other words, most people buying them right now are doing so for personal application rather than pure speculation. In my opinion, that's a very healthy sign for their long-term price potential
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@TDM_Jesus 💯Presale figures are higher for capsules as degenerates would still gamble opening them, but now there's 0 incentive to buy early outside of souvenirs being somewhat discounted anyway. If theres still low demand post sale, it'll pump after removal = better demand next major
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TDM_Heyzeus
TDM_Heyzeus@TDM_Jesus·
@BrongoCS I agree, until there's a sale we can't judge this. A lot of demand comes from investors and no-one in their right mind would be investing right now, since a sale could drop at any moment.
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@TheCS2Historian Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it's selling terribly even compared to pre sale for previous majors, I just believe it will improve if theres a sale, either now or next major if these stickers are underbought. People would gamble pre sale with capsules, not with the new system
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TheCS2Historian
TheCS2Historian@TheCS2Historian·
@BrongoCS This is what I have been trying to tell people, but the -100% has stun locked Twitter it seems
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@euphoriaCS2 x.com/csroireal/stat… 2 main options IMO, drop token cost by 75% ($0.25 = 100 tokens) OR they drop the internal target from 125.5 tokens (weighted by rarity) to 31 or something like that. That thread gives a good understanding of how the system works internally
CSROI@csroireal

I weighted those prices like normal capsule outcomes: Paper x125 Foil x25 Holo x5 Gold x1 Across all 772 prices, the shop repeatedly totals around 3,778,554 weighted token points Divide by 193 designs and the combined rarity weight of 156: 3,778,554 / 193 / 156 = 125.5 tokens

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euphoria
euphoria@euphoriaCS2·
@BrongoCS How would a sale work with this dynamic pricing? Changing the algorithm so the price is less affected by demand?
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@ShavvyCS2 Twitter character limit makes it hard to write it all at once, but also the fact that capsules used to give extra supply after a major, that factor could help these investment wise as supply is stuck purely at bought rate.
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@ShavvyCS2 Yea I doubt it'll be capsule level and I don't blame users for not buying yet with these really high prices Interestingly, if sales remain low after a sale, they'll probably be good investments, leading to the next major having better returns if they keep the new system
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@CorrexCS You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@badentryx @csroireal Realistically, there's pretty much 0 reason to buy these items while they're being actively supplied with 0 knowledge of removal. There's so many discontinued options you could put your money into instead, this info is more relevant for those who want to redeem stars and sell
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bad entry
bad entry@badentryx·
people read this as “the collections recovered.” mostly it means unboxing got less bad after the first panic sales. better open math ≠ strong long-term demand. if you’re buying the bounce, ask: did opening get less stupid, or does someone actually want this skin next month at this price?
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Brongo retweetledi
CSROI
CSROI@csroireal·
A few days later update for the NEW armory collections Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61%➡️90% Arabesque - 53%➡️69% Fruits & Veggies - 39%➡️61% Auto Racing - 30%➡️53% Being aware of redemption cost ➡️ unbox value can pay off, many collections improving by 50%.
CSROI tweet media
CSROI@csroireal

The NEW Armory Collections are finally tradable, with some abysmal returns... Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61% Arabesque - 53% Fruits & Veggies - 39% Auto Racing - 30% It seems that all the stars saved for this update produced way too many items for their demand...

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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
In the Spy Tech Collection, Mil-Spec improved the most, 193%! If you're aware of the market this could've lead to a simple 2x (if prices hold after tradehold) I hope you all like the new graphs, many more features OTW for CSROI!
Brongo tweet media
CSROI@csroireal

A few days later update for the NEW armory collections Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61%➡️90% Arabesque - 53%➡️69% Fruits & Veggies - 39%➡️61% Auto Racing - 30%➡️53% Being aware of redemption cost ➡️ unbox value can pay off, many collections improving by 50%.

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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@csgonewb I wouldn't be shocked if we don't see "profitable" armory rewards in a long time, but this low doesn't seem reasonable either.
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Boop
Boop@csgonewb·
@BrongoCS to clarify: long term accumulators are declining (don't see long value of holding), supply will inevitably increase. Although I like your thesis. There can be a bump up from here and the trend can shift - although i'm on the side that the armory has been dead.
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
Personal opinion, prices won't sit THIS LOW for too long Bot farms won't buy and redeem armory stars for at best -40% return. Real players may, but likely less and less as they see how little return they receive, even when they are lucky. I estimate >80% ROI by end of month
CSROI@csroireal

The NEW Armory Collections are finally tradable, with some abysmal returns... Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61% Arabesque - 53% Fruits & Veggies - 39% Auto Racing - 30% It seems that all the stars saved for this update produced way too many items for their demand...

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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@csgonewb Yea thats definitely the other side of the coin but tbh it was never healthy to hoard items in active supply with no known removal date. I just hope the demand eventually shifts to removed armory items, and that gives people some confidence.
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Boop
Boop@csgonewb·
@BrongoCS well, really the problem is if the prices are so low... it means that demand is the problem. Yes, there will be absorption and accumulation from people like you thinking it's cheap but I believe the problem is that people are kind of done with accumulating armory items.
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eugenio8a8
eugenio8a8@eugenio8a8·
@BrongoCS no!!! its so over panic everywhere 😂😂
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@theSinedinCS Pretty much exactly my thoughts, and those pent up stars from the wait won’t be replenished if the rewards aren’t worth redeeming
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the Sined in CS2
the Sined in CS2@theSinedinCS·
Totally agree. Because of the 78-day wait, many people hoarded way too many stars. I think it’s also worth noting that the long delay caused people to speculate that we might get a completely new system or unannounced items. These two expectations combined created this temporary chaos in both the market and the game. Moving forward, players simply won't have enough stars to sustain this for long, so we wait and see 🤔😉
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@BizmutCS Only reason old collections got so cooked was due to profitable collections, if they’re never profitable, they will never make a huge supply
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Bizmut🐸
Bizmut🐸@BizmutCS·
@BrongoCS When prices rise bots will return until we will have the same situatiin as with overpass
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Brongo
Brongo@BrongoCS·
@TheGreenFireCS Yea 100%, probably players too though. Such a long period of no good options return wise kept people like me hoarding stars
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TheGreenFire (CS)
TheGreenFire (CS)@TheGreenFireCS·
@BrongoCS 100% agreed, it's way too low rn and I think that's because every single armory star farmer had so long to accumulate stars which caused prices to be lower than they should ever be for day one
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Keşfet

@WJW1095797 @theSinedinCS @TDM_Jesus @TheCS2Historian @euphoriaCS2 @ShavvyCS2 @CorrexCS @badentryx