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Brian Sobiecki
12.3K posts
Brian Sobiecki
@Bsobiecki
Real Estate Investor
Baltimore, MD Katılım Nisan 2009
1.8K Takip Edilen822 Takipçiler
Peak suburban living is the unreasonable amount of joy from driving down a freshly paved street
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@Bsobiecki @chernobelskiy Yeah what they really mean is who’s next
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Information and news is more available than ever but no matter how well publicized the history of a fraud or the well known grifters that we still cannot find the bottom of the $$ well willing to sign up again.
It *almost* seems like it’s good for the resume
Upslope Capital@UpslopeCapital
...serenity now...
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@chernobelskiy @EllliotttB Reminds me of Adam Neumann saying Ben Horowitz called him after wework saying “what’s next!?”
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@EllliotttB "everyone makes mistakes but do you know how much money he made for some investors?!"
Obviously worlds apart since one is fraud but this also reminds me of pensions allocating to sponsors who consistently don't perform well 🤷🏼♂️
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@oknotsomuch Has she looked at Ed tech / curriculum development? I know those companies do some remote hiring
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@asymmetricinfo Everyday life as a DC landlord.
And I wish I wasn’t kidding when I say the owner’s best move at this point might be to offer the tenant a few thousand dollars to leave
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DC’s tenant laws are bonkers and this is not the first such story. It’s time for reform.
7News DC@7NewsDC
Veronica Hegens thought she’d made a sound financial decision in September 2023 by renting out her row house in Southwest D.C. Now the retired Army major is in danger of losing the property to foreclosure because of a tenant who hasn’t paid rent since October and who also has no immediate plans to leave. bit.ly/4bfbEC6
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the reason I stopped listening to silicon valley vc-slop is mostly the taste discourse. the endless pushing of “taste” by people who’ve never demonstrated any real "taste" in anything. this is true even if i leave out the fact that it’s heavily in their self-interest.
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Received an email titled Student Seeking Advice.
Quickly opened it thinking I could be helpful.
Turned out it was a pitch to make me custom PM software
Do people really think that is a good sales strategy?
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@AdvisorJohn Harbor area is surprisingly active for high vacancy. Between the science center/aquarium/events at the pavilion (ottobar birthday bash), ice skating, Xmas market… I’m pleasantly surprised most times I go down there.
MCB redevelopment + more ppl living there will do well imo
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@AdvisorJohn Imo this is due to a few things
- MD not being a super business friendly state/Baltimore not attracting out of town companies
- Baltimore not being a hotbed of startups that grows firms organically
- We now have 3 downtowns (downtown, harbor east, peninsula) w/same # tenants
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This is wild! So many stories like this in the US. I had my wedding reception here in 2007. Back the, the harbor was packed with shops. Today, a ghost town of empty prime buildings.
The ripple effects of bad economic and social policies is extremely financially destructive.
Nightingale Associates@FCNightingale
Renaissance Baltimore Harborplace Hotel Auction lasted 47 seconds. Taken by lender via $30M credit bid. No other bids. Sold for $80M in 2020. Sold for $157M in 2005. Defaulted on $71M loan while dealing with a host of problems, including broken boilers, malfunctioning elevators and linen shortage. Lender is DR VII REIT Holdings, a subsidiary of New York-based Torchlight Investors. 622 Rooms Built 1988 -Baltimore Banner #CommercialRealEstate
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@BarryRoland19 Agreed. Seeing people suggesting LPs use it to check model assumptions has me scratching my head
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For now, Claude, etc. are great at building models — but beware relying on these models for important assumptions.
I asked Claude to guess what kind of rent I’m getting at a specific address. I gave it pictures, size, etc.
It was 33% off (too conservative).
And I’m renting them for 30% less than section 8 might pay, which is what all the brokers underwrite as pro forma.
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lol this is so short sighted and stupid, it's obviously impossible to pay too much for a trophy location you just have to hold it longer. if it still hasn't made money in 20 years, then again, just hold longer
BarryRoland19@BarryRoland19
You often hear people (even pros) say something like, "just buy RE in the best location and let it ride." Was just looking at a commercial property that sold in 2019 for $11.8M on Sunset and Santa Monica. This is arguably the most prime retail corner in LA right now. ~$13/SF/MO + CAM. Since the building was purchased, insane amounts of development have occurred on both sides. An Erehwon opened a few hundred feet away. A sweetgreen opened. An Alfred Coffee. And what will the net sale proceeds be to the owner, after 7 years of ownership? About $11.5M.
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Got excited enough about a deal earlier that now I feel like I need a nap
Anyone else get this?
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@johnarnold Period of extensions, loan mods, marginal pay downs followed by a wave of mezz and cv’s when possible. Existing equity basically worthless but sponsors live another day
Same thing is happening in the real estate market. Nobody is crystallizing losses unless forced
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Private credit funds will be very reluctant to roll over software loans when they mature. The closed-end funds can't refi any loans right now given redemptions. Since many loans were taken to pay dividends to sponsors, how will they repay maturing loans?
Will sponsors put new $ into the companies? many are past investment period.
Bring in new equity? that will be tough and pricey.
Refi with a mezz lender? will be at much higher rate.
Walk away? Huge loss and hit to reported marks.
In every situation, the equity is worth less even if business performance hasn't changed.
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82 degrees today, 37 with a chance of snow on Tuesday
Fools spring
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@JasonGreenwal12 It is. Down the road tho. Got Indian from the place next door a few weeks ago
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The Roland Park Shopping Center, pictured in the upper left, was built in ~1895 and is allegedly the country’s first planned shopping center
𝒩𝒶𝓉𝒶𝓁𝒾𝒶@classicspilled
North Baltimore holds a special place in my heart.
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