Budde
2K posts
Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.
Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:
Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."
He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.
Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.
BUT IT DIDN'T
Those promises are now officially broken.
The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.
Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.
Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.
But that's not even the worst part.
Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.
What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.
How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.
Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:
Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?
WRONG
Dig into the actual filing:
The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."
They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.
GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.
Let me put that in perspective:
3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.
All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...
3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.
So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.
The math doesn't work.
They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.
The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:
Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).
They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.
Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.
Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.
And here's what really kills the bull case...
The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:
Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.
That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.
And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.
Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.
Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.
The stock is $387.
So what exactly are you paying for?
You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.
I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.
And I am telling you:
Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.
THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC
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@gerardtbaker @Kasparov63 Our whole family is in agreement, all of whom voted for Trump, we will never vote for Vance for anything !! Garbage !!
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Obscene thing to say. If you must, say, “I’m sorry but Ukraine is not our problem; we have bigger issues to deal with; Europe should step up”. But to say you’re proud of starving a country of help in the face of lethal aggression? Just don’t understand this man’s morality.
Republicans against Trump@RpsAgainstTrump
JD Vance: Stopping funding for Ukraine is one of the things I’m proudest we’ve done in this administration.
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'We knew Orbán would not win the election' – Vance.
'One of the reasons we decided to support him was not that we don't know how to read polls. We certainly understood that there was a very high probability that Viktor would lose these elections. We did it because he is one of the few European leaders we have seen who was willing to stand up to the bureaucracy in Brussels, which has been very, very unfavorable to the United States. We did not go because we expected Viktor to easily win the election. We went because it was right to support a man who has long supported us. So it was not about Russia and, essentially, not about Europe. It was about the United States and the fact that he was a good partner – personally for me and for the president, but also for the US. I am sorry that he lost'.
- SK
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@Microinteracti1 @Kasparov63 Vance is sole reason I will not vote for GOP in any election in foreseeable future.
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The White House wonders why Europe won’t rally behind America in Iran. Maybe start by asking why your Vice President is flying to Budapest to have a warm chat with Viktor Orban, the man running a Russian influence operation from inside NATO’s borders.
While Europe has been bleeding money and weapons to stop Russian aggression, Hungary has been blocking NATO decisions, sheltering Russian intelligence, and doing Moscow’s diplomatic dirty work at every turn. Orban isn’t America’s friend. He’s Putin’s man in Brussels.
And JD Vance calls him a “good friend.”
Europe is supposed to line up behind a war that had no plan for day two, no strategy for the Strait of Hormuz, and no consultation with allies beyond Israel. A war that has already sent oil past $100 a barrel and left one of America’s most powerful warships reportedly retreating toward the Indian Ocean.
You don’t get to lecture Europe about loyalty while embracing the man working to destroy the alliance from within, and then demand backup for a war you started without asking anyone.
Gandalv / @Microinteracti1
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@Helenalinda0 Why the name change to Simone? Just curious. Your biggest fan from afar ❤️
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After a lot of thought, I’ve decided to leave Premier and begin a new chapter at Flirt Spa.
Premier has always been kind, and Tiana is truly wonderful — I’m very grateful.
At this moment, I feel more aligned with the boundaries and approach at Flirt, especially when it comes to sessions. It simply feels like the right place for me right now.
My name is Simone…
I look forward to seeing you soon, my dear. 💫
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Every member in the U.S. Senate agrees we cannot allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.
I’m baffled why so many are unwilling to support the only action to achieve that.
Empty sloganeering vs. commitment to global security — which is it?
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An oldie but goodie. My 2022 pod, talking China with Commissioner Carr: buzzsprout.com/1851039/episod…
Niki Christoff@NikiChristoff
"TikTok itself is not available in China." Thank you @BrendanCarrFCC for joining the pod to chat national security, dataflows, and Gen Z's favorite viral video app. Listen on Apple podcasts 🎧 lnkd.in/eMvCMtJT Listen on Spotify 🎧 lnkd.in/e8JQ4qN6
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@SenWarren I am a Republican but want to commend you on your class and dogged pursuit of equitable financial solutions. Thank you for your service !! ❤️
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President Trump says he wants Wall Street and private equity out of housing.
Democrats have a bill to do exactly that – and boost affordable housing and homeownership. Will he support it?
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@cryptofergani With math skills like yours no wonder it went bankrupt. Any company that went bankrupt their CEO actually went down 100% so it is no surprise with these math skills that you possess that your company made it to $.42 a share.
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Michael Saylor: “I’m not proud of this, I’m the only public company CEO in the history of the world that actually lived to see his stock decline in value by -99.8%. My stock went from $333 a share, to $0.42. HODL? You haven’t lived through anything.”
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@SteveScalise I am a Republican. You so in the wrong on ICE. The guy was murdered. The house is already lost. The party is now at stake. @GOP
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Been to 9! My place of birth is one of these.. guess which one
Vince Langman@LangmanVince
I've been to 9 What about you?
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