Brock Rogers

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Polymarket traders give a 36% chance the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by May 31st. That means 64% of people betting real money think this drags well past May.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US doesn't need to clear every Iranian mine from the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright just confirmed it: a safe shipping corridor is enough to reopen oil flows. Full demining could take up to 6 months. A narrow corridor? Weeks. That's not a small distinction. Every day Hormuz stays closed, fuel prices climb and the global economy absorbs another hit. The Pentagon knows full clearance is the ideal. But the US is choosing the faster path: get one lane open, get oil moving, deal with the rest later. Pragmatism over perfection. That's the play. Source: Bloomberg

Iran is making it seem they’re ready to walk out from the Pakistan negotiations without a deal And they’re not lying, they control the Straits of Hormuz and are printing money! However, they also don’t want to get bombed again. Many of their leaders have been assassinated, and whether they admit it or not, they’re terrified of Trump’s unpredictability So yes, they’re comfortable walking out without a deal, but they cannot risk pushing their luck too far and ending up assassinated I don’t envy the position they’re in, terrifying to be up against both the U.S. and Mossad 💀

We have the first reported results of today's trilat bt US/Iran/Pakistan on seeking an offramp for the US/Israel v Iran war. No reported breakthroughs from either the US or Iranian news outlets, but after two rounds of discussions today, covering more than four hours, there is a third round schedule for tonight local. According to what's been publicly revealed, the issue of Israeli full ceasefire in Lebanon and control of Hormuz are still the key contentious issues, and neither has apparently been resolved/agreed to. Israel continues to attack targets in southern Lebanon, so they don't seem to be in a hurry (or willing) to see a full ceasefire come into effect, nor it appears, see the US reach a negotiated end to the war. Two U.S. destroyers reportedly transited the Strait today, allegedly "setting the conditions" for removing Iranian mines from the waters in the Strait. Unless that is agreed to by the IRGC, its hard to see how clearing mines will come to pass. It could be a tactical game of chicken with the larger diplomatic game of chicken playing out in Islamabad, whereby the U.S. is daring Iran to fire on our boats, or the strait may be cleared of mines. Very risky... Nothing at all about denuclearization, the reported 400+kg of reprocessed nuclear material, Iran's long range missiles, or its support for regional proxies - like Hezbollah in Lebanon. The hard part of negotiations has yet to be addressed, but hey, let's start with the tasks that have a shot and see if we can build momentum for something substantive. I still have low confidence in a negotiated settlement bc there are too many in Trump's inner circle who still lust after war and will only be placated with (a fantasy hope for) a military defeat of Iran - and, of course, an Israeli side who seems intent on killing any move towards a diplomatic offramp.