Trading & Investing School

Strong stocks don’t give many opportunities. Weak stocks give plenty. That’s the trap most traders fall into.” “Sector leads. Stock follows. Ignore this → you’ll always enter late.”

Barring 4-5 cos , Most of top 20-25 Nifty companies will go out of index in near future.. barring a few, there is hardly any investment n r&D on future ready technology.. Banks- easy CASA days r gone FMCG cos are being disrupted in in BPC, foods by smaller new generation players AI, Semicon, defense ,energy - seeing lot of first gen entrepreneurs investing for future..

Concalls I am reading of most Indian businesses are exuding immense bullishness for business growth over next 2-5 years. Keywords: 80-90% capacity utilisation Capex spends Global diversification Valued added products Margin expansion New adjacencies New products Acquisitions The list goes on… Either that or I am only reading the bullish ones. PS: Don’t talk to me about other keywords like valuations, what’s in the price , what if, but etc. Because the game is all about making judgement calls considering both sides of the equation.

.@aubankindia – Q1FY27 – Loan growth is strong; seasonal hiccups in asset quality Business growth: Deposits at Rs157727cr, up 23.5%YOY & 3.3% QOQ CASA at Rs45400cr, up 21.9% YOY & 4.7% QOQ (Rare instance of a bank witnessing growth in their CASA book) CASA ratio at 28.8 vs 29.2% YOY & vs 28.4% QOQ Advances at Rs138573cr, up 24.1% YOY & 3.2% QOQ AUM at Rs144250cr, up 22.6% YOY & 2.8% QOQ P&L momentum: Net interest income at Rs2695.5cr, up 31.8% YOY & 4.4% QOQ Fee income at Rs680cr, up 331% YOY & down 9.1% QOQ Other income at Rs689.2cr, down 15% YOY & 5.7% QOQ Operating profit at Rs1435.5cr, up 9.4% YOY & 6.2% QOQ Calculated ex-treasury, operating profits up 35.4% YOY & down 4% QOQ Provisions at Rs371.5cr, down 30.3% YOY & up 37.9% QOQ PAT at Rs795.95cr, up 37% YOY & down 4.3% QOQ Key ratios: CRAR at 18.93% vs 19.42% YOY & 18.68% QOQ NIM at 5.9% vs 5.4% YOY & 6% QOQ Cost to income ratio at 57.6% vs 54% YOY & 59.2% QOQ ROA at 1.68% vs 1.48% YOY & 1.8% QOQ ROE at 15.6% vs 13.3% YOY & 17% QOQ Provision coverage ratio at 85% vs 83% YOY & vs 85% QOQ Asset quality – QOQ Slippages at Rs798cr, up 21.1% QOQ Annualised slippage ratio at 2.3% vs 1.96% Gross NPA at Rs2948.2cr vs Rs2755.6cr, up 7% Net NPA at Rs1059.6cr vs Rs989.9cr, up 7% Gross NPA ratio at 2.1% vs 2.03% Net NPA ratio at 0.76% vs 0.74%

The two WRC weekly candles are pillars of Bank nifty. Keep tracking those and look for clues for price stabilizing.

Nifty Bank - Weekly update. Last week result is not like by Market. HDFC B, Axis Bank printed WRC red candle. Only ICICI Bank result was like by mkt. Sentiment wise crude touching 100 added one more factor to Red WRC. Price will pullback more. Track the previous major pivot.

@ResearchSOIC Precot and Sportking....

We worked on finding some niche players in the textile space, and two companies caught our eye Company A: Revenue fell 11% last year, while its margins expanded 290bps Company B: After years of struggling, the company's margins broke out of their historical range in Q4, and management is talking about growth acceleration in FY27 beyond what they've delivered over the last 2 years We will cover both businesses in depth with our subscribers this Sunday Disclaimer: Not a recommendation to buy/sell

In this order: Market Health > Stock Selection > Entry & Exit

15 listed railway firms mapped by their strongest speciality within the railway value chain: #Stockstowatch 🚆 Passenger coaches: Titagarh Rail Systems 🚆 Freight wagons: Jupiter Wagons 🚆 Rail freight wagons & foundry: Texmaco Rail 🚆 Railway EPC: RVNL 🚆 Railway construction: IRCON International 🚆 Railway consultancy & exports: RITES 🚆 Railway financing: IRFC 🚆 Ticketing & catering: IRCTC 🚆 Rail telecom & digital infrastructure: RailTel 🚆 Container rail logistics: CONCOR 🚆 Metro coaches & rail equipment: BEML 🚆 Railway signalling & Kavach: HBL Engineering 🚆 Track laying & maintenance machines: Escorts Kubota 🚆 Railway forgings (wheels, axles & components): Ramkrishna Forgings 🚆 Railway electrification equipment: BHEL This mapping is based on what I believe is each company's strongest railway-related capability. Many of these companies operate across multiple segments.

Refer Chart below. Other smaller banks within Nifty Bank index like Federal, IndusInd and AU Bank have excellent structure

ICICI B only stock to support momentum in Bank nifty. HDFC, Kotak B just doing Okie. Axis Bank is contracting over last 4-5 months.SBI will take more time to form the right supporting structure

We initiated Sansera for our subscribers around 16th December 2025. But the more important thing is how we filtered on this idea. > First key factor we observed was the product mix change, where the company's intent was to gradually move from its ICE component business to Aero/Defence/Semicon (ADS) business. > This product mix shift was visible from the fact that margins had been improving over the last 2 quarters, and growth was starting to pick up. That's how it came under our filters. > Going a little deeper, we understood that the kind of things it was doing in the ADS business were quite moated. It had a single-source monopoly on Airbus A350/A320 thrust-reversal gimbals with zero defects over 12 years; hogging (machining from solid billet vs. forging) is a much harder-to-replicate capability for aerospace tolerances. > Also, in its semiconductor business, it was working with Lam Research, where this year their business is expected to go from $10M to $30M . > Also, as per our channel checks, they had orders/interest from Rolls-Royce for aero-engine feelers, the MMRFIC JV (navy fuses, radars), and a Tesla ESS order. > All these things were a confirmation of our thesis that management has the capabilities, and that the product mix is changing for good. > They have also given strong guidance of ₹8,000 Cr in revenue, with ADS at 20–25% of overall business and blended EBITDA margins moving above the 20% mark. On top of this, we also visited their facility, where we got to understand the manufacturing complexity involved in the components they make for their ADS business, and their capabilities in precision engineering. The framework was simple: through scanning, found a business where earnings were breaking out and margins were improving > went through their earnings calls and found the story of the product mix change > mapped out the value chain and tried to understand Sansera's moat in the new business they were focusing on > visited their facility to verify our thesis on the company. Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. We continue to hold it in our recommendation portfolio and may change our view at any point in time.

@KirtanShahCFP What moved 3x,5x,10x,20x 30-35 correction is normal. Basic common sense. The AI is not over it has taken a pause and will take time to digest gains and can go into time consolidation. Profit booking and rotating to other names and assets will give hint

Except for KOSPI which is down 25% at the index level, indices in general are not showing the 'latest' AI pain, ServiceNow -56% Super Micro Computer -51% Oracle -50% ARM Holding -40% Scandisk -40% Marvell Tech -39% SK Hynix -37% Palantir -35% SpaceX -35% Intel -31% Micron -30% Samsung -28% Microsoft -26% LAM Research -26% Applied Materials -22% Broadcom -22% Vertiv -22% Dell -16% Meta -15% TSMC -14% Advance Micro Devices -14% Nvidia -12% Alphabet -11% ASML -10%

Nifty Bank weekly update : the supply is getting absorbed. Today aggressive buyers have taken price up and printed a good candle. 5 banks results are due. Next week can be a cracker for Bank nifty. Keep tracking and have patience

23rd March 2026 Mark on the indices :)

@prabhakarkudva But when did "Avoiding or minimising drawdown" and "making profit every year" become trap. Aren't those 2 the dharma of every investor

@Business_Decode You are falling in the exact trap the tweet talks about :)

How returns work in the market: 1 horrible year 2 ok-ok years 1 stupendous year Internalizing this alone cuts our mistakes in half. What corrupts our judgement: ❌ The need to avoid drawdowns. ❌ The need to make money every year.

Considering how these new age companies are doing - feel Meesho may be the next in pack. Tight pivot on the right side waiting for the direction

That's how the reversal looks initially.

Nifty Bank Analysis : 1. On daily tf, price has countered Wednesday Red WRC (+ ve) 2. On weekly the two WRC are acting as pillars in BN. Last 4-5 weeks price consolidating and absorbing all supply (+ ve ). 3. ICICI B supporting Bank Nifty price. 4. HDFC - Momentum missing

On a broader level, the Microfinance industry has gone through a challenging phase over the last several quarters driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures and sector-specific issues, which were discussed in great detail in the previous calls. However, with the beginning of the second half of FY26, we saw a perceptible shift, the collection efficiency trends improved meaningfully, borrower behavior showed signs of stabilization and demand across the Microfinance products, particularly in the rural geographies begin to revise. ~ Arman Financial Mngmt. Disc: Not a Buy/Sell Recommendations.