“How do I know if a level is going to hold?”
You can’t know. You bet and find out.
“What happens if it doesn’t hold/I’m wrong?”
You lose money.
Get comfortable being uncomfortable.
Your job is to take intelligent risks, not to avoid them completely.
Took on a small moonbag of $NFD here. More a bet on Path than on NFTs which I think are on the verge of nuclear winter. At least this is liquid if/when I capitulate.