@mike10101013 @akarlin Well you need to think about starting points. It's not like it's been "stuck" at Mexico's level. It just reached it, and it looks like it will rip ahead.
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ByzantineInvestor
69 posts
ByzantineInvestor
@ByzantineInvest
Discussions on investing and society.
Constantinople (not Istanbul) Katılım Ağustos 2023
45 Takip Edilen7 Takipçiler
@akarlin China won't ever get wealthy because it can't ever be at the frontier of growth when the party picks winners and losers based off political expediency.
China after 50 years of market reforms and the fastest growth in human history is still in the same level as Mexico
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You know, at one point in my Sinotriumphalist 2010s I speculated China might eventually overtake Japanese GDP *per capita*. I got more bearish on China early 2020s due to its reactionary insularity. But you know, perhaps it wasn't so ridiculous after all. akarlin.com/sinotriumph-10…
Sony | Xperia@sonyxperia
The new AI Camera Assistant* with Xperia Intelligence brings stories to life. Using subject, scene and weather, it suggests expressive options with adjustments of colour, exposure, bokeh, and lens for breathtaking photos*. sony.co.jp/en/xperia-1m8/… #SonyXperia #Xperia1VIII
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@AccurizedNom @DavidInglesTV Idk enough and makes sense in theory. But they were at 10% (which is already hard) and they are now at 40%. So clearly they can improve - can they not just keep up the trend?
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@DavidInglesTV Very doubtful.
Semiconductor production meeds 2 things that🇨🇳does poorly:
Rigorous focus on process quality
Constant monitoring w/ continuous improvement
I have no doubt🇨🇳can produce a lot of wafers. I very much doubt they can produce high yields on cutting edge processes.
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One of the most consequential charts IMO
China will go from being almost completely reliant on chips from external sources to almost completely self-sufficient in just ten years - per MS
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What people forget is that the mainstream Hipster, top knot era was born out of the recession. It was cope about everyone being poor after 08. "I like old stuff cuz I can't afford new stuff".
99% of Millenials spent every year from 96 through 08 like this:
Manlet King ☩@TheManlet_King
The "millennial" impact of hipster, whisky, stomp clap, basically just coffee shop culture, was for like 5 years max. It didn't exist in 2010, and was completely gone by 2016. A rapid and unnatural push that everyone hated and was dumped the second Trump announced his campaign.
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@MoneyMacGyver @XH_Lee23 Ehh $23bn p.a. is not that much and given its spread across like 100 companies. Sure subsidies help, but from a lot of market commentary - it is all about insane competition. Like each company and each supplier is struggling on razor thin/non-existant margins
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@XH_Lee23 CCP has funneled $230B+ in subsidies into Chinese EVs (per CSIS) over the last 15 years. These "bargain" prices aren't market-driven - they're state-backed. Not apples-to-apples with unsubsidized Western competitors. Tariffs exist for a reason.
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US car reviewer Forrest Jones introduces Chinese rivalry of BMW X5.
Top-liked Comments:
"We're being scammed so bad in the states man😭"
"BMW would charge $250k"
"For 58k that is INSANE. It would collapse US automakers overnight"
That's why US bans China's EVs.
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@MadtownYankee @modernhistory And I will have my cronut, in this life or the next
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@modernhistory If this can happen to "Maximus Decimus Meridius", Commander of the armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true Emperor Marcus Aurelius
Then us mere mortals have no chance
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🤣 OMG… FACTS!!
🤷🏻♀️ I cannot tell you how many songs I listen to now and I think, what the hell?
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@FuturistASI @ylecun @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn So you're saying an employee now is worth 10x before LLMs. But the follow-on is to fire the other nine? Wouldn't it make sense to hire more and more - given each one is worth 10x more what they were?
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Dario is not wrong. One employee with a current working basic knowledge of how to use an LLM can do the cognitive tasks of 10 people in the pre-LLM world. Add agentic AI to the mix, and one employee with a good understanding of AI can automate the work of multitudes. Listen to economists?
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Dario is wrong.
He knows absolutely nothing about the effects of technological revolutions on the labor market.
Don't listen to him, Sam, Yoshua, Geoff, or me on this topic.
Listen to economists who have spent their career studying this, like @Ph_Aghion , @erikbryn , @DAcemogluMIT , @amcafee , @davidautor
TFTC@TFTC21
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: “50% of all tech jobs, entry-level lawyers, consultants, and finance professionals will be completely wiped out within 1–5 years.”
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@InternetH0F Is it acceptable to say Russian hacker? Would it be ok if they said "this Indian hacker" or "this Nigerian hacker".
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We're asking kids to handle things most adults can't
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@ctoLarsson Also as a bitcoin maxi, I do believe in BTC's greater future role and price. But it's not even the dumping for me, it's the concentration pick an - infamous company or gov't and imagine them having a quarter of BTC's supply. It just feels gross to imagine that much control.
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BIP-361 to freeze quantum vulnerable wallets:
Yes.
The alternative is price dipping to near 0.
That would be bad for Bitcoin’s reputation.
If not freezing:
- Say you know that half a million BTC will be market dumped tomorrow.
- What will you do today? You will sell today, to re-buy tomorrow at a fraction of the price.
- So will everyone else.
- Will anyone buy today? No.
- So there is little or no floor.
- Price will wick down to “impossible” levels.
- Then repeat it again a few days later, for a total of 2 million btc.
- Oh price will hit near zero.
The argument to not freeze, is to completely f over Wall Street, Saylor, treasuries, and everyone else and start again from basically zero.
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@DrKrisEdward @Giovann35084111 Love the autistic-snob tone. Do you understand the power law? Giovanni himself says that to not use it past 2040. Can you figure out if that's before or after the last bitcoin is mined? Not sure why you're being a retard and shutting down questions.
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@ByzantineInvest @Giovann35084111 What would be the mechanism of breakage?
Do you understand why the power law pattern exists in the first place?
Do you know when the last Bitcoin will be mined?
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This is how the power law looks like if you keep all the data points below the power law (what is above is bubble noise).
How somebody can look at this and not being completely amazed?
This should be the logo in any Bitcoin conference and not ignored or brushed off.
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@ByzantineInvest @nvk When are the most talented people in the world in any field working for the government?
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@nvk Amazing. My 2 sats on satoshi era coins, have a multi-year transfer window and then add back into the security budget (well not my idea). Burning seems a bit unfair, do nothing seems bad too. This seems like the fairest solution.
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@TheCinesthetic There were some great high school/uni shows around that time. Freaks & geeks, undeclared, undergrads, clone high.
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Freaks and Geeks (1999–2000) only ran for one season, so it’s an easy watch in a day, and that one season still captures that whole high school world so perfectly.
cinesthetic.@TheCinesthetic
What television series is so good, it's worth binge watching from beginning to end?
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@DefiantLs what is this from, and where can i listen to more of this alien
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🚨 Julius Caesar's Dating History:
100-84 BC — Single 💔
84–69 BC — Cornelia 🇮🇹
67–62 BC — Pompeia 🇮🇹
59–44 BC — Calpurnia 🇮🇹
60s–40s BC — Servilia of the Junii 🇮🇹
48/47–44 BC — Cleopatra 🇪🇬
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@talkrealopinion Same story since independence. Ukraine started with 52m people in 1991 - by 2025 its maybe 25-30m. So in another 30yrs it'll probably be 12-15m. Also economically terrible, per capita GDP never even close to pre-independence.
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Overall, this war is a nightmare for Ukrainian nationalists.
Language activists wanted to force everyone in Ukraine to speak Ukrainian, yet now their own children are in Poland or Germany, speaking Polish or German.
National purity activists wanted everyone in Ukraine to identify themselves as ethnic Ukrainians; now, Ukrainian women are abroad, having babies with men of every nationality in the book, while Ukrainian men are trapped, unable to leave the country due to martial law.
Global Thinker@talkrealopinion
The population of Ukraine has shrunk by approximately 10 million people in the past four years. Ukraine now has one of the world's lowest birth rates. This is the real long-term success for Russia. That is what will matter in the long-run, not which side controls a random village today.
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@akarlin Some interesting comparisons there - Latvia and Georgia being close. North Korea and Kazakhstan. Also, the world is effectively - c. 55% US-aligned bloc, c. 40% China, 5% other.
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Preliminary data out for Jan-Dec 2025 of the Nature Index, a proxy for high quality science production.
China has nearly 2x the score of the US (up from 50% in 2018 and 25% in 2012).
China also produces 10x (sic) the per capita output of Russia.
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@kunley_drukpa What's the closest place to Cosmo Canyon - great memories.
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As well as ‘Final Fantasy Countries’ there are also ‘Final Fantasy Cities’ - ie cities with aesthetic features that would make them believable ‘Final Fantasy’ locations
ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩@kunley_drukpa
If you want whimsical IRL fantasy in sense post means this does ‘sort of’ exist but you have to visit a ‘Final Fantasy Country’ ie a country that has a ‘fantasy world-like’ exotic ‘other-y’ feel, unique compelling aesthetics etc. This is closest to ‘fantasy world’ you can get IRL
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