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Kier
4.1K posts

Kier
@CBBWagers
College Basketball Bets, Futures, Analysis, and Discussion (with occasional soccer, golf, NCAAF, CWS, NFL)
Katılım Ekim 2020
394 Takip Edilen575 Takipçiler

@NoisyHuevos I agree but not sure the play style matches the fan base especially at a blue blood line UNC
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Duke / St. John's (D.C.)
The Brand Name Game. New School vs Old School. Pitino vs Scheyer. Complicated NBA triple switching vs all-out bullyball pressure & athleticism. Analytical shot diet vs 'roll-the-ball-out' shot diet. Two Top 10 defenses. Two of the 4-5 best bigs in the country. Two of the best coaches. What's not to love?
Duke has looked INCREDIBLY mortal in 75 of the 80 minutes they have played in the tourney. After Siena let them off the hook with a missed dunk (not a typo), the Blue Devils spent 32-35 minutes sputtering on offense against TCU until a missed goaltending call forced a Jamie Dixon technical & the Frogs completely unraveled from then on. Ngongba did return in limited minutes (through foul trouble), and while the pressure Duke sees won't be quite at the 'selling out', two-to-the-ball level that TCU plays with, the relief he provides out of the high post in that regard is invaluable for this matchup for a Blue Devils offense that had been very PnR-centric over the past few games while down Ngongba/Foster.
First thing you have to look at with Duke's side is the Boozer matchup difficulty. Jonnies are Top 40 in 2PD% while being Top 20 in Defensive Near Proximity efficiency. Zuby & Mitchell are tough to score against at their respective positions, and the frontcourt is the strength of that defense, but keep in mind, STJ isn't the biggest frontcourt. And especially when Prey isn't in. Zuby is 6'9. Mitchell is 6'8, so it may be a battle of who is the bigger bully down low, which tends to mean success for Cam if he doesn't have a ton of length to deal with. The only team to slow him whatsoever in ACC play was UVA in the tourney, and they have a claim at the best rim protection in the nation due to their dual 7-footers. That really isn't the Jonnies as their heavy switching defense relies on greater mobility from their bigs than most other defensive schemes
I wasn't surprised to see the Jonnies scoring below ShotQuality expectation against Kansas given they were 7-18 on layups in the game and non-Hopkins guys were 5-24 from the 3P line. I don't even have to look to know that 6-9 from Hop is almost certainly his best efficiency from the arc on that level of volume in his career. They could (and probably should) have beaten Kansas by 15+. On the other hand, they also nearly blew a 14-point lead with 8 minutes left and if Bryce goes 5-9 from 3 instead of 6-9 by hitting that last one to go up 4 with 90 seconds left, the Jonnies could be sitting at home right now.
STJ matches up extremely well defensively. They already switch a ton, so if Duke reverts back to their offense that's heavily predicated on actions away from the ball, Jonnies should fare much better than other lumbering frontcourts. In addition, they're already an exceptional PnR defense that turns impossibly elite if Pitino wants to toss Mitchell onto the ball like he did against Peterson after the two early 3's last game
Duke under Scheyer has limited transition at an ELITE level every year, which is the first component in slowing down a Jonnies offense whose biggest questions reside in the half court. Look at some of the tourney teams Duke has faced. UVA? Cavs 2nd lowest possession total of the year. Clemson? 2nd lowest poss. count of ACC play. UNC? 2nd lowest poss count of ACC play. Michigan? You know, that Lion King Stampede of a transition game? Lowest possession count of the year for the Wolverines. You just cannot run on Duke, so this game will be mostly in the half court
With UCONN's offense being so ass relative to expectations this year, Duke has vaulted into the undoubted best half court execution team in the country. And I'm not sure it's particularly close. Big advantage to the Blue Devils so long as they control the tempo which is also heavily correlated to holding onto the ball offensively, another huge factor in this game as Duke just punted it away on nearly 1/4 of their possessions to a similar level of pressure in TCU.
Both defenses should find success. Jonnies are going to heat the ball up with a different level of physicality than Duke has seen in a while. Duke will force the Jonnies into a ton of contested shots in the half court, and chances are they won't get a Hopkins 6-9 3P game this go-around to bail them out.
>I bet the under given you would need some outstanding perimeter shotmaking with the level of difficulty scoring inside for both teams & the slow crawl Duke will muck this game into. Duke is also the 2nd lowest Defensive FTRate, which limits one of the best sources of offense for STJ. May be an ass clencher if the Jonnies come out hitting perimeter jumpers
>Jonnies are clearly 'live', but if they have the same issues in this game that they experienced against KU, their next game will be in November. They probably need 1 (maybe 2) of their 4 guards to have a hot shooting game. Possible? Absolutely. Likely? Maybe not quite 'likely', but that is a doable win condition for them with the way Duke will surrender 3Pointers to pack in the paint. Lean STJ with the points but Duke has taken money seemingly all year so you probably can wait on a better number
I don't have a ton prop wise that I love this game, but...
>PLEASE hang Zuby 3P props. Feels exactly like the Agee vs. SMC spot. Duke will dork Zuby beyond the FT line to give their guards more space to fight through DHOs, at least until he proves he can hit that shot. Should easily get 2 attempts with upside to 3-4 and it's likely a butt naked opportunity with the way that Duke is FULLY willing to let opposing bigs shoot from the perimeter. I actually think if you want a sicko longshot, if 365 hangs his 3P alts at 2+ at a good number, I could be enticed. I am pretty confident he takes one early. If he hits it, he's probably taking another one or two at least, and Duke will not extend their bigs away from the basket probably until he hits a couple to demand that type of shot gravity
>HORRID matchup for Dillon Mitchell offensively as a guy who is incapable of scoring more than 5 feet away from the basket & likely doesn't get bailed out at the FT line with the way Duke defense without fouling
>The 3P threats who you typically hunt against Duke in this case would be Sellers, Sanon, and Jackson. We've seen Sellers' minutes scale back during postseason play & Jackson/Sanon are turnstiles defensively in a game that Pitino will SURELY have a short leash. One of them probably hits a couple, one probably plays their median minute projection, and one probably plays 12 minutes going 0-2 from 3. Best of luck guessing which is which
>If we feel Ngongba plays his usual minute allotment (if he avoids fouls), then Duke goes back to being an elite rebounding unit, instead of 4 idiots staring at Cam while he fights 3 defenders every rebound (see, Siena game). I have targeted frontcourt rebounding overs for STJ down the stretch when they could overwhelm teams athletically and physically. I would be shocked if STJ bullies Duke in the same manner they have to other (even elite) teams down the stretch. Unders on Zuby, DM, and Hop rebounds don't feel great but are probably the correct looks. Strong chance 1 of the 3 also fouls & Rick is...*gulp*...363rd in 2-Foul Participation
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@DelawareMBB @UDBlueHens This is embarrassing propaganda. We were #302 in defense this year and #324 last year. Who was instructed to tweet out this graphic? Feel for them
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@CBBWagers O, truly atrocious. I was just cracking up thinking that take was stone ded outside of this one ridiculous possession and a game or two
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@LIVGolfBuff @livgolf_league Agreed. Wonder how this will impact Masters prep. Singapore only tough course they’ve seen all year
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@livgolf_league This course is such a weak test of golf. Wish it would go somewhere else is SA
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@PoipuBrad @GOLF_com You could be a better caddie than one of the best loops on tour? Sure sure sure
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@Adambjorn Mr. Bjorn can we get some CBB player props up for the tournament please !?
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@CBBWagers Scheduled for March 24th, I will be adding win probabilities as well for postseason play!
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Mid-Major Conferences if P4’s are going to cherry-pick your best players you might want to send your best teams to the dance not the 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc #MarchMadness x.com/chrisfallica/s…
Chris Fallica@chrisfallica
There is a historically massive gap this year between the 2-3-4-5 and their 15-14-13-12 opponents...
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@matthewwinick I’d rather bet Houston at the 13s out there, with elite guard upside than Florida sub 10 but that’s just me
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@CBBWagers I mean, obviously Florida was horrific from deep early in the year. But they’ve been more than good enough for virtually half the season now to suggest they’ve turned a corner.
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Since January 25th from 3-point range:
Michigan: 38%
Duke: 36%
Arizona: 35.4%
Florida: 35.3%
Kier@CBBWagers
@matthewwinick Shoot the ball well enough
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I get that Florida lost pretty badly today, but I do not see what the Gators have done to not deserve being in this tier.
Kyle Tucker@KyleTuckerCBB
Duke, Michigan, Arizona are the clear Tier 1 heading into the NCAA Tournament. I have at least one significant question about everyone else. Those three feel like rock-solid Final Four picks.
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SteveBrubaker@stevebrubaker
Yesterday I found very high fees from @fanduelpredicts on my golf bets. While I was incorrect on how the fees were being calculated this chart created by Gemini AI shows how bad you're getting beat at FDP versus @Kalshi on long shots. Aberg at 7 cents cost me $1.42 on a $5 bet.









