@apressly16 1) Indiana isn't a G5
2) Indiana succeeded in large part due to Mark Cuban dumping tens of millions of dollars in NIL. G5s "belong" to the extent they have backing like that - none do.
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College Football Nerds
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College Football Nerds
@CFBNerds
We share unique insights about college football. Be the smartest fan at the tailgate.
Southeast, USA Katılım Mayıs 2009
571 Takip Edilen54.6K Takipçiler
Great thread. NIL has statistically increased the gap between the haves and have-nots more than any point in history.
Indiana and Miami making the CFB Playoff title blinded a lot of people on how much NIL is based on 1) huge financial backing 2) pulling players from mid-majors.
Chris Fallica@chrisfallica
There is a historically massive gap this year between the 2-3-4-5 and their 15-14-13-12 opponents...
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@CFBNerds hoping you guys are doing well during the off-season! Looking forward to your future content! God bless you both.
Blue Ash, OH 🇺🇸 English
Two more examples:
- The bigger football team is probably more likely to win. But making your team bigger makes you slower and you lose. Size has to be natural.
- More 4 down tries is statistically likely to win. But that's maybe because better teams try on 4th a lot more.
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Similar arguments can be made for things like ball control / time of possession.
Dominating time of possession comes from running it much better than your opponent. I.e., you're better.
But if you try to force running when it doesn't work for TOP, you're more likely to LOSE.
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An interesting analysis finding that the "middle 8" is statistically below-average for predicting the outcome of a win.
It turns out it's only the 7th most impactful 8 minutes. The winner of the last 8 minutes is BY FAR more likely to win.
My issue is cause and effect here.
Matrix Analytical@CFBAnalytical
The "Middle 8" is one of 11 eight minute blocks in a football game. So what happens when we look at 6,674 FBS games over the last decade and see how impactful the middle 8 is vs the other 10 blocks? Might want to read the summary & request the data: matrixanalytical.com/post/the-middl…
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It's worth noting that his junior season was also his only season as a high school starter, which is why the rankings were still so in-progress when he reclassified.
There were analysts who thought he could easily be a 5* prospect if he improved in his senior (2nd) season.
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@cjogara Yep, he reclassified a year early late in his junior year.
FWIW, a well-known recruiting analyst told me that they were in the process of reevaluating him as a likely top-50 recruit in senior rankings. But when he reclassified the new class was "done" so his ranking was locked.
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Your "how is this possible CFB stat of the day:"
Alabama QB Austin Mack will be entering Year 4 of college in 2026, and he'll still be 19 years old at the conclusion of spring camp.
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When in reality it's more just "change."
The advantage lies with who has the most money to buy (or retain) high-level transfers or recruits.
This change benefits the Big Ten. But it's a shift in who wins, not parity with anyone winning. Which is why the Big Ten likes it.
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@CFBlnsider @MrTPSM @CFBNerds I'm not sure if anyone did, but the NIL-era winners (mostly B1G) commonly attribute their newfound success to "parity" or an "even playing field."
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@apressly16 This is true, but is more an incentive issue than anything. In theory, it was always true that you could invest huge resources in your program and coaching to build up (Ok State and Clemson did it).
But the instant gratification of buying a roster increases volatility.
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@CFBlnsider @MrTPSM As we have said many times - people have advocated for a lot of things (expanded playoffs, NIL) based on the sport they wished we have, not the sport we DO have.
For example, a 12-team playoff isn't CBB MM - rather, the favorites (incl Indiana) win at a HIGHER clip.
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With one of us an attorney, we were vocal early advocates for NIL regulation (since before it was legalized).
In the early years, we were -constantly- told NIL would balance the sport. The idea was that 5* players would leave Bama for Troy.
We correctly guessed, 7 years ago, the exchange would be a bust backup to Troy but the star QB or NFL pass rusher to Bama.
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If you drive at all on the highways, you need to watch this.....
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A lot of channels can break down film but can't pick games or discuss who the best team actually is for the life of them.
College Football Nerds@CFBNerds
This is the bane of our existence. Subs constantly ask us for game film analysis. But you have no idea how many people we've talked with to get usable all-22 footage to analyze and/or use to no avail.
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@OBE1896 Despite being a paid shill for the SEC, they are yet to give us their all-22 nor a share of bowl proceeds.
Ridiculous, really.
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This is the bane of our existence.
Subs constantly ask us for game film analysis. But you have no idea how many people we've talked with to get usable all-22 footage to analyze and/or use to no avail.
Kevin Clark@bykevinclark
The lack of college all-22 film in 2026 is stupid and maddening. The NFL has let people access it for *14 years* and I think they are doing fine.
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@MBLstaxxxx @bykevinclark At the moment I don't have a clear ask. But when we are trying to do analysis of big-time QBs (Sayin or Simpson last year) it's almost impossible without a wide angle shot of the routes.
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@CFBNerds @bykevinclark Any team/game in particular you’re looking for? No promises but i might be able to get you something to work with
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The lack of college all-22 film in 2026 is stupid and maddening. The NFL has let people access it for *14 years* and I think they are doing fine.
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