Chamath Palihapitiya

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Chamath Palihapitiya

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

God is in the details.

In the Arena Katılım Nisan 2007
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Here is a very detailed walkthru of Software Factory. This is best suited for PMs and Engineers who want to start tinkering with a potential new control plane for how software is made... ...we've made a lot of inroads into establishing this pattern into large Enterprises. Please give it a try if you want to see what its all about.
8090@8090_Factory

Our Head of Product John Calzaretta walks through the full Software Factory platform live: Refinery, Foundry, Planner, Validator, Knowledge Graph, MCP integration with Cursor, Claude Code, and others. Live Q&A included. Full demo: youtu.be/heOkn3FCGaE 8090.ai

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
On page twenty-six of “The Billionaire Tax” proposal in California, it explains how the state legislature can convert from a Billionaire Tax to an Everyone Tax without voter approval. They can also adjust the tax to be a yearly tax, not just one time…again, without your approval. Intelligence test for you: if this was meant to just target Billionaires, why did they write this in?
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath

The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax. The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure. Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently has assets or ever will. The creators named it the Billionaire Tax so you would get into a froth andwouldn't look closely at what it actually does to you. On page twenty-six, it explains how the government can convert to an Everyone Tax without voter approval. They can also adjust the tax to be a yearly tax, not just one time…again, without your approval. Here's how the tax would work: As a voter, you're being asked to approve a tax that would require you to: 1. list all your assets and the value of each, then submit them to the California Franchise Tax Board. 2. authorize the tax board to appraise your assets and confirm the value of each. 3. pay a penalty of up to forty percent of your tax bill if the board determines your reported value was too low in their opinion. 4. allow the tax board to subpoena your financial records from every one of your financial institutions for auditing. This Everyone Tax runs 34 pages of shifty language describing how the government plans to take your assets. Read the fine print and decide for yourself. If this were truly a billionaire tax, it would be 3 pages. It’s 34 pages so that it can create the mechanisms to steal from all of you.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax. The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure. Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently has assets or ever will. The creators named it the Billionaire Tax so you would get into a froth andwouldn't look closely at what it actually does to you. On page twenty-six, it explains how the government can convert to an Everyone Tax without voter approval. They can also adjust the tax to be a yearly tax, not just one time…again, without your approval. Here's how the tax would work: As a voter, you're being asked to approve a tax that would require you to: 1. list all your assets and the value of each, then submit them to the California Franchise Tax Board. 2. authorize the tax board to appraise your assets and confirm the value of each. 3. pay a penalty of up to forty percent of your tax bill if the board determines your reported value was too low in their opinion. 4. allow the tax board to subpoena your financial records from every one of your financial institutions for auditing. This Everyone Tax runs 34 pages of shifty language describing how the government plans to take your assets. Read the fine print and decide for yourself. If this were truly a billionaire tax, it would be 3 pages. It’s 34 pages so that it can create the mechanisms to steal from all of you.
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Pod!!!!
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod

POD UP! Core four is back 🚨 Big show: -- SpaceX-Cursor deal, using compute as leverage -- SaaS debt bomb coming to PE?, venture debt risk -- Software bloodbath, buy low potential? -- New Apple CEO: future of the company -- SPLC indictment, major allegations, out of control NGOs -- Science Corner returns! Colon cancer cause discovered? (0:00) Bestie intros! (4:55) SpaceX-Cursor deal, compute as leverage (18:33) SaaS bloodbath, debt bomb incoming, buy the dip? (46:20) New Apple CEO: John Ternus succeeds Tim Cook, what's next for Apple? (1:00:32) SPLC indictment, out of control NGOs (1:19:03) Science Corner: Potential cause discovered for colon cancer spike in young people

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GroundFloorHQ
GroundFloorHQ@GroundFloor_hq·
@chamath Which Deep Dive changed your own thinking the most?
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Over the last few years, my team and I have written many Deep Dives - fundamental research that I use to learn, guide my thinking and refine my decision making. We started publishing these Deep Dives once per month. We now have a team and process that allows us to publish once per week. The topics are bangers - you can see a table below in the picture. We call this service Learn with Me. It costs $1,000/yr. We charge $1000/yr as a quality signal. I wanted to find a price that a) signaled when people made an important decision to subscribe to Learn with Me but also b) by staying or churning, signal to me how good the Deep Dives were. We have many thousands of people in the Learn with Me community and it grows a lot each month. The goal of Learn with Me will never change: explain important topics from the ground up, show why they matter now, and share the insights we use to understand the world and make better decisions (operational, organization, investment). Over time, I will invest the capital that this creates into building a full knowledge base (starting with the Deep Dives but growing from there), giving access to some of my agents (my portfolio composer, my negotiation agent, my org design agent, my strategy consulting agent) and many other exciting ideas. It's all new but we will learn together. In other words, more is coming for folks that are a part of the community. If you are curious about any of this you can sign up for it here: chamath.substack.com
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GREG MARTIN
GREG MARTIN@GregMartinLive·
@chamath I’m a LWM customer. McKinsey level insights for $99 p/mo. It’s been incredible.
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one9
one9@one9·
@chamath @grok does Chamath have an investments in Solar and/or Battery storage companies?
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
President Trump asked the Hyperscalers to sign a Rate Payer Pledge a few months ago. It was a smart and good thing by all parties. That said, electricity prices will keep going up. Why? A Utility has a unique business model that incentivizes them to invest more, each year, to maintain existing capacity as well as build more capacity. Because their profit is capped as a percentage of what they invest each year. For illustrative purposes assume they have a 10% earnings cap on yearly CapEx. Their incentive is to now spend as much CapEx as possible each year. This way, they can apply their 10% to as large of a number as possible. This isn't dissimilar to what happened to healthcare costs post Obamacare when Obama capped the health insurance companies to a 15% margin. They rapidly walked underlying prices up...with no real tie back to quality. Bottom line, as it currently stands, if a utility can justify spending $10B vs $1B, they make more, so they will. We will then be asked to pay more. This is the vicious cycle we are in. One way to get out of it is to move to solar and storage for your home. You break free of this negative loop and become your own mini power utility. You make and use what you need, send the excess back to the grid and oftentimes can be paid to do so. The adoption of solar and storage directly tie to how broken electricity prices are. With no end in sight, the long term future will be a massively distributed energy ecosystem of homes that make their own power, data centers that make their own power, commercial and industrial that make their own power and utilities with far fewer customers than they have today.
Jesse Peltan@JessePeltan

Monopolies will tell you we can’t have competition because we’d duplicate transmission and waste money… …and then they’ll spend 25x what it should cost.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Right now, because electricity prices keep going up, consumers have pinned this blame on AI Datacenters. This is unfair but there is no organized or concerted effort being put in to turn this tide. As the perception of AI and Datacenters grow increasingly negative, homeowners are protesting data center approvals at an alarming rate. It then flows through to cancelled projects. Currently, for every 100 projects that are protested, 40% get cancelled. As of March 2026, this will mean more than 40 projects this year alone which will be almost 9 GW. My prediction is that these cancellations will grow which will mean that the derisked capacity of AI will be meaningfully lower than what is needed. Lots of implications here but the most affected will be the Frontier Labs who need compute and as usage increases, will not be able to find capacity. Separately, the hyperscalers and neoscalers will be affected negatively. Finally, the chip/memory/asic/cpu ecosystem will then be hit as upstream customers cancel orders not because demand doesn't exist but the physical space to house and turn on their racks become fewer and farther between.
Shanu Mathew@ShanuMathew93

"Sightline tracks 710 data center projects in the pipeline. Through 2030, developers have announced 102.3GW of capacity, but only 40.8GW qualifies as derisked" @climatetech_vc

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
This is increasingly becoming a very useful feature for Enterprises as they a) decide to swap models because of cost b) decide to swap models because of one's ToS c) decide to swap models because of security d) decide to swap models because of capability etc etc etc Being tied to one Foundational Model is quickly becoming a bottleneck that can and should be avoided if you value your independence and flexibility. Software Factory resolves this for complex projects within Enterprises. A very useful, under-repped feature as it turns out...
8090@8090_Factory

Switching from Claude Opus 4.7 to Codex GPT-5.5 is one keystroke. The prompts, evals, and checklists tuned for the old model are not. Software Factory is the control plane: Requirements, Blueprints, Work Orders, Tests, & Feedback bound by the Knowledge Graph. Build once. Swaps are free. 8090.ai

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Nuclear will continue to go sideways while solar and wind continue to go parabolic. The reasons are a) technological and then b) NIMBY-ism and local regulation. The critical question, as this continues for a while, is when the marginal cost of solar and wind becomes effectively zero (next few years), and the ramp up time for a new MW then also becomes zero what the economics, energy density and time to market of nuclear will have to be to remain competitive. In other words, when will far-field nuclear (ie solar) eat near-field nuclear (ie SMRs and such).
Jesse Peltan@JessePeltan

Solar and wind now both individually generate more electricity than nuclear.

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Jeff Brines
Jeff Brines@JeffBrines·
@chamath I sincerely look up to you and see no way this play works. How is anything 8090 is doing, on its current trajectory, not going to get run over by the SOTA models? I see next to no moat. The people within these companies will harness the power, so what is our actual “alpha”?
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
we hired someone! seems awesome but let's see...
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath

8090 is cranking. Both seat licenses and enterprise deals are growing super quickly and we don’t have the GTM resources to manage either right now. This is your shot. We need young, hungry next-gen AEs to help us. You need to remake GTM in the age of AI and agents. Expect a lot of empathy but little help! This isn’t the job for most. If you are hungry, resilient and hyper intellectual and curious, it may be a good fit. Please see below for more info.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
💯 The hype cycle will soon fade, the trough of disillusionment will set in and a lot of these magical promises will be undone as will the companies that have made them. AI one-shotting is a good way to grow fast but it doesn’t magically make the negative gross margins that come with it a good business idea. The narrow path to victory for these folks is if you can grow super fast and do a well timed sale (Windsurf, Cursor).
Jon Yongfook@yongfook

The idea of "one shotting" an app using AI is a fugazi. If you had to describe my app and all the edge cases I have solved over the years, it would be a prompt the size of a small book, and my app isn't even that complicated. The people promoting creating a business overnight with AI are just selling a get rich quick pipedream. Those grifters are present in every cycle. AI has completely transformed how I work, but you can't push a button and make money. Doesn't work like that.

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Keşfet

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