Charles Jackson

@RihardJarc what about nvidia?

In the next 5 years, the semi space will look a lot different as $GOOGL and $AMZN dominate the design chain... The biggest thing holding $AMZN and $GOOGL's chip business back is the supply chain bottlenecks, which won't last forever.

@JOBhakdi repricing implies PE change… do u really mean that or do you just mean actual massive EPS growth?

Hard to tell when you compare with alternatives - my alpha comes mostly from Predicting what the stock does next , not just from it going up . I do think we are getting potentially closer to a repricing - once cybercab scales , we can quickly reach 2000+ once it truly scales (hundreds of thousands going towards millions). And when this point moves into eyesight , it can get repriced to 1000+ imo, which can easily happen this year. Could it also take until next year? Of course. The question if other opportunities offer safer short term upside is hard to answer (I am sure some do, but which ones?). Always risky to chase ($MU etc). It all depends how deeply you understand other stocks - I understand TSLA much deeper than my other positions, but have significant exposure to MSTR , NVDA and HOOD (now more hood after recent drop ). MSTR and BTC (and ETH) are probably close to an inflection point. $MU is clearly super bullish, but stock went up a lot. Same for Intel. I do think some diversification into core AI, semi, Mag7 and crypto is a good idea - but underestimating TSLA repricing potential this year would be a mistake imo

@alojoh oh okay! all is good as long as we get access to the report like before.

The report will drop soon but, as I stated previously, all direct buy/sell/hold/short/cover etc trading signal moved to HC. This is courtesy of the Dunning Kruegers and the masses who never helped us. This gave rise to the idea of the HC. Only regret I have not starting it sooner.

Meta is down 7% after reporting results. We crunched Meta's numbers and analysed management's commentary. In the attached thread we share our view on whether one should add/sell/short/cover a Meta position at the current $620. Our deep dive report follows... x.com/alojohhardcore…

@graciehartie my sg contractors compete hard for our business.. i doubt it’s low stress

Just for fun, I took a precision CNC milling class. I wanted to build a DIY Manual washer, but ended up in a class way beyond that. The instructor was the factory boss himself. Previously flew to China to fix Nokia manufacturing issues, now works with the Aerospace/semiconductor industry. My takeaway: CNC is seriously underrated in Singapore. Stable. Low stress. Government-backed because it’s strategically important. Little competition, almost no locals look at this industry. I DONT WANT BIRKIN BAG. I’m autistic. BUY ME A CNC MACHINE!!!

@duncancampbell @LimitingThe because wartsila sounds like godzilla covered in warts

Today is a good day to ask why Bloom is worth $65B and Wartsila is worth $23B. Both are power generation equipment stocks trading on AI growth. Wartsila now has 2.4 GW of real and binding hyperscale AI orders for actual projects. Bloom has several framework agreements but few details on actual hyperscale AI datacenter projects as far as I can tell.

Oh man. I just listened to the $TSLA call and it's very cringe-worthy. Tesla was up ~4% on what seemed like a beat before the call and after the call, the stock ended down. Tomorrow might be even worse as people start to digest all the info. Energy business, which was supposed to be growing rapidly and make up for the car-business shortfall, is down y-o-y. The Fremont factory conversion getting ready for Optimus, appears to be behind schedule based on Elon's comments. They set expectations that CapEx growth is going to be massive going forward as Tesla continues to invest in AI and factories. Slow Robotaxi rollout was initially blamed on regulators, then later Elon gave lots of examples of edge cases that he thought were so funny, but the issues need to be resolved before rollout. This is something that many people have been saying for a long time. Being "scared of crossing railroad tracks" is no joke! Then the whole HW3 fiasco...Finally another admission that HW3 will never achieve FSD. So many people paid between $6K - $15K for HW3. The lawsuits around this are not going to be good. Then there's the recurring New Roadster demo, which is perpetually a month away and always continues to be a month away! 🤣 With a PE of 214, you can't even say "but look at the future" because the forward PE is expected to be even worse at 248! Ouch. As someone who held $TSLA stock for ~9 years (2015 to 2024), I can't help wonder what people see in it today?

@realroseceline how much of this is priced in? how much execution risk is discounted for?

Thoughts on $TSLA $TSLA is clearly no longer just a car company and this report makes that obvious. Musk is basically walking on water right now. The fact that he’s building autos, energy, AI, robotics, and a Robotaxi network all at once while still producing serious free cash flow is something you almost never see in business. And yeah, people are going to point to the PE and say it’s expensive, but that completely misses what’s actually going on here. Quite frankly, that argument is moronic and shows a lack of understanding of what’s being built. Most companies struggle to do one thing well. $TSLA is trying to solve manufacturing, energy, autonomy, AI infrastructure, robotics, and fleet economics all at once. And somehow it’s still generating billions in free cash flow. That’s not normal, it’s not even comparable. They’re scaling the core auto business, building energy, and at the same time pouring capital into AI and autonomy. This is an entirely different economic model. The bet is simple, give up near term margins to build something that looks more like software later. Revenue was $22b, up 16%. That came from more deliveries, services up 42%, better pricing, and more FSD revenue. But not all of it was perfect. Energy was down and regulatory credits fell, so the growth was still good, but mixed. Profitability improved, but let’s not pretend this looks like a software company yet. Operating income was about $900m with a 4.2% margin and $500m in net income. Margins are moving up, but they’re still low relative to what this business could become. The reason is obvious. They’re spending heavily on AI, R&D, and infrastructure, and SBC is still elevated. That’s their strategy, and they’re deliberately compressing margins today to build something much bigger over time. Cash flow is what matters most because they generated roughly $4b in operating cash flow and $1.4b in free cash flow. That’s very impressive, but they’re also spending $2.5b on capex and invested $2b into SpaceX. This is still a capital heavy business today, even if the long term goal is to become asset light. The balance sheet is what makes all of this possible. Around $45b in cash and a massive asset base. That gives them time, and time is everything when you’re trying to build something this ambitious. Every dollar $TSLA generates isn’t being returned, it’s being redeployed into AI compute, factories, and vertical integration. This isn’t a company optimizing earnings, it’s a company allocating capital into optionality. The question isn’t margins today, it’s what those dollars earn over the next decade. This quarter, operations were a bit more mixed. Deliveries were 358k, up 6%, while production was 408k, up 13%. Inventory moved up to 27 days. That’s not alarming, but it tells you demand isn’t running away from them anymore. They are no longer supply constrained. FSD is my favorite part of the report. Subscriptions hit 1.28m, up 51%. That’s a huge deal because it is an early signal of the shift from selling a car once to monetizing it over time. If that works, the entire model changes drastically. At 1.28m subscribers, even modest pricing starts to matter big time. At $100 a month, that’s roughly $1.5b a year. Scale that across tens of millions of vehicles and the numbers start to get enormous. This is how a car company slowly becomes a software company. Energy had a weak quarter with storage down 15%, but I wouldn’t overreact. This business is lumpy and new capacity is coming online. Longer term, it’s still a meaningful growth driver. Meanwhile, the infrastructure keeps getting stronger. The Supercharger network is growing close to 20% with over 8,400 stations and roughly 80,000 connectors. People don’t talk about this enough, but it’s a huge advantage. 1/2 👇

My thoughts on Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings: It’s become clear that 2026 will not be the breakthrough year that Tesla investors would’ve hoped - at least from an earnings perspective. There’s been a softening of language on the biggest levers that Tesla will pull to materially increase its valuation. Robotaxi scale was softened to “depends on what you mean by scale”. Optimus in any meaningful volume is not happening until 2027 due to the time it takes to revamp the Fremont line (understandable). The showcase of the Bot is being reserved until summer of this year - which could get pushed out again. On the positive end, demand for Tesla vehicles appears to be increasing, and adoption of FSD is accelerating. This can be seen in the auto margins, which allowed Tesla to have one of their best in a while in a seasonally depressed quarter. What we should see is as Tesla’s production re-accelerates, the cost per unit of production will come down, while the net price per vehicle will go up as more and more people purchase FSD subscriptions. This means that margins on the auto business should continue to rise. This should give Tesla the best large-scale auto margins in the world into 2027. This should materially increase again when Tesla releases Unsupervised FSD for the HW4 fleet, which my guess is will come at a premium. I find it hard to see Tesla charging $99 a month for a personal chauffeur where you no longer have to pay attention. The premium on that is far greater. Imagine being able to do whatever you want in your car while it takes you to point A to point B. Big deal! Another positive (depending how you look at it) is that there’s maximum clarity on HW3 vehicles not achieving Unsupervised, and Tesla will a) offer a discounted trade-in rate on HW3 vehicles that purchased FSD outright and b) will work to upgrade the vehicles to HW4 so that they can be Unsupervised. This is because a car that is a Robotaxi is worth FAR MORE than one that isn’t, and even if the cost to retrofit a HW3 car was $10k+ or more, Tesla would make the money back (and then some) in fares. Basically a no brainer, if the path for an upgrade actually exists, which now we’ve gotten confirmation that there is. In the next 12 months, I think Tesla’s biggest catalyst (by far) is the adoption of FSD on a growing fleet of vehicles that will eventually go unsupervised, which will give Tesla recurring revenue at 80%+ margin on a fleet of vehicles that will continue to grow over time, and as regulations allow it. If you fast forward to the end of 2027, Tesla should be able to have over 5 million cars generating at least $99 per month in recurring monthly revenue, almost all of which drops down to the bottom line, because the cost of the hardware and compute is already baked into the business. That’s roughly $6 billion in net income per year added to the bottom line, and growing. That’s ~166 P/E at a $1T valuation on growing software revenue AND margins. To me, that seems pretty fair. Honestly, might even be undervalued. Just look at Palantir. This is while the company needs to invest heavily on CAPEX for Optimus, Cybercab, and Terafab, all of which are extremely important for the company’s long-term trajectory. The question now becomes how fast can Tesla materially increase FSD revenue at 80%+ while it waits to ramp Robotaxi & Optimus. Overall, IMO, very good quarter for the long term prospects. The acceleration in FSD adoption is a big signal that says Tesla is capable of capitalizing on recurring revenue, and as the software gets to unsupervised, it should increase materially in the coming quarters. But as far as the next 12 months go, it continues to be a waiting game on the biggest levers for Tesla. NFA. $TSLA

Elon on when @Tesla FSD Unsupervised will reach customer owned cars: "I'm just guessing, but probably Q4 of this year. We would release it gradually if a particular geography is confirmed to be safe."

Elon on FSD V14.3: It is the last piece of the puzzle for Unsupervised FSD. But we have a lot of major architectural improvements (coming), so I think it's not going to make sense for us to deploy large scale robtotaxi before deploying those improvements.

Elon Musk on what milestones Tesla is targeting for Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin this year: "We certainly hope to have Robtaxi operating in, idk, a dozen or so states by the end of this year. We're taking a very cautious approach. We haven't had any injuries. We want to keep it that way. I think probably Unsupervised revenue will not be super material this year, but probably will be material in a significant way next year."

@TimurNegru can foreigners buy?

A family in Portugal is selling their 40-acre estate. It's inside a protected natural park. Farmhouse restored in the local style. A natural spring, a stream running through the land, two dams, and a well 75m deep. It also has olive trees, fruit trees, and a cork oak forest. In Portugal, cork oaks are protected by law. You can't cut them down. But every 9 years you can harvest the bark, and it grows back. The harvested cork goes into wine stoppers, flooring, insulation, handbags, shoes, even aerospace panels. This estate's trees currently hold about 24 tons of it. The estate covers three parcels. The house sits on the first and can be expanded by over 50%. The other two have potential for new builds. €782k ($920k), direct from the owner. Happy to do an intro for anyone seriously interested. Serra de São Mamede, 2km from the Spanish border. At night, there's no light pollution and according to the owners you can see the Milky Way. What would you do with a place like this?

@SawyerMerritt so cursor sold a 60bil strike call at 10b premium expiring this year

Wow, Cursor has given SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor later this year for $60 billion or "pay $10 billion for our work together." "The combination of Cursor’s leading product and distribution to expert software engineers with SpaceX’s million H100 equivalent Colossus training supercomputer will allow us to build the world’s most useful models."

@0x_ZHUANG i also think that NS beats people into mindless compliance and conditions one not to question the norm.

Was asked today on how the start-up space in Singapore looks among youth 🇸🇬 From my lens, peers from top universities rarely go after the entrepreneurial route. The default path is still clear: internships → grad role → climb. Safe & predictable. and I do think Singaporeans are far more risk-averse than they should be. A few reasons. Firstly, National Service. Two years from 18–20 sounds small on paper, but it removes a critical window, the most “risk-free” years of your life. By the time men graduate at 24–26, the clock already feels like it’s ticking. Less room to experiment, more pressure to settle down and to get it right immediately. Secondly, cost of living. Singapore is expensive. Every year a startup isn’t profitable, it’s not just “experience”, it’s real financial pressure. Rent, lifestyle, expectations. Combine that with graduating later, and suddenly you’re expected to think about stability, housing, and long-term commitments right out of school. Risk becomes a luxury. Thirdly, culture. Singapore prides itself as a talent hub. However, if we’re honest, it’s a hub for world-class employees, not risk-takers. Our system trains you to follow rules, optimise for grades, and win in structured environments. Not to break things and build from zero. Even at a personal level, I remember making my first 10k months at 19 running a sneaker shop. Instead of pride, it was met with skepticism. “Not stable.” “Not a real path.” The expectation was always: go corporate, climb the ladder, earn your stripes. That mindset is deeply ingrained. And it’s a shame, because Singapore has insane talent density. Smart, driven, resourceful people. Yet so many end up as middle/upper management in overseas giants instead of building their own. Of course, there are exceptions. The hungry few who take the leap and make it work. I can’t help but wonder, if even a fraction more took that risk, Singapore would not just be a “talent” hub, it would become the epicenter of innovation in Asia. The ingredients are already here: dense talent, strong infrastructure, smart capital, global connectivity. If that mindset ever shifts, Singapore become more than just a place that produces talent. It starts becoming the place where Asia’s next generation of iconic companies are born.

@EmmetPeppers elaborate please! we need a new chat with @heydave7 !

Hot take to blow average person’s mind: Tesla is BY FAR the most undervalued company in S&P 500 right now This will be very clear to everyone within 5 years, if not sooner $TSLA

@chrisgpt where does the inflow of money go? they can’t immediately buy more anthropic or openAI right? @grok

This fund has a 20% exposure rate for anthropic and a 20% exposure rate for open AI and people don’t know how to act… Up 811% in one week😭