CC

@GarciaCap he closed those out at $100 per share. Keep up

Michael Burry with his $PLTR puts rn

@capybaraReborn The problem with those 2X leveraged is you almost need to close those after every trading day to avoid going past the point of no return. If you know what i mean

This is why I’ve taken a $5.7 million short position on $NBIS today. To start off, I wanted to acknowledge Nebius is a great company. Its stock price has just been completely disconnected from reality lately. When Arkady Volozh left Yandex and kept Nebius assets instead of his shares, many thought he was crazy, turns out it was a visionary decision. The business Volozh has built at $NBIS is the true mark of a great entrepreneur. Yet, even Volozh is a seller of Nebius stock, selling this year 10% of his position at prices starting $100/share. In fact, company insiders have been steadily selling shares with 24 sells in the past 7 months. They see this too. It seems the disconnect from reality happened near the $100/share mark, which I believe is the fair value of the company and also where insiders started selling their shares. Let’s start with the first reason why Nebius is currently overvalued, which is in its essence. $NBIS builds data center to offer GPUs as a service to hyperscalers, many will hear GPUs and go crazy, but what does that actually mean? It means that Nebius takes on the CAPEX spending and investments to build the data center, buy the GPUs, take on the commercial risk and then rent out the created capacity to hyperscalers. Despite the trendy words, one can start thinking - why do hyperscalers not build it themselves if that’s a great business? The answer is the same as to why you wouldn’t want to build your own house. You could, but you’d spend more time than just hiring a general contractor so you let him take a small markup. Same question is why doesn’t NVIDIA own businesses like NBIS - because it captures the vast majority of profit margin by selling the chips at high prices to Nebius. In fact, Nebius takes on a lot of commercial risk to buy GPUs and then rent them out m like a car leasing company would, taking some markup in the process. When you look at it this way, like a contractor buying chips, data centers and renting out the computer, you realize $Nbis does not have infinite upside of AI but rather sits in a tight grasp between Nvidia and hyperscalers like a provider of equipment that it does not create. At the end of the day, Nebius has ever rising costs to buy the compute ( fast depreciating assets that last only 3-4 years (GPUs)) and competition to sell the compute to hyperscalers who can always decide to build themselves as many of them are starting to like Meta and Space X, Once you lift this veil, you realize Nebius is an equipment leasing company trading at AI multiples as it’s upside is capped but it takes on all of the risk (which is why neither Nvidia nor hyperscalers are entering this business in a meaningful way, as the profit margin is not there). All of the above would not be a problem, if it weren’t for the price of the business. Below 100, it could be an interesting buy at 80-90, but up here it’s a clear sell, and here is the math. What is currently assumed about the business is it will get $3-3.4 billion in revenue for 2026. Against that, it will spend 25 billion in CAPEX to develop the data centers. All of Nebius’s upcoming capacity is pre-sold, meaning that’s already baked into the price. The thing is, even data centers that are theoretical are currently counted as if they were already going to be built for sure and leased out for sure at top dollar. So the question becomes, what can the business do to outperform expectations when it can realistically never live up to the current ones. Meanwhile Meta, which is their largest customer, is already building a platform to offload excess capacity as per their earnings. Even if all goes right - it’s worth less. It likely won’t all go perfectly, so it’s likely even less. My math puts the fair value given a DCF valuation today at roughly 100 per share. Feel free to tell me where I’m wrong,

@bubbleboi I need some screen shots buddy

I sold out of it

@smartertrader Do you write your call outs in gibberish so people cant tell if you are write or wrong after?

mu to 872 adn oh my no one will ever need cloths again at home

@bubbleboi I will take the shorter term spot rental and rent it out at even shorter term spot rental as the middle man to the middle man

What if I just lock in long term contracts at all the neoclouds and rent them out to other startups on shorter term spot prices and capture the difference. What could go wrong? Can i become a compute middle man?

@n_hatami Tom lee needed this to cover his ETH losses 😂

Small caps are having a good year!

In my opinion we don’t see meaningful momentum start up again in semi’s until rates get cut

@BlackMambaMilli Praying that money rolls into semi’s

SpaceX was an unprofitable $3 TRILLION company Now it’s an unprofitable $1.4 TRILLION company 2 months later Where the FU*K did $1.6 TRILLION go that fast?

@Investingcom Imagine how bad it would be to have companies make more and more profits. 😱

GOLDMAN: THE REAL AI RISK IS AN EARNINGS BUBBLE, NOT VALUATIONS

You thought July was bad for semi’s?? Just wait

A fresh new week in Nasdaqistan starts tomorrow

@InTheAssembly You have a choice to make: A. Cry its not fair Or B. Get rich and buy the early access

JUST IN: Trump Media’s paid early-access service for Trump’s posts is live. $100,000 a month gets trading firms his market moving posts before the public sees them.

@Kalshi Bro is an all or nothing kinda dude

JUST IN: Oracle is now spending all its revenue on capex

@Polymarket He’s about to join SBF and Leo 🙏

Ken Griffin watching Leopold walk into Citadel HQ Monday morning after his wedding

Citadel most likely will block trade to the other funds now to de risk

@optionscjp Too many open positions i would have just smashed the 200 june 2026 call

@CLVC98 Why?

$AMZN leaps doing well today

This is pretty much half of X investors today

@stan100x Actually you wouldn’t have. Be still worth a few billions 😂

“Do you realize that, when it’s all said and done, even after being down 50%, you’ll still have outperformed Leopold?” Me :