CNAS

Focusing only on restricting China’s access to advanced chips risks sacrificing lasting leverage by leaving glaring loopholes. New from @janet_e_egan and @michellesnie on the MATCH Act, which was marked up by @HouseForeignGOP and @HouseForeign today⬇️

🎧New on Brussels Sprouts🎧 @AlexGabuev and @yaffaesque join @AKendallTaylor and @jteurope to discuss whether domestic pressure is rising in Russia. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. cnas.org/publications/p…

Why does Balikatan matter? 17,000 personnel, Japanese combat troops on Philippine soil for the first time since WWII, and NMESIS/HIMARS deployments show the U.S., the Philippines, and allies are scaling up deterrence and improving interoperability across the First Island Chain

There’s stalemate in the Strait, with the global economy held hostage. The US is considering new options to break the jam: 1. Oil today hit a four-year high. Across the world, inflation is up and growth down. The U.S. is blockading Iranian ports and Iran is blockading the globe. And there is no end in sight. 2. Some are claiming that Iran must cave soon. Its economy, weak before the war, is in shambles. President Trump says Iran is running out of oil storage, and that the backup will “explode” its infrastructure in about three days. He said that four days ago. 3. Betting on Iran’s spontaneous combustion seems like a suboptimal approach to ending the war, to say nothing of reducing energy prices. Tehran has instead proposed a narrow deal to end the blockades. 4. Trump has rejected the approach, rightly worrying that ending the U.S blockade will remove key leverage over Iran, and that future talks on other issues will never bear fruit. So the current approach is to close its ports until Iran submits. 5. But the Iranians retain leverage too, and that’s the problem. Its conventional navy was destroyed but it can still block the Strait of Hormuz. The DIA director recently said that Iran retains thousands of missiles and drones. It is absorbing economic pain but inflicting it as well. 6. A battle of blockades is a bet on the clock: we can hold out longer than they can. Expecting Iran to submit is, however, more questionable than before. From all indications, Iran is now a thinly-veiled military dictatorship. With the IRGC in charge, Iranian agreement on the nuclear file, missiles, support for proxies, and more is virtually unthinkable. 7. Hence the focus on new options, including bombing Iran back to the negotiating table. That, however, poses the same problems as before – attacks on civilian infrastructure harm Iranians but may not move their oppressors. Tehran might retaliate against energy facilities in the Gulf. And there’s no guarantee it’ll work. 8. Some allies are getting testy. The Germany chancellor said that America is being “humiliated” by the Iranian leadership, which is not terribly friendly. Trump reacted by threatening (once again) to pull U.S. troops from Germany. He’d do better to elicit a firm German commitment to join a postwar coalition that will secure the Strait. 9. Ensuring that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon is a necessary goal. Stopping its support for proxies, capping its missiles, and ending its domestic repression are very desirable ones. But reopening the Strait should be the immediate aim. That probably requires an interim agreement to lift the twin blockades, leaving other issues to be resolved and, critically, keeping in place all the other forms of pressure. Otherwise, the U.S. has simply bet on the clock, and the clock is ticking.

Register to join! events.cnas.org/usjapanphilipp…

Next Week 🗓️ Join CNAS for a live event on U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral cooperation as they work to deter aggression from China and preserve regional stability 🎙️ @LisaCurtisDC 🎙️ @MaryKayCarlson 🎙️ @Henrietta_Ivy 🎙️ @RyanHClaffey

In the second essay, David Aaron writes that "requiring clear and prominent identification of an officer’s agency affiliation would enhance accountability and professionalism by officers and clearly communicate those officers’ authority to civilians." cnas.org/publications/c…

In the first essay of the series, @carriecordero gives two common sense recommendations. 1. Law enforcement should ditch the camo. 2. Both federal and state governments should adopt legislation providing basic requirements for law enforcement identification, including a limit on masking and the addition of an identifier that provides accountability. cnas.org/publications/c…

"Law enforcement should ditch the camo," writes @carriecordero in the first essay of a new commentary series examining the legal frameworks of law enforcement uniforms. Read the full Geared Up series here: cnas.org/geared-up-lega…

@cpilkerton @OIS @EmilyKilcrease1 Watch the full event: events.cnas.org/firesidechatwi…

Yesterday, CNAS hosted a conversation with Assistant Secretary @cpilkerton of @OIS. He and @EmilyKilcrease1 dove into how Treasury hopes to strengthen and streamline investment security programs, key CFIUS initiatives, and the program's role in broader trade and foreign policy.

Yesterday, Assistant Secretary Chris Pilkerton joined @CNASdc for a fireside chat on the Administration’s investment security agenda. The discussion highlighted efforts to modernize the CFIUS processes, strengthen outbound investment oversight, and advance new initiatives including the Known Investor Program and the Investment Security Technology Initiative to better address emerging national security risks.

It's blockade vs. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, with the Iran nuclear dispute waiting in the wings. Broke everything down on the @NatSecMatters Podcast with @michaelallenJMA. Check it out: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blo…

🎧 Listen wherever you get your podcasts 🎧 cnas.org/publications/p…

"I think many people haven't realized . . . that burden shifting isn't actually a question of spending more money . . . it's about taking over this skeletal body . . . to have Europeans in charge of far more." 🎙️ Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO

Is the U.S. Hormuz blockade sustainable? What does a real nuclear deal with Iran look like? Host @michaelallenJMA sits down with @RHFontaine, CEO of @CNASdc, for a clear-eyed read on where this standoff is actually headed. 🎧 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nat…

WATCH @cpilkerton explores the administration’s perspectives on investment security and its ongoing efforts to both strengthen and streamline investment security programs x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

How does @cpilkerton view the role of CFIUS in the broader investment security agenda at @USTreasury?

LIVE with @cpilkerton and @EmilyKilcrease1 for a conversation on investment security as a central pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy 👇 x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

🎧 Listen wherever you get your podcasts 🎧 cnas.org/publications/p…

"It does require a very different NATO . . . and I think the challenge for NATO is going to be . . . for the U.S. leadership, including military leadership, to let go a little bit. To admit that, you know, maybe this is not the way the U.S. would do it, but that's okay." 🎙️ @camille_grand