Andrew Sinclair, CFA
13.8K posts
@CT_Osprey
Loose fiscal or monetary policy leads to long-term inequality. Love macro, nature & a good laugh.
Watch this interview with @dianeswonk explaining to @Kathleen_Hays on Central Bank Central why this Friday, the all-important monthly jobs report is effectively eclipsed by the war in Iran and knock-on effects. kathleenhays.substack.com/podcast
When I graduated from Stanford Business School, I had no savings & $40k in student loans The net worth I've built since then has been 100% self-made, which I'm proud of But I'd have accepted help along the way (e.g., inheritance) had any come along Which best describes you?
Pizza activity around the Pentagon is experiencing an extreme spike this evening. Papa Johns Pizza (2.3 mi) at 625%, Domino's Pizza (1.4 mi) at 296%, Extreme Pizza (0.5 mi) at 270%, and Pizzato Pizza (2.2 mi) at 179%. DOUGHCON level is 3.
Pam Bondi led this Department with strength and conviction and I’m grateful for her leadership and friendship. Thank you to President Trump for the trust and the opportunity to serve as Acting Attorney General. We will continue backing the blue, enforcing the law, and doing everything in our power to keep America safe.
Starting a war with Iran was always going to spark a quagmire. Every informed and unbiased analyst knew it, including today’s guest. Professor Jiang Xueqin correctly predicted how messy this conflict would become, and he didn’t do it by chance. Xueqin’s years of studying game theory, historical patterns, and eschatology make him uniquely equipped to forecast geopolitics and world affairs. Now that this war is underway, what will happen next? Was this the plan all along? Is there anything the U.S. can do to fix it? Professor Xueqin joined The Tucker Carlson Show to map it all out. Watch the full episode below:
🚨BIG WARNING: THE FIRST MAJOR DOMINO HAS FALLEN. Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager with $307.5 billion in AUM. The reason they are permanently halting redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) is to manage a "liquidity mismatch" caused by a surge in withdrawal requests. But isn't this issue related to Blue Owl only? Well, this is certainly not the case. Blue Owl’s move to permanently restrict redemptions is signalling broader stress in $3 trillion private credit market. Here are a few warning signs: Roughly 40% of direct lending companies are generating negative free operating cash flow. 30% of companies with debt maturing before 2027 have negative EBITDA, making them extremely difficult to refinance. Default rates for middle-market (MM) borrowers have reached 4.55% and are only rising . Downgrades have outpaced upgrades for seven consecutive quarters. If the stress continues in the private credit market, it'll first impact the small businesses for whom the private credit market is a critical funding source. Additionally, it'll cause refinancing costs to go up and will result in more defaults, which will create a vicious cycle. The only way to stop this is by lowering interest rates and providing liquidity. This is probably why the Fed pumped $18 billion into the economy overnight, as more entities are experiencing a liquidity crunch. But this amount is too small to stop stress in the private credit market. The Fed would have to go full dovish here, or the dominos will continue to fall.
