Callam Pickering

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ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads steadied in late 2024, rising 0.5% q/q in Q4, the first quarterly rise since Q3 2022. This follows a cumulative decline of 13.8% over the first three quarters of the year (quarterly average). @MadelineDunk @cfbirch @CallamPickering #ausecon

Indeed senior economist @CallamPickering said, "Hiring activity typically grinds to a halt during December, but there were some sectors, such as childcare, construction and some healthcare professions, where hiring ramped up towards the end of the year." #ausecon #auspol

Over the past year, government-aligned industries (healthcare & social assistance, education and public admin & safety) account for more than 80% of jobs growth. It highlights the growing divide between big spending government and a struggling private sector #ausbiz #auspol

Australian labour productivity fell a further 0.4% in the September quarter. It's down 5.7% from its peak. Remarkably labour productivity basically hasn't changed in nine years and this really should be the key economic talking point leading into the next election #auspol

Well this is gross ... Australian GDP per capita fell for the 7th consecutive quarter and is now down 2.1% from its peak #ausbiz #auspol

Australian economic growth was entirely driven by government spending in the September quarter. Very small subtraction from consumption and a much bigger subtraction from inventories #ausbiz #auspol

The Australian economy expanded by 0.3% in the September quarter - falling short of market expectations - to be 0.8% larger than a year ago. Ignoring the pandemic, annual economic growth is at its lowest level since the early 1990s recession #ausbiz #auspol

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 1.3% m/m in Nov, but is up 1.7% on its Aug low. The sharp fall in retail ads in Nov suggests some of the lift in Sep and Oct Job Ads may reflect early end-of-year-related hiring. @MadelineDunk @cfbirch @CallamPickering #ausecon

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For most people, life wouldn't be any different. Cost-of-living pressures and mortgage rates would be practically identical under both parties. Both would have splashed cash in response to those issues.

Yet more evidence that the American Revolution was a mistake. This would never happen under the Westminster system.

Sensible thread.

Australian labour productivity growth has consistently fallen short of RBA expectations. It's one of the reasons I've been less optimistic about rate cuts than other economists.

Basically, we need wage growth to soften or productivity growth to improve, in order for unit labour costs to return to more sustainable levels. And that'll likely be necessarily for inflation to return consistently to target.

Unit labour costs (labour costs adjusted for labour productivity) continue to grow at an elevated pace. The RBA said it is 'faster than is consistent with inflation being sustainably at the midpoint of their target range.'

The latest forecasts from the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy. Headline inflation expected to be lower by Dec-24 and Jun-24 than in previous SMP. Not much movement on the trimmed mean measure though. Unemployment rate revised upwards slightly.

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 0.3% m/m in October and the series is up 2.6% over the last two months. This suggests the downward trend in Job Ads may be stabilising. @MadelineDunk @cfbirch @CallamPickering #ausecon

Lingering stickiness a bit uncomfortable for the RBA

@swrighteconomy I think that's about double what they had when I was there.

Talk about inflation ... RBA now has 1774 staff, a 12.6% increase 2022-23. At June 2021, they had 1380, so a 29% increase over three years. The Federal Treasury had 1581 staff, by contrast.