Callum Thomas

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The equal-weighted S&P500 has broken out to new highs. 2. Space stocks are soaring following the SpaceX IPO filing. 3. SpaceX (SPCX) could end up with an index weight of 3%*. 4. The mega-IPO wave is a sign of the times (late-cycle signal). 5. The swearing-in of a new Fed Chair might be a bearish omen. Overall, the bull market got a bit more bully this week with the breakout of the equal-weighted index. But the arrival of a new Fed Chair and IPO boom points to a more volatile horizon… (click through to charts 👇) $SPY $SPX $ES_F $MACRO

@Alleninvests helps establish the sector/asset class

Do you think a future SpaceX IPO helps or hurts companies like $RKLB?

Link to charts (click): chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The equal-weighted S&P500 has broken out to new highs. 2. Space stocks are soaring following the SpaceX IPO filing. 3. SpaceX (SPCX) could end up with an index weight of 3%*. 4. The mega-IPO wave is a sign of the times (late-cycle signal). 5. The swearing-in of a new Fed Chair might be a bearish omen. Overall, the bull market got a bit more bully this week with the breakout of the equal-weighted index. But the arrival of a new Fed Chair and IPO boom points to a more volatile horizon… (click through to charts 👇) $SPY $SPX $ES_F $MACRO

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and… This week: equal upside, the SpaceX factor, space stock allocations, index inclusion, IPO market trends and signals, new Fed Chair, rates outlook, tail risk flag...

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm coming soon… In the meantime be sure to head over and check out last week’s edition if you missed it + subscribe to receive the next update: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and… chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

@dailydirtnap yup

I don't know one single person who is "overinvested" in bonds.

Bitcoin -- your view?

@hamptonism no retail investor is competing against them, they are not playing the same game. When you start to visualize how many different games are being played by wildly different players it starts to look a little bit less zero/minus-sum... (at least on the micro level)

Just a friendly reminder - these are the quants you’re competing against.

services slipping

Space

Link to source + Chart of the Week archives (+subscribe for more updates like this): chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the…

Chart of the Week - Space Stocks While most people are focused on AI stocks and Big Tech, this equal-weighted basket of space stocks* is up 17x off the low point in late-2022. This reflects some major strides that several of these companies are making as the commercial space sector goes from dream to reality, but a key part of the more recent run-up is also down to anticipation of the SpaceX IPO. My personal view is the commercial space sector and space economy will one day be much larger than even some of today’s biggest themes and sectors (and thus has a lot of growth ahead). So I reckon this is something to pay more attention to if it’s not yet on your radar, and it’s probably still early days in this story… Bottom line: space sector stocks have soared.

Weekly Macro Themes Report (preview) - Global Equities, Software stocks, Bitcoin, US Dollar Check out the Charts + Takeaways: topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro…

One more thing… I’ll let the slide below do most of the talking, but basically, as alluded — there is nuance when taking theory into practice. And I would add, valuations are an important piece of the puzzle, but not the only piece (my approach = use many different puzzle pieces to find the true picture).

ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and… Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @zerohedge @RealAlpineMacro @SoberLook @WallStJesus @GlobalMktObserv @topdowncharts @BrianSozzi @SnippetFinance

Click through for source + Chart Of The Week archives: chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the…

Chart of the Week - Valuation Heights A key theme from the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm was that the Stockmarket is currently in the process of “letting-off steam” following the sharp rebound-rally. Valuations were one key example of “steam” building up… Bigger picture, we are in a cyclically overheated market, the various valuation indicators say it’s expensive, and that does create a risk of rapid resets and eventual valuation mean reversion. This is the risky end of the cycle. And before you tell me about AI buildout and all the rest of the good reasons why stocks are going up, I understand that, and so does everyone else, and let me assure you — there is always a reason. Bulls, Booms, and Bubbles start with good reason, and end when things get unreasonable. So, on the topic of today’s chart, are valuations unreasonable yet? Objectively speaking, the composite valuation indicator below is in the risky/expensive zone. It’s from around these levels that the market crashed in 1987, the dot com bubble peaked, and the 2021 stimulus frenzy fizzled out. Those are 3 very different markets, and so yes it is different this time. But the risk of downside echoes on. From a pragmatic standpoint though, in the end, aside from freak crashes or crises, the thing that causes markets to go down in a sustained fashion (aka bear markets) is economic recession causing earnings declines and stressing weak spots (ultimately earnings are the key driver of stock prices in the bigger scheme of things). In other words, markets downturns also start with good reason (a catalyst). For now there are no signs of recession, there’s even some bright spots. But I’m keeping close tabs on the earnings pulse, macro leading indicators, and higher frequency cycle trackers, so I will be sure to update as/when/if the facts change… Bottom line: valuation indicators are sounding a background warning tone.

Latest weekly report highlights: topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro…

Fund managers overweight US stocks again.. is the Global vs US rotation over?

(first 3 are all the same thing)