Capital Markets Guy

This is pretty obvious by now, but Florida's housing market is in trouble.

In a room with a bunch of high-net-worth investors. The conversation wasn’t buy more rentals. It was: “Do we sell the entire SFR portfolio?” Most said yes. Recast into other assets. Returns no longer justify the risk. This is how every cycle starts.

BREAKING: A massive line of US Air Force C-17 transport aircraft is currently crossing the Atlantic toward the Middle East, alongside KC-135 refueling tankers. A second wave is already over Europe heading for the eastern Mediterranean. C-17s carry troops, armored vehicles and heavy equipment. This is the largest visible airlift movement since the war began. The Doomsday Plane landed at Andrews tonight for a reason. This may be it.

New York City spent $81,705 spent per homeless person last year. Meanwhile, the household median income was at $81,228, per Newsweek.

• Household survey employment fell 64,000 in March even as the payroll headline said +178,000. • The labor force fell 396,000 and the number of people not in the labor force rose 488,000. That is the main reason the unemployment rate looked better. • Labor force participation fell to 61.9% and the employment population ratio fell to 59.2%. • People not in the labor force who currently want a job were still 6.0 million. • The number of marginally attached workers jumped 325,000 to 1.9 million and discouraged workers jumped 144,000 to 510,000. • U-6 rose to 8.0% even while the official unemployment rate sat at 4.3%. • People working part time for economic reasons rose 101,000 to 4.497 million. • Workers with reduced hours because of slack work or business conditions jumped 269,000 to 3.107 million. • The average private workweek fell to 34.2 hours and the index of aggregate weekly hours fell 0.2%. • Average weekly earnings fell from 1279.05 to 1278.40. • More than half the payroll gain came from health care +76,000 and social assistance +14,000 alone. • Of the 76,000 health care jobs added, 35,000 were just workers returning from a strike in physicians’ offices. • Transportation and warehousing added 21,000, but 20,000 of that was just couriers and messengers. The sector is still down 139,000 from its February 2025 peak. • Federal government lost 18,000 jobs in March and is now down 355,000 from its October 2024 peak. • Financial activities lost 15,000 jobs and are down 77,000 from the May 2025 peak. • Professional and business services added just 2,000 jobs. • BLS itself said payroll employment had changed little on net over the prior 12 months. • The 3 month average payroll gain was only 68,000. • Long term unemployed were 1.8 million, up 322,000 over the year. • 42.3% of the unemployed had been out of work for 15 weeks or longer. Average unemployment duration was 25.3 weeks. • Manufacturing’s employment diffusion index was only 47.9, meaning more manufacturing industries were still cutting jobs than adding them. • BLS also notes the official unemployment rate excludes people who want a job but are not currently looking, which is exactly why a shrinking labor force can make the rate look cleaner than the labor market really is.

US Official: F-15 fighter jet was shot down in Iran.

Vacancies didn’t just rise. They tripled. 2.4% → 8.7% That’s not normal. That’s a shift.