capn_beefy
982 posts




















$KAS -- Interesting observation on Power Law 🌈 Fun fact: I posted this chart 👇 from this post 👉(x.com/J3Charts/statu…) a month before this guy ever posted a thing about #Kaspa It looks similar, right? Pretty weird how the bottom of the red channel where price bottomed out is in the exact same spot as the power law band, isn't it? Well, it's actually not weird. Like with anything else, there are a number of ways to convey the same idea. From extremely complex to as simple as possible. In this case, the idea is simply the 'type' and 'rate' of progression in price and how it's measured. Without diving too much into the weeds, I can tell you all of this revolves around diminishing returns and logarithmic regression. Power law is just a more systematic approach by identifying proportional relationships between different factors of the network and using orders of magnitude to confine price (or whatever) to a certain regression or trajectory over time. 📈 This is cool. Math is cool. Plus, it's an already proven model* on #bitcoin and, so far, it's served its purpose. But the problem is just that: it's a model. Useful until it's not. Very similar to how S2F was useful for a long time until it wasn't, and just because $BTC and $KAS haven't broken the power law yet doesn't mean they never will. ⏳ Anyway, my point with this post is two-fold: 1⃣ Power Law is nothing special. It's a predictive model. PMs are used in basically every industry on earth (think weather forecasting or a company's projected sales) and they have a 100% fail rate given enough time. They become more reliable the more variables they take into account and, even though I don't fully understand the theory (maybe someone who does could confirm), it seems Power Law only considers 2 variables (network effects) per 'power law' ie. price & time, users & hashrate, etc., and then views them as all being proportional. Regardless, at this stage it's not if but when will this model break and, when it does, what decisions will it have influenced in the months prior? Main point: don't put blind faith into something just because it's worked so far and 'cuz math'. 2⃣ Always be critical and have a solid understanding of something before trusting it to dictate your decision making. On top of that, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Like mentioned earlier, this is just a complex way to forecast a logical path of regression over a period of time. This isn't a revelation. Regression is an inevitable part of growth and if you didn't know this, you've got a lot more to learn before Power Law could have even a small meaningful impact on your day to day. Main point: why is this thing useful (to you)? Do you understand it well enough to use it to make confident decisions? If not, maybe search for a simpler method. By the way, this isn't a dig at @MikoGenno. I like his content. I'm just using this post to make a point. Saying $KAS is behaving 'exactly' as expected is a bit much... Like I said, I had that red line there a month before he made his first post about power law. It's not like I knew price would go there, it was just a high probability area for a bottom. 🤷♂️ In my next post I'll show you that I was actually explaining all of these same concepts with $KAS months prior to even that. Hint: it evolved into the Limit Line chart and allowed for this kind of accuracy 👉(x.com/J3Charts/statu…) over multiple months and what will likely end up being years. Stay tuned for that and let me know what you think about Power Law. ✌️






A Smart Contract Data Tracker has been created on the Xelis Stats Website (stats.xelis.io), in anticipation of the Smart Contract Testnet Release! $XEL





















