Carcosa

@baroninvestment Long timeline, a bit too early for me: 2026–2027: Complete PFS + resource upgrades 2027–2028: Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), permitting, financing 2028–2029: Construction ~2029–2030: Initial production 2030+: Ramp-up to meaningful production.

Bit of a long piece but hopefully helpful to holders and those who don't. For STRATEGIC MINERALS, the monster headline from the recent Zeus analysis is that the company can generate today's £183MILLION market cap in cashflow post tax in 8-9 months of production. Cumulative post tax cashflow comes in at a massive >$3.2BILLION with the staggering piece being that it's based on a Tungsten price of $850/mtu and NOT the current >$3,000/mtu levels. It is an extreme valuation anomaly resulting in the shares being totally mispriced right now. It is therefore of no surprise that Zeus recently moved to 14.9p from 4.8p but that's still only 30% of nav and at $850 Tungsten. To quote them "returns will be astronomical if the spot price can be maintained". All of this doesn't factor in too the very realistic scope for further growth upside and from satellite developments within the licenced area. "Together the consistent intersection of the SVS, confirmation of mineralised continuity into new areas and the identification of additional high‑grade tin all point towards the potential for further resource growth". Finer details matter so couple of things regarding the numbers. The cashflow post tax model doesn't include a list of things so time to cover that off immediately (but again remember we're working off very big numbers and $850/mtu, NOT spot!). What's missing that needs capturing? That list comprises working capital movements, mine closure/rehabilitation provisions, UK environmental bonds and of course capex contingencies. But even after such deductions the numbers are still huge with free cash likely well north of the current market cap. If strong prices or even today's pricing persists into production then you're looking at a scenario where yearly free cash flows will be many multiples of today's market cap. For those that have done the work already, this will all resonate (in part or full) but for others that's clearly pretty striking data. Quite simply, the numbers are very big vs the current price tag. Analysts at Zeus just said in their upgrade to 14.9p: "Despite its high-grade of tungsten and its recent improvement in valuation Strategic Minerals remains the lowest valued of all of the companies we identify in our series - especially when set against several of it’s competitor companies which are further back on the development curve as we see it" "It is hitting all the points we expect in a high priority project – it is high-grade; it is open along strike and at depth; it lies in an area known for historical mining and which needs further inward investment; it has tacit local and government support, and; it is progressing in a very robust tungsten price environment – and an environment in which we see demand only set to increase against a poor supply outlook" So now time now to look a bit closer at some of the detail in the recent 29 page Zeus upgrade. Firstly to the numbers and cashflow. WO3 is 85% of revenue so overwhelmingly a Tungsten story. Again, they use $850/mtu for their full production run vs todays record highs >$3,000. Very sensible but illustrates the magnitude of upside too. Tin and Copper assumptions are at $35,000/t and $10,000/t which again is also below spot. Other assumptions include broadly 1MT/yr throughput and a 16-year Life of mine (compared to SMLs 0.6MT/yr and 29-years). Mine site costs yearly at $105m vs $510m net revenues equate to very high margins. That amounts to $0.21 of cost per $1 of revenue and again at just $850/mtu. That's exceptional albeit I would elevate sustaining capex higher. Ebitda with 76% margins would be world class. Pre production capex of $140m vs SMLs $110m which is clearly very light and a major positive for a project of this scale. So what next? Well the shares remain cheap and should re-rate much higher to reflect the economics of this play. It's not just that though, it's recognition that Tungsten is one of the worlds most strategically critical metals with China controlling over 80% of global supply. Entire Western defence and manufacturing industry depends on it. Through STRATEGIC MINERALS, the UK hosts one of the highest grades globally of this metal. A big topic and one that needs to considered too is could STRATEGIC attract an ITM Power-style investment from the UK? Most definitely but probably through different mechanisms. Some thoughts as follows and split to bullets for ease: - National Wealth Funds investments into Cornish critical minerals have already been confirmed with Cornish Lithium twice and Cornish Metals once - totalling £84m. The NWFs stated purpose is to de-risk projects and crowd in private capital. They say "We will work with UK PuFins to identify ways in which critical minerals projects with high potential and strategic value can be supported more effectively by government in a more coherent way" - SML has already received UK Shared Prosperity funding so the government relationship very much exists. Further grants and council grants are probable given the material value created to date. Worth noting that the company recently hosted the MP and Minister for Small Business and Economic Transformation too. - Tungsten’s defence criticality is more acute than tin or lithium so there's a stronger strategic case imo. - The £50m DBT critical minerals fund details to be announced in 2026 and timing aligns with SMLs PFS completion. Chatham House has been precise about what this fund actually is and that's "explicitly framed as catalytic capital". Ultimately, it could be a supplementary grant mechanism that sits alongside any NWF equity investment and UKEF financing. - The numbers so far clearly make a very compelling lending case! Any debt is repaid rapidly and it's a polymetallic deposit too. Ultimately, revenue diversification which reduces lender risk. Anyway, I could go on and one but its time to stop, it's Sunday after all. I have banged the drum for a while on this but recent news flow really does highlight how undervalued this is. Yes, the shares are moving up fast and volume is regularly in the highest range but the disconnect is vast compared to the asset, what it can achieve compared to todays valuation. Exciting times and I trust some of this is useful.

@SharePickers @Ed_Miliband @RachelReevesMP @Keir_Starmer Old data. Presumably much worse now. Here, in Malaysia, I pay 5p/ kWh (higher tier payment)

How can the UK be competitive on a world stage with these prices? @Ed_Miliband @RachelReevesMP @Keir_Starmer

@afneil Over the past 30 years, UK governments of all parties have often looked operationally weak. Is this a decline in political talent, or a deeper structural problem (civil service, centralisation, short-termism)? @afneil

Trump has done more for European Unity in a month than Brussels in several decades!!

@timkempster @reb40 I agree with you, gut feel says w/m and photobooths should not be a viable business, but clearly it is. I live in Kuala Lumpur and the number of laundry 'shops' has increased massively and many vending machines are in them also (food etc). Makes sense here.

@Carcosa61 @reb40 It's not firm yet hence Reach. I hold a fair chunk but I don't get who uses these things. Everyone has a w/m at home. It's a faff and expensive to go out and use one. Anyway numbers look good. They should put them next to EV chargers. EV drivers have time to kill

#MEGP Ooooo I like this one, ME Group washing machines will soon be located in 700 Asda stores nationwide 👍 Single biggest customer win is good to see (though I note it was released as an RNS Reach so non-material which surprises me 🤷🏻‍♀️) I hold

Vietnam slashes fuel taxes to 0% (VAT, environmental, and consumption) to curb inflation amid the Middle East energy crisis. Petrol prices drop ~26%.​ Measures run until at least Apr 15, 2026

@GrowthStocksUK Pure Guess: reflects short-term profit taking after a strong run rather than fundamentals. No short term news flow expected. Covering other losses in portfolio/locking in gains.

#vlx anyone know why #VOLEX is down 6% this morning

#SRT With Middle East conflict ongoing, I see rising operational risk: potential equipment delivery delays, force majeure complications, and challenges around deploying personnel on the ground. Even strong order books can’t offset execution risk in unstable regions.

All PLCs should explain how AI is used. not just mention it. E.G. #RGG deploying AI to read tenant docs, cut decisions to ~1 min (with human oversight), and scale without major headcount growth. That’s measurable implementation investors can judge. #RGG investegate.co.uk/announcement/r…

cntraveler.com/story/river-cr… A positive for #SAGA Strong demand supports high occupancy, pricing power, and returns on its modern fleet. Saga’s affluent, loyal over-50 customer base positions it well to benefit from sustained industry growth and improved long-term profitability.

@laurence_hulse That's a comparison I did not expect.

Society is going to go through its biggest revolution since the invention of contraception IMO.

#AVAP $AVAP.L @AVATION_PLC Avation have recently issued their latest Corporate Presentation avation.net/files/avap_cor… Summed up in my AI graphic below. 52% discount to FY25 NAV; 23% to NTAV. (Highest amongst peers). Buybacks: Up to 25% (16.66m shares) at 75p–200p.

@reb40 If they say they cant increase offer unless they see the books and they have 22% holding then can't they call an EGM to get shareholders to vote on access to the books? Strange situation...

Big week for shareholders as FitzWalters PUSU is 5pm 02/02 To recap this is a playground spat which has been played out in public via RNS FitzWalters potentially offering 400p cash as their final offer But haven’t had access to ATG’s books🤷🏻‍♀️ ATG shares closed at 309p 🍿🥤👀

Stick this in ChatGPT... If UK had a sovereign wealth fund like Norway has that started with North Sea assets then how would that have affected the UK economy today?

#SPI SPire Healthcare responds to media speculation but remains guarded: investegate.co.uk/announcement/r…

@Bhoddhisattva Yes, and just for you here is an auto-generated info-graphic derived from the company's reports and presentations. Good for giving a starting point for further research, I think.

@Carcosa61 Love the graphic - did you use AI to create this?

#VANQ Vanquish Banking Group currently being unloaded as one of several UK companies by Sovereign Wealth fund Norges Bank Investment Management since December. See news.sky.com/story/norwegia…

#AVAP $AVAP.L $AVAP #Avation @AVATION_PLC A 30 min case study interview with @puppyeh1 (ex-major activist shareholder) Key lesson: operational "blocking and tackling" is much harder than the spreadsheet math suggests. youtube.com/watch?v=sCTyev…

@EricUKInvestor Hopefully lower input costs will result in higher profits? tradingeconomics.com/commodity/poly… Maybe

#DFCH Distribution Finance Capital Holdings FY TU & Targets, Record £1.8bn lending (+27%), loan book £846m (+27%, ahead)), adj PBT ≥£17.5m (+22%), TNAV +20% to 75p. Asset finance launched, 2030 targets: loan book >£1.5bn, ~20% ROE, 10–15% TNAV growth, with buybacks/dividends.