Justin Waite

If you are going on holiday and looking for a cracking book to read by the pool, I’ve got the perfect suggestion 😉 My book has just hit 152 (4.9*) reviews on Amazon alone. Buying the book also gets you 25% off The SharePickers Investment Club 👇 sharepickers.com/how-to-become-…

Is a Financial Crisis the Only Event That’ll Stop Labour Spending? The UK now spends roughly £300 million every single day just to pay the interest on its debt. This is twice what we spend on our defence budget and nearly half of what it spends on the NHS. This is not sustainable - PODCAST 👇 audioboom.com/posts/8903977-…

Approximately 30% to 35% of UK gilts are held by overseas investors. Unlike a UK pension fund that must hold Pounds to pay out UK pensions, a foreign investor (like a Singaporean sovereign wealth fund or a New York hedge fund) cares about the value of the Pound relative to the Dollar or Euro. If they think a new government’s spending will cause the Pound to drop, they sell their bonds to get their money out before it loses value. The UK already spends £300m per day on debt interest alone (double that of the defence budget). If yields continue to rise this debt increases driving yields up further. Further selling drives yields up even more (making borrowing more expensive) and the currency down, meaning more debt and higher inflation, creating a vicious cycle. Domestic banks and insurance companies are often "captive" buyers—they are required by UK law to hold a certain amount of safe government debt. Foreign investors have no such obligation. If they see political instability or a "leftward shift" in fiscal policy that they don't like, they can exit the UK market entirely in a matter of minutes.

@SharePickers @PaulaBarkerMP The Truss episode was a pension fund regulatory failure, not a market revolt, and the BoE fixed it at a profit. The bond market is the government’s customer, not its creditor. Read @vincegomez’s piece, it debunks this point by point. vincegomez.com/articles/the-b…

Apparently @PaulaBarkerMP said that the “Bond markets” will have to fall in line with an Andy Burnham premiership if the Manchester mayor pursues a considerably more left-leaning economic platform. If this quote is true it is incredible how little knowledge these left facing MPs have in regard to the UK’s public finances. Here’s a quick reminder: The UK is in debt to the tune of £2.91 Trillion (approx 93.8% of GDP) This is the total debt. In order to pay off this debt government’s income has to be bigger than its expenditure. It is not. The difference between what it spends and what collects (the deficit) was for the most recent financial year £-132 billion. This means the total debt figure is increasing. So who owns this debt? Around 75% - 85% of this debt is held by: Overseas Investors: 30-35% UK Insurance Companies & Pension Funds: 20-25% Private Financial Institutions & Households: ~25% The other 15% - 20% is held by the Bank of England. The cost of this debt is already significantly higher than those of our peers, including the US, Germany, and France. Why? The UK is seen as a "higher-risk" borrower due to its unique debt structure (inflation-linkers), its energy vulnerability, perceived lack of long-term fiscal stability and lack of growth. What do you think will happen if a new Prime Minister lays out plans to spend more money? Firstly the government would have to issue more bonds, which would create a further sell off. Secondly the deficit would grow and this would likely push up our debt to beyond £2.9 trillion. This means the UK becomes an even bigger lending risk. Banks hold large amounts of government bonds. A massive sell-off reduces their capital buffers, potentially leading to a liquidity crunch where banks stop lending to businesses. An extreme rise in 10-year yields would lead to an immediate and sharp increase in fixed-rate mortgage costs, potentially triggering a housing market crash as affordability evaporates. If investors sell bonds because they fear the government's solvency or the inflationary impact of its spending, they also sell the currency. In an extreme scenario, the Pound could see a "flash crash" or a sustained slide toward parity with the Dollar ($1.00). As the Pound weakens, the cost of importing goods (food, fuel, and raw materials) rises. This creates "cost-push" inflation, which forces the Bank of England to raise interest rates even higher to defend the currency, further hurting the economy. Rapid yield spikes could see Pension funds forced to sell assets at a loss to meet collateral calls, as seen in late 2022. Corporate investment would stall as high borrowing costs and currency volatility make it impossible for businesses to plan, leading to a "capital strike" where investment into the UK stops. In the absolute extreme, the government could lose "market access," meaning it cannot find enough buyers for its debt. This would require an emergency intervention from the Bank of England (printing money to buy bonds) or, in a historic collapse, an IMF bailout. An emergency IMF bailout for the UK—the world’s 6th largest economy and a core G7 member—would be a "black swan" event. Unlike bailouts for smaller emerging markets, a UK crisis would fundamentally shake the global financial architecture. As of early 2026, the global bond market is valued at approximately $140 - $150 trillion bigger than the stock markets of the world and 40 times larger than the UK’s entire economy. I suggest @PaulaBarkerMP that you and the rest of your spend happy colleagues should learn to fall in line with “Bond markets”. It is not wise to poke a bear 40 times bigger than you are. @AndyBurnhamGM cityam.com/bond-markets-m…

Trump has done more for Renewables than any Previous President The latest ETC report shows the conflict in the Middle East has accelerated the transition to renewables and its only going one way. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted 20% of global oil supply (18.4 million barrels per day) and 20% of global LNG trade (110 billion cubic meters per year). - Brent Crude at levels above $100 per barrel, contributes to an estimated $1–2 trillion in additional annual energy costs globally. - Global investment in clean energy is projected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2026, as high fossil fuel prices drive capital into renewables. The European "Engine of Growth" - In March 2026, Europe surpassed half a million EV units sold in a single month for the first time—a 37% year-on-year increase driven by soaring petrol prices. - High fuel prices triggered "panic buying" at pumps in France, pushing battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales up 69% year-on-year. - In 2024, nearly half (48%) of all electricity produced in the EU already came from renewables; the 2026 crisis has accelerated the target to reach a 42.5% share of total energy consumption by 2030. United States - Forecasts for 2026 suggest that all net new generating capacity in the U.S. may come from renewable energy and battery storage. - Combined utility and small-scale solar provided over 9% of total U.S. electrical output in late 2025, growing nearly 30% year-on-year—surpassing the output of hydropower, biomass, and geothermal combined. - Wind and solar now provide nearly 20% of U.S. electricity, producing 16.6% more power than coal and 10.8% more than nuclear plants. UK - March 2026 saw 27,000 new solar installations—the highest monthly deployment in over a decade—pushing the UK past two million total solar homes. - April 2026 marked the registration of the two millionth battery-electric vehicle in the UK, with sales jumping 59.1% year-on-year. - AutoTrader reported in April 2026 that the average transaction price of a new electric vehicle (EV) has fallen below that of a petrol car for the first time in UK history. - In April 2026, the UK grid hit a record where 98.8% of electricity was provided by zero-carbon sources for a 30-minute window. Asia - Asia imports 80% of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In 2025, nearly 90% of LNG passing through the chokepoint was destined for Asian markets. - China continues to lead global solar deployment, accounting for the lion's share of the 510 GW of solar added globally in 2025. - India is currently developing wind capacity at a rate nearly twice that of China, with 50% of its planned wind pipeline already under construction as of early 2026. Trump's "Drill, Baby, Drill" mantra and his actions in the Middle East has made the economic case for clean energy undeniable. Fossil fuel systems have proven to be "shock transmitters," while renewables have emerged as the ultimate "shock absorbers." By starting a war to secure a fossil-fueled past, Trump has inadvertently funded a renewable future, ensuring that the legacy of this conflict is the permanent displacement of the very energy sources it sought to protect.

UK government bonds continue to be sold off, meaning the yield and the cost of gov borrowing increases. The pound is also dropping, at a month low against $ & €. The yield on the 10 goverment bond is the highest its been since June 2008, the Great Financial Crisis. Here's some significant news that happened in that month: June 6: Oil prices surged by a record $10.75 in a single day, closing at over $138 per barrel. June 9: Lehman Brothers pre-announced a $2.8 billion second-quarter loss, its first as a public company. June 16: Goldman Sachs: Reported a 10% drop in quarterly profit. FedEx: Issued a major profit warning, citing high fuel costs and a weakening U.S. economy. June 25: The Federal Reserve met to decide on interest rates amid the chaos. June 26: The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 358 points in a single session entering "Bear Market" Territory

"British politics and British parliament can’t be run at the behest of the bond markets. If the British government is gonna be completely dominated by the bond market, MPs might as well go home" Diane Abbott, another Labour MP who does not get it. They think the bond market is this little thing that should listen to them. The UK goverment is £2.9 trillion in debt and global bond market is 40 times bigger than the UK economy @HackneyAbbott 👇👇👇 x.com/SharePickers/s…

EXCLUSIVE from @breeallegretti @patrickkmaguire @Geri_E_L_Scott Wes Streeting has told allies that he is preparing to resign and trigger a leadership contest as soon as tomorrow The health secretary confronted Starmer this morning during a meeting ahead of the King’s Speech that lasted just 16 minutes over the turmoil engulfing the Labour Party Allies of Streeting who have spoken to him directly said that he has made clear that he is “going to go for it”. One said that he is likely to resign on Thursday and mount a formal challenge for the leadership One Streeting ally who has spoken to him said: “He is going to go for it. He’s going tomorrow.” Discussions have also been held to prepare for MPs to sign Streeting’s nomination papers, according to one of those with knowledge of the plans. Another who has spoken to him said that claims by Starmer’s allies that he has “bottled it” are wide of the mark and that he made clear in private that he will make a bid for the leadership A spokesman for Streeting said: “Wes is the Health Secretary, he is proud of his record of falling waiting lists and a recovering NHS. He is not planning to say anything following his meeting with the Prime Minister that might distract from the King’s Speech.” thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…

@Kerijonesradio Went from London to work at BBC Radio Wales and then to Jack FM on South Coast but finished there probably 10 years ago now but still live here. Been in the investing world full time since (even though I was always into it).

@SharePickers hello. How are you? Still in Ldn or back home?

BBC Somerset fail! Don't listen if the C word offends!

And Mr Polanski has now apologised for not paying council tax, but not apologised for misleading The Times with his original response. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Today my wife and I had to do my son’s paper round. I’m 55 and he’s 13. He has been doing it on his bike but saw some of the other paper boys using e-scooters. My son’s scooter is 4 years old and hasn't used it a lot recently so we weren’t sure if the battery would hold up. So I took it on the round today and it worked fine. We also got paid for the week, which worked out at £27. There’s quite a high turnover of paper rounds as some of the boys like the idea of getting money but find the reality of earning it a little more difficult. Getting up before school in all types of weather soon removes any idea that the money is free. Whilst I was on the round I thought about the owner of the paper shop who has to manage 14 paper rounds. Managing working adults' attendance, in a work environment is not easy, imagine having to do it with kids. So I said to my son, “Do you know the difference between a worker and an entrepreneur?” He said, “What’s an entrepreneur?” Once I explained this I said, “A worker like you goes to work, does their job, then gets paid and goes home”. An entrepreneur calls the owner of the newspaper shop and says, “I’d like to take over the management of the paper rounds. Give all the boys my telephone number and any others who ask if there’s any round available. I will deal with recruitment, sickness, paper boys just not turning up, everything. You no longer have to worry about it. You can leave it all to me and you can deal with the rest of your business. Oh and one other thing, it will cost you nothing.” Then the next boy who contacts you asking if there’s a paper round available, and there is one, you say and let him know the pay is £25 a week. Your fee for managing this paper boy is £2 per week. Eventually you will be managing 13 paper boys charging them all £2 a week. This works out to £26 a week. You can also carry on with your paper round at £27 a week. In total you will now be earning £53 a week, nearly double what you did earn. Eventually you may want to give up your paper round but you could still manage the round and would earn £1 more a week more than when you had your round but do not  have to get up in all types of weather to deliver papers.  By the way, after I delivered my last paper today, a car pulled up next to me and wound the window down. I thought it was someone about to have a bit of banter, seeing a father delivering his son’s papers. Maybe saying something like, “Bit old for a paper round aren’t you?” As I looked at the man who had long scraggy grey hair and an unkempt beard, he shouted, “You know driving that thing is illegal don’t you?” I replied with a smile, “Yes” He said, “Then you’re a prat!” I commented, “And you are, look at your hair” He drove off.

Yesterday S4 Capital #SFOR released a Q1 trading update, at one point during the day the share price dropped by -17% only to be bought up, ending the day in positive territory on x3 average daily volume. Since 23rd March #SFOR has experienced 23 up days out of 33 (69% of the time). This is the company Sir Martin Sorrel launched after #WPP. He was CEO of WPP for 33 years, building it from a £1 million 'shell' company in 1985 into the world's largest advertising and marketing services company, with a market capitalisation of over £16 billion on the day he left. Since its inception in 2018 - 2021 S4 Capital has undertaken over 30 acquisitions and mergers. The share price rose 633% from £1.14 in 2019 to £8.70 in 2021 but this is when problems started to set it. A lot of these acquisitions were structured on a 50/50 cash / equity basis. As interest rates went up after 2021 this has a triple negative effect: 1. Their end markets softened 2. Debt increased along with its cost 3. Acquired owners started selling their equity in SFOR The result is the share price cratered by 98% to a low of 16p in November 2025. Since this low the sp has started to climb on the back of cost cutting, debt reduction and the cessation of acquired owners that want to sell, having sold. Therefore 2 of the 3 problems above have been removed. S4 Capital's clients include Google / Alphabet, Meta & Amazon whose spend has recently switched to Capex (data centre building) but a switch back to Op-ex (which includes marketing) would remove the third problem of soft end markets. S4 Capital (through its operating brand Monks) is leading a shift in the advertising industry by moving away from the traditional "billable hour" (time-and-materials) model toward an AI-driven subscription model. The old model focused on Inputs (how many people worked for how many hours). The subscription model focuses on Outputs and Outcomes. S4 Capital has set a goal to have 25% of its total revenue coming from this subscription-based model. They are currently rolling this out to their largest "Whopper" clients (such as Google and General Motors) as these organizations have the scale to benefit most from automated, high-volume content production. S4 Capital (Monks) doesn’t just "use" AI; they build what they call an "Intelligent Creation Engine" for each client. This tool can take one core creative idea and automatically turn it into 400+ unique assets (different sizes for Instagram, different languages for Europe, different backgrounds for different demographics) in minutes/hours for dozens of variants where it would have taken weeks / months previously. If SFOR wins as the pioneer of this new AI subscription model, there's a lot of upside for the company, when end markets pick up. In the meantime positive cashflow this year was £121.1m up 70% on last year allowing them to start paying a dividend with a yield 3%+ whilst right-sizing the business for profitability, even if end markets remain soft. DYOR.

Streeting could be the big winner here if Labour realise they need to pivot to the right #streeting #starmer #reeves

Analysts project that Labour could lose up to 1,850 council seats, the worst mid-term performances for a sitting government in modern British history. The results Labour are suffering are the people of this country telling Labour “You had your chance, you blew it. You have done an awful job and you deserve to lose” Despite their manifesto pledge not to increase "taxes on working people" they have introduced several significant increases including: National Insurance Capital Gains Tax Inheritance Tax Stamp Duty Education Energy Aviation Investment This has targeted: Businesses Workers Pensioners Farmers House buyers Private schools Oil & gas exploration People traveling Investors The UK is currently experiencing its highest tax burden since the late 1940s as the country rebuilt after WWII. The result of their policies has been a growing the welfare system, whilst shrinking employment and business investment, exacerbating the lack of growth this country desperately lacks. Enough is enough. Growth and prosperity for all comes by incentivising a country's workforce and businesses not punishing it via taxation. @Keir_Starmer @RachelReevesMP

Wind and solar have now beaten fossil fuels in Great Britain for a record 15 months in a row Just a decade ago, fossil fuels were generating four times more than wind + solar Now that's flipped: Since the Iran war, wind and solar generated twice as much as fossil fuels

@RCowley185R That's your opion but the stats show its been the fastest-growing sector in the UK car market for nearly a decade and its set to continue. We will see.

@SharePickers No, you cannot claim that about petrol, diesel cars until on the day if gov makes it so that people are trapped, elec wont be bought on their own merits, people just wont buy them

Based on the latest data of new car registrations from May 2026: April saw 149,247 new cars hit the road, a 24% increase year-on-year. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) captured 26.2% of that volume. This surge was fueled by the "26" plate change and aggressive manufacturer discounting to meet the government’s ZEV mandate, which requires 33% of sales to be zero-emission by year-end. In 2021 only 1 in 9 new cars sold was fully electric. Today its 1 in 4. This period has seen diesel collapse from a 14.2% share in 2021 to 4.8% today. The Triple Tipping Point The Adoption Threshold: Economists widely regard the 5% to 10% mark of the total "car parc" (all cars on the road) as the critical tipping point. This is the stage where a technology moves from "early adopters" to the "early majority." With EVs currently making up 5.8% of all UK cars and surging, we have officially entered this point of no return where social acceptance and infrastructure become self-sustaining. Price Parity: For the first time, the average upfront cost of a new EV has dipped below its petrol equivalent. Driven by fierce competition, the average EV now sits at approximately £42,620, compared to the average petrol model at £43,405. The Legislative Cliff: With the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel sales looming, 2026 represents the final cycle where an ICE vehicle can be leased without facing significant depreciation or obsolescence by the end of its term. The tipping point isn't coming—it’s here. For the UK driver, the choice has shifted from "if" to "when.

@jimbobmcflam @rorysutherland Traditional cars generate EMF from their alternators, ignition systems, and even the steel belts in rotating tires. It's all at safe levels.

@SharePickers @rorysutherland Design an electric car where I'm not sitting getting my nuts (and the rest of me) iradiated by EMFs and I will happily drive one.

I think @rorysutherland has a point of view on that worth listening to.

They've sold 175K of them in the first 4 months of this year. The reductions in price are because they get fined if 33% sold aren't ev. However if a small price reduction increases sales, it just a cost issue and this will continue to go down. It will be harder to sell second hand petrol and diesel in a few years time. It's only going one way.

@SharePickers the manufacturers cannot sell these elec models so have reduced the prices