TC Global Macro

Is this what Michael Burry is talking about? As Alfred E Neumann would say, "What Me Worry?".

We need statements like this in Canada. #cdnpoli

Class act in Buffalo!

Carney announces Canada’s first ever sovereign wealth fund with an initial endowment of $25-billion - The Globe and Mail … but where will the endowment come from? Borrowed? Shifted out of existing government assets? Printed? #cdneco #cdnpoli apple.news/AM8oZ7efkRkCM8…

Very sensible!

I watched @MarkJCarney’s “Forward Guidance” video yesterday. It was polished, well-produced - and ultimately unconvincing. Even more concerning was the uncritical amplification by parts of the media, airing a 10-minute political message in full as if it were neutral analysis. If you’ve been watching NHL games streamed on Sportsnet+ lately, you’ve likely seen the same theme repeated in high-production ads. The word of the day: “rupture.” It’s a neat piece of messaging. But it raises a bigger question: is this leadership - or marketing? Here’s where the narrative falls apart: 1. Fear isn’t leadership. Fear-stoking is a powerful way to manipulate people. Using words like “crisis” or phrases like “stakes could not be higher..” is classic fear-stoking. Framing our economic relationship with the U.S. as a “weakness” to be “corrected” may be politically convenient, but it ignores reality. The U.S. is our largest trading partner and a critical driver of our prosperity. That’s not changing anytime soon. Strong leaders manage that relationship - they don’t recast it as a liability to justify policy shifts and score political points. 2. The math doesn’t hold up. We’re told in the video that families will save “over $840” from the 1% tax cut to the lowest marginal personal tax rate. That number appears to double a theoretical maximum. The Parliamentary Budget Officer has suggested average savings are closer to ~$190 per person. That’s hardly transformative. Similarly, targeted GST tweaks on housing are unlikely to materially change affordability for most Canadians. 3. “Catalyze $1 trillion of investment” needs context. Ambitious soundbites are easy. Reality is harder. Over the past decade, more than $1 trillion in capital has quietly left Canada, the largest capital exodus in Canadian history. Before we celebrate new inflows, we should ask: why did that capital leave in the first place? 4. Canada needs real “Big Bang” tax reform - not boutique tweaks. If we’re serious about competitiveness, we need to fix the fundamentals: - Materially lower personal tax rates to remain competitive globally and reduce brain drain - Encourage reinvestment through smarter corporate taxation (Estonia offers a useful model) - Eliminate complex, low-impact credits that add cost without improving productivity 5. Execution matters more than messaging. Investors don’t deploy capital because of YouTube videos or ad campaigns during hockey games. They invest where there is stability, clarity, and a tax and regulatory system that rewards risk-taking and success. Canada has enormous advantages - resources, geography, talent. But those advantages don’t convert into prosperity without sound policy. We don’t need more messaging about how high the stakes are and fear-stoking. We need leadership that addresses capital flight, restores competitiveness, and focuses on execution over optics. That would be real forward guidance. youtu.be/uk2TZwkhi4E?si…

The 100 investors are not private companies that require an attractive tax and regulatory environment to invest. The investors Carney is inviting are sovereign wealth funds and foreign pension funds who are looking for guaranteed returns. #cdneco #cdnpoli cbc.ca/news/business/…

@terencecorcoran Also 19. Never recorded from radio to cassette.

19 of 20 for me. Never dialled up sn Internet.

@Gray_Mackenzie According to the IMF, “temporary fiscal measures in the form of subsidies, tax cuts, and price caps can help … [but] such measures are often regressive, fiscally costly, and politically difficult to roll back. Hence, discretionary fiscal support should typically be avoided”.

Mark Carney announced the Liberals will suspend the federal fuel excise tax on gas, diesel and aviation fuel starting on next Monday until Labour Day The PM says this will remove up to 10 cents per litre on gasoline and 4 cents per litre on diesel fuel. #cdnpoli

@AahanPrometheus 👍

@CarmichaelTed In this one, just gold. But it’s better to use DBC or something— this is just a popular allocation mix benchmark

Good afternoon. Say it back. Our BASIC Trend Program updated today. 100% free. Here’s a rundown of how it works. Because you shouldn’t pay for moving averages.

@AahanPrometheus That’s why I cut the overweight by half. Now my question is should I await the reaction to the ceasefire and reload? Not asking for advice. I think you’ve already provided it. Best!

@CarmichaelTed Crude mainly

Stay long energy

Velina’s on board!

@AahanPrometheus Thanks for that. Nat Gas? Henry Hub?

@CarmichaelTed We’re bullish on the energy commodities themselves, not the equity piece so much!

But they have a series for passenger vehicles and you will see that price rose 16.5% over the past 5 years compared with the actual 55% increase in the base price of an F150 truck. That’s only 1/3rd of the actual price increase. #cdnecon

If you want to compare this with the price of an F150 in the CPI, you’ll be frustrated to find that StatCan discontinued the price index for trucks in 2022. Why? Because they introduced used cars and trucks to the CPI and had to start a new series and they didn’t do one for trucks. #cdnecon

Here’s another example: Suppose you drive a Ford F150 pickup truck. Here’s a price comparison with 5 years ago: #cdnecon

Because of its reduced weight, the 40 to 50% rise in dry cleaning prices doesn’t get into the CPI. But if you need a shirt or a sweater dry cleaned, you experience the inflation. #cdnecon

Dry cleaning prices are no longer available from StatCan in the CPI. The index was terminated in 2021. Why? The lockdowns caused demand for dry cleaning to collapse and its weight in the consumer spending made it insignificant. Many dry cleaners went out of business. #cdnecon

Canadians that I know perceive inflation to be higher than the official CPI data suggests. I wonder why? Here is an example: the price of dry cleaning.