Carol Sciurus

Just enjoying a piece of shelled walnut #NewProfilePic

Most traders are reading the surface of $BABA wrong, and the structural setup underneath is one of the cleanest I've seen this year. A quick walk through what I'm seeing. Surface read: BABA missed Q4 earnings badly. EPS of $0.09 vs $0.84 expected. Stock should have collapsed. Instead it rallied 8% the next day. Then this week Trump flew to China with Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, and most of the US C-suite. The US approved Nvidia H200 chip sales to Alibaba. Beijing immediately blocked deliveries. China consumer is soft. Apple just cut iPhone 17 prices for the 618 Festival. Most traders look at this and see contradictions. Conflicting signals. "Geopolitical risk." They wait for clarity. The clarity is already there if you know where to look. When a stock misses earnings by 90% and the sell side raises price targets the next day — JPMorgan to $205, Mizuho to $195, Susquehanna to $185, Barclays to $195, Jefferies maintaining at $225 — the analysts who have full access to management aren't seeing what the headline says. They're seeing something else. That gap is the entire trade. The capex that depressed EPS is the same capex that's building irreplaceable AI infrastructure. T-Head's Zhenwu chip is already operating in 10,000-card clusters today. Alibaba Cloud's revenue acceleration is showing up underneath the EPS noise. Qwen 3.5 is benchmarking competitively with frontier Western models. CEO Eddie Wu has committed to $100B in external cloud and AI revenue over five years. The H200 stalemate that's spooking retail is actually accelerating BABA's strategic position. Every month Nvidia chips don't arrive is another month Huawei Ascend orders scale (Huawei targeting $12B in AI chip revenue this year, up from $7.5B last year) and another month T-Head's vertical integration moat deepens. Beijing has informally instructed Chinese tech companies to limit Nvidia hardware to overseas operations and prioritize domestic stack. That's not a problem for Alibaba. That's a tailwind dressed as a problem. The pattern under this isn't new. It's the same pattern as the 1980s US-Japan semiconductor war (Japanese tech rallied 280-340% during the restriction era before any formal resolution). It's the same pattern as the AMZN AWS buildout in 2014-2016, when bears called the capex reckless and the stock went from $400 to $1,000 in 18 months once monetization inflected. JPMorgan's $230 target prices BABA at 12x FY28 earnings — almost exactly where AMZN traded in 2015 before the AWS rerating. The technical setup confirms what the fundamental and geopolitical reads are saying. Technical pattern, not invalidated. Reset at the 200 DMA. Earnings miss absorbed and reversed with an 8% rally — the failed breakdown signature that historically marks the start of significant moves. There's a catalyst stack loading into the back half of the year that most retail isn't tracking. Alibaba Cloud has major announcements scheduled in Hangzhou next week. 618 Festival on June 18 reads the China consumer. Q1 FY27 earnings in August will be the first quarter where the capex monetization shows up cleanly. Apsara Conference in September is BABA's annual flagship event and historically produces major Qwen and T-Head announcements. T-Head's IPO progression is loading in the background. Singles Day in November. Each one of these is a potential rerating catalyst. The setup is rare because Alibaba wins regardless of which way most of the major variables resolve. If Nvidia chips eventually flow, Cloud capacity scales. If they don't, vertical integration deepens. If Trump escalates, Beijing rewards domestic champions. If Trump de-escalates, China tech relief rally lifts everything. If consumer stays soft, the AI capex story still drives the multiple. If consumer recovers, both engines fire. Most stocks lose in at least one branch of the decision tree. This one doesn't have a losing branch. The market is pricing meaningful downside risk on a stock where the structural downside risk is far smaller than the consensus assumes. That mispricing is the opportunity. None of the above came from a chart-watching session or a headline scan. It came from a specific process I run on every major situation that crosses my desk. Most traders don't have one — they react to the surface and get whipsawed by whoever is loudest. The traders who compound have a process that lets them see the structure under the noise. I work one-on-one with a small number of coaching clients per quarter who want to build that kind of process. If the way I read this situation resonates with the way you want to read markets, the link is in my bio. None of this is investment advice. It's analysis. What you do with it is your call.

@zapatas_mom As a parent I don’t care when people choose to be childfree. This couple who treats traveling as conspicuous consumption is simply cringey and no, I’m not jealous. I did my share of traveling in my 20s before I had kids but traveling was never my personality. “Mom” is though 😁

I am a childless person who actually really likes and tolerates children well (probably for being a teacher for so long), but all the parents in the comments and QTs sound genuinely bitter and jealous. If your life is fuller with kids, you don’t generally get mad at childless people have their own thing going on.. right ? So weird.

@Yoda4ever Tiger says “I get 3 meals a day here but no companionship. You’re my friend now.”

In 2015, a goat was thrown into a tiger’s enclosure as his weekly live feed only to become his friend..🐅🐾🐐🥺❤️

@uncledoomer Used to love dogs (but didn’t have one when I got pregnant). Now I view dogs as unpredictable and potential threats to my toddler and it’s become difficult to like them the way I used to.

interesting new concept to come out of the tiktok pop psych mom-o-sphere: "postpartum pet aversion" - in other words, woman dotes on furbaby, becomes pregnant, has baby, suddenly overnight becomes annoyed and suspicious of family dog. what could be the cause of this phenomenon?

Si no tienes hijos jamás vas a experimentar lo que se siente que tu identidad se agrande. Jamás vas a saber lo que se siente que tus metas, tus gustos, tus libertades, tus comodidades, tus silencios y tus planes pasen a segundo plano sin que se sienta como una pérdida. Jamás vas a entender lo que significa saber que otra persona asocie contigo la idea de seguridad, fuerza, hogar, protección y amor. Jamás vas a saber lo que se siente que te busquen cuando el mundo se les haga demasiado grande. Ni vas a entender lo firmes y fuertes que se vuelven tus brazos cuando otra persona se siente completamente a salvo contigo. Hay partes del alma que no se desbloquean con libertad, sino con responsabilidad. Hay que llenar el mundo de niños. Ten más hijos.

Carl Jung had a strange method for changing your life from the inside out. Not affirmations. Not “manifesting.” Practice these 4 steps for 10 days, and notice what happens to your anxiety: 🪡 1. What you refuse to imagine controls your life from the shadows.

@BioBite_ Sweet potatoes cooked in air fryer lined with teflon

World healthiest meal.

@ChristianHeiens Why’s your profile full of anime pics tho

At an ice cream shop in the middle of rural central Virginia, and everyone around me is wearing veils and speaking Hindi. I’m so tired of this man.

The literal #1 most suicidal belief you can have is that you’re an introvert/socially anxious/don’t like people. I was this guy until around 22. Thought I was better than everyone else and actively chose not to be social. Life completely changed when I started interacting with random people and just trying to make them laugh. Opportunities opened up, made relationships with people I never thought possible. Everything was just less dull and boring. Every day was fun for no reason. You cannot be a lone wolf. It’s a mental illness. Life is meaningless without people.

And this is why you pay $30,000 a year for a Bloomberg terminal. Founder of the Bloomberg Terminal explaining here the functions. The most elite information and analytical tools are still nowhere near the hands of the everyday public.

@BullandBaird 10. I prefer flats and that one looks the juiciest.

Which wing are you taking first? I’m on 7

@PulseProveX @mrwtffacts They could make a movie out of this.

@mrwtffacts This is what he wrote

In 2020, Nebraska school teacher James Fairbanks noticed his neighbor constantly hanging around and watching kids play from his driveway. Suspicious, Fairbanks decided to check the registered sex offender list. His suspicions were justified: Mattieo Condoluci, 64, twice convicted of child molestation. Fairbanks grabbed a gun, drove to his house, knocked on the door, and shot him seven times when he answered. He then emailed local media and confessed to everything, explaining he acted to prevent further offences. Astonishingly, at sentencing, Condoluci’s very own daughter stood up and defended Fairbanks, saying her father had abused her too and the system had failed for years. Despite this, in 2021, Fairbanks, who had no previous convictions, was sentenced to 40–70 years for second-degree murder with no parole until 2040.

@AbakpaJob Yes. I was depressed and then I traveled to an Asian city which required me to leave the hotel every single day for food and walk/take public transportation. Suddenly I didn’t feel depressed anymore. I was too busy.

It took me 13 years to realize that the only cure to depression is just leaving the house at every single possible opportunity no matter how badly you don't want to.

How to upgrade your self-image in 1 day: Close your eyes. Become aware of the sensations in your body. Focus on how it feels to breathe slower. Do this as you slowly relax every muscle in your body. Head to toe. Within five minutes you'll notice a tingling sensation in your palms while you relax. Once that sensation arrives, you will be able to visually go within yourself to create permanent changes in the subconscious: transforming who you believe yourself to be. Now for the next few minutes, allow yourself to mentally recall a time where you won. The first time you felt truly loved. A risk you took that paid off. The first time you realized you were capable of more than you thought. Experience the scene fully. You might notice warm feelings in your chest as you replay these memories. This is the good part. Fly to the future and imagine the greatest version of you. Notice how ASSERTIVE they stand. Notice how they appear. Sense their confidence. They've overcome the things that keep you up at night. They've built what you've only imagined. They live life knowing exactly who they are. Allow the image to become bigger, brighter... Time will slow as your subconscious examines every detail. Now imagine how it would feel if this was you right now. Picture yourself in their shoes. Can you feel it? Linger there for five minutes. You find yourself softly smiling knowing this is the happiest and most relaxed you have felt in a long time. Lie there for a while. Enjoy this moment. Know that you can return here whenever you wish, exactly to this place, where you feel exactly as you do now. All you have to do is close your eyes and imagine yourself back here. You feel rejuvenated by that thought. Open your eyes and interact with the world from this state. Believe it or not this is what you are eventually supposed to feel every single day. You will begin to notice that all the things you want to be are already within. Few take the time to practice this. Do this daily and you begin to rewire your mind. Change your beliefs. Think, act, and become the person you've seen glimpses of throughout your life. This is Self-Hypnosis. This is Psycho-Cybernetics. This is how you do it. I've released a full PDF 8 week workbook including 20+ exercises on how to do this on my substack. (Link is in tweet below) —Cogito Ergo Sum

Mi compañero de trabajo tiene 45 años y ha pasado por: 2 matrimonios Ha perdido a sus padres Problemas serios de salud Bancarrota Le pregunté qué lo hace seguir adelante, su respuesta me hizo olvidar mis propios problemas:

@Rainmaker1973 And they say boiling them live is torture.

Seagulls know that if they drop crustaceans from above many times, the food will come out.

People raised by emotionally mature parents, what's 1 phrase your parents used that you want other parents to know?

@chilltechbruh @jakozloski As a woman who have had many female friends throughout my life, I’ve heard the same doubts about dating older men from women in their 20s-40s. “Looking younger” can get your foot in the door but you won’t be their preference so you have to really shine to keep them.

@CarolSciurus @jakozloski I haven't found that the case. The age thing rarely comes up to be the main issue. It alot of cases it tends to be more attractive because of new perspective you bring. Regardless you need to be a good quality man no matter what age you are.

Hard truth from 123,696 women's age preferences on Keeper. To be in a 23-year-old's median ideal range, you want to be under 28. A 27-year-old's median ideal range, under 35. A 30-year-old's, under 38. Past those ages you're an outlier in her range, not her ideal. The "find a younger wife" plan has a deadline for most people.

@MarioNawfal Many young Asians are foodies so not surprised. I didn’t even know dim sum was thought of something that older people did. I’ve been going to dim sum regularly from childhood to adulthood

🇭🇰 1920s Hong Kong dim sum teahouse just threw a full-on DIM SUM RAVE 300 Gen Z kids raging under a disco ball, smashing shrimp dumplings & siu mai while the DJ drops Cantonese electronic beats. This is unhinged in the best way possible Source: Reuters

@Yoda4ever Aww I’d share my pizza with the iguana anytime.

A couple eating pizza on the street when an iguana shows up, asks for a slice, and leaves happily..🐾😅