Barry Gilbert

Six months into 2026, Carson's inflationary-growth thesis is playing out. The labor market turned a corner, the AI wave got bigger, and inflation is still hot. @sonusvarghese on why we're still riding the wave, and how we're guarding against a wipeout👇 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

This streak could end today. Eight 1% gains in a row without a 1% decline, longest in nearly 10 years. Bottom line? A day like today was more than due.

Looks like the bond market is reminding everyone that the Strait remains closed* 2y yields: 4.05 10y: 4.54 30y: 5.09 * And China isn’t going to do anything to help open it up

My former colleague, the incredibly talented Joey Guidry created this prescient graphic in 2017. From replies to @McClellanOsc , sounds like Warsh is about 6’1. Could this be a case where correlation actually does imply causation?

The 10-year yield has climbed nearly 0.50% since the Middle East conflict began, closing at 4.47%. @gilbert3142 updates Carson's bond view: it's time to opportunistically rotate cash into bonds, but diversify your diversifiers👇 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Yields are on the move. The day before US-Iran hostilities began, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.96%, barely above its multi-year low. It's now at 4.47%, the highest since July 2025. Carson's updated bond view: 🧵 (1/4)

Inflation hot across the board 😬 Headline: +0.6% m/m (8% annualized) Last 3M: +7.3% But not just an energy or tariff problem 👇 Core: +0.4% m/m (4.6%) 3M: +3.2% Services ex housing: +0.45% m/m (5.5%) 3M: +4.0% CPI Computer Software 3M: +83% 🔥 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick

It has been a long time since the S&P 500 fell 1%. In fact, it has made eight 1% gains in a row without one. Only 13 other times have we seen a streak like this and here's what happened next those times. @FrankCappelleri has been all over this one.

The S&P 500 is up six weeks in row and >10% during the win streak. This is only the 10th time that has ever happened (since 1950) and it was lower a year later only once (80 yrs ago), with an avg return of 17.1% (about 2x the avg year return). Another clue favoring the bulls.

Another record close for the S&P 500 😎 Stable Jobs + Hot Inflation + No Hikes = Bullish Equities New blog 👇 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Since the crisis started (2/27) 👇 S&P 500: +7.6% $XLE: -0.4% 50/50 S&P500/XLE: +3.6% But if you “stacked” managed futures on top of S&P 500 $RSST: +7.6% $CTAP: +8.7% Full disclosure: we use both @RyanDetrick @CarsonResearch

Stocks had a strong April. AI spending is still building. GDP looks softer, and inflation remains sticky. This week’s Market Commentary looks at how those pieces fit together. bit.ly/42yHftr

AI hardware and software investment is a larger part of our economy now than it was during the dot-com peak.

The S&P 500 in April gained 10.4%. 13 other months gained at least 10%. Yes, 1987 is in here, but the majority of the other times it is perfectly normal to see much better than average future returns out a year after a huge month like we just saw.

You're about to hear "Sell in May and go away" approximately 1,000 times this week. @RyanDetrick looked at the data. Read the latest from the Carson Investment Research Team: carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Nine of the past 10 years, stocks were higher during the "Sell in May" period. The average return over those 10 years? 6.9%. The worst "Sell in May" year this decade was 2022 at -6.3%. Every other year was green. The axiom is working less and less.

Yes, May–October is historically the weakest six-month stretch of the year. Average return of 2.1%, higher only 65.8% of the time. The data is real. But "weakest" doesn't mean "negative." And lately, it's been anything but weak. 🧵

Q1 Real GDP growth @ 2.0% (below trend) Final sales +2.8% - Govt re-opening - Huge AI-related investment, but a lot of this is imported (not "domestic product") What matters for stocks is nominal GDP growth. That's hot 🔥 Q1: +5.6% 12M: +6.0% @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick

23 of the past 25 times the S&P 500 was up >5% YTD going into May saw the rest of the year higher. This is another clue this bull market likely has a few more tricks up his sleeves in 2026.

PCE inflation is rising & it's not just energy (or tariffs) 🤦‍♂️ Headline 1M: 8.3% annualized 3M: 5.6% 12M: 3.5% Core 1M: 3.6% 3M: 4.4% 12M: 3.2% Core components with 3%+ inflation expanding 😬 Dec '19: 24% Jun '22: 72% Mar '25: 41% Mar '26: 57% @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick