@SimonMahan I miss the good old days, when we always knew what would happen 5 years in advance
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Case Green
2.5K posts
Case Green
@CaseGreen4
“Green Man was good. It got me through some hard times”
Katılım Eylül 2020
448 Takip Edilen539 Takipçiler
There was just a stunning discussion at MISO yesterday, "Why should we make decisions when we're not even sure of the next 5 years?" All models are wrong, but some are useful. And we make 30-50 yr decisions all the time in the electric industry, shouldn't those be informed?
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@Dan_Canoeth everyone single one of them asking for months in advance “will you be at RE+?”
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@CaseGreen4 conscientiously objected attending this year.
ridiculous to expect every aspect of the supply chain + every tangentially related advisory firm + OEMs + lawyers + financiers + developers + utilities + offtakers + dudes pitching their startups competing for the same space.
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no need for the subterfuge and “back doors” into our infrastructure. you could probably task rabbit the entire job for $1,000
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the funny thing about the grid-protection-from-foreign-adversaries discourse is that you could pay 15 back woods gun nuts to shoot a few select MPTs and cause absolute mayhem
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@cody_a_hill son of a bitch you’re saying it was an option to ignore all of this and just spend time with my children
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@xiaowang1984 @SlBrandin @duncancampbell does it make a difference if it’s a higher PPA price vs. lower PPA price + pass through of system upgrades on a separate line of the bill? in theory load is paying the same right? maybe there’s a system planning dynamic I’m missing here
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@SlBrandin @duncancampbell Of course load always pays but it would be good to see network upgrades caused to accommodate generators reflected in the PPA price of the generators!
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While the sit rep here isnt good for energy production, it could have a positive impact on system topology by reducing storage co-location with renewable gen
Siting storage co-located with production is grossly inefficient and was largely guided by antiquated ITC policies
Shanu Mathew@ShanuMathew93
BESS tax credits (ITC & 45Y) remain through 2033, but wind/solar face 2027 deadline. Since ~50% of US BESS projects are paired with renewables, reduced wind/solar installations will also cut BESS deployments despite intact incentives @RhoMoIola @rhomotion
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this is an under appreciated dynamic of energy policy and power market structure. all roads lead to the load meter - some of them just take the long way around.
Sam@SlBrandin
@xiaowang1984 @duncancampbell I hate to break it to you but load always pays. It’s most efficient for it to be direct so consumers have maximum ability to manage those costs as they see fit
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@SolarInMASS gotcha - most carbon pricing frameworks assume an escalation in the marginal cost of new emissions - are you suggesting something different?
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@SolarInMASS I’m dense, but this doesn’t make sense to me. you’re saying an aging fossil fleet will become less reliable over time?
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@ShanuMathew93 @forrest_f_ $90-$100 is the going rate for solar in PJM-DOM right now….
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Great summary post from @forrest_f_
Power grid needs more gas plants for data center growth, but developers won't build them due to volatile gas prices, uncertain capacity markets, and 5+ year timelines. Hyperscalers probably need to pay $90-100/MWh PPAs to get plants done. Even at this high price, they may do so to not be responsible for societal pushback if rising power prices or shortages get pinned on them.
Forrest@forrest_f_
Interesting discussion re: hyperscalers and CCGTs. To bring it full circle: New-build CCGTs need long-term fixed power pricing. But, nobody wants to take long-term gas price risk. Hyperscalers won't write heat rate call options; would write PPAs. PPAs don't fix CCGTs gas risk.
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@jjsunandsnow @ShanuMathew93 this is the least flawed way of approaching the problem, but it’s a political loser
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@CaseGreen4 @ShanuMathew93 Why not just price carbon then properly and let the generation mix build as it sees fit? Cap and trade is not for everyone so why not at least an arbitrary $/t that rises slowly over time? Not perfect but at least it’s level playing field for generation types (vs ITC and PTC)
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if you follow the line of reasoning for most of the discourse on both sides of this debate, you end up back at the question of how you should price carbon emissions, and if the cost is high enough to justify the challenging aspects of deploying lots of intermittent resources
Tyler Norris@tylerhnorris
“If solar and wind are the most affordable and fastest to build resources, why do they need tax credits?” A reporter asked me this fair question yesterday. Here's the steelman case, in my view: 1) Market failure correction: Social value of solar and wind (e.g. reduced fuel price volatility, CO2 emissions, air pollution) exceeds private market value; tax credits help internalize these public benefits 2) Offsetting non-price barriers: Solar and wind face significant non-price barriers (e.g. permitting delays, interconnection challenges, transmission constraints) that favor incumbent resources; tax credits help counterbalance 3) Energy security: Solar and wind don’t rely on globally traded fuels, providing insulation from potential actions of adversarial governments while enabling lower-cost fuel export to allies 4) Supporting rapid load growth: With electricity demand rising quickly, tax credits help scale up new generation faster and mitigate backsliding into higher-emission resources 5) Accelerating deployment: Even in regions where solar and wind are cost-competitive, the pace of market-driven adoption may not align with public objectives; tax incentives help close the gap 6) Offsetting tariff impacts: Tariffs have raised costs of a variety of input materials and grid equipment; tax credits help offset these added burdens and keep projects economically viable 7) Addressing uneven economics: While solar and wind are the most affordable new energy sources in many markets, this isn’t universally true, especially in regions with weaker RE resources 8) Consistent w/ historical precedent: Nearly all major energy sources in US history have received federal subsidies; supporting renewables continues that tradition in service of modern priorities
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@agelston lol that probably explains why so many of his tweets are appearing in my timeline
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but carbon pricing is off the table politically, so we’ve inserted subsidies and a whole new language surrounding pros/cons of renewables and IMO most of it is a giant smoke screen to avoid mentioning GW or carbon
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it’s not honestly about whether solar/wind are cheapest to deploy. in some spots of the country they are. in other parts of the country you need big subsidies (higher implied price on carbon)
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