Cave Cowboy
661 posts
Cave Cowboy
@Cave__Cowboy
Navigating markets, observing global chaos, and dodging X’s sketchy algos.
Katılım Nisan 2026
50 Takip Edilen88 Takipçiler
Earnings have been growing so strongly that it’s hard to call this a bubble. Bubbles are about excessive valuations and a lack of earnings growth. For now we don’t have either, which is why I am not yet alarmed about the verticality of this market. It appears to be a boom. Case in point, the Mag 7 below remains in the bottom half of their earnings/valuation channel. No excess here.
One possible fly in the ointment is that much of the capex fueling the AI boom is happening at the expense of share buybacks (as cash gets depleted). We can see that below. Since April of 2025 dividends and buybacks have flatlined while capex and earnings have stayed on trend.
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@ThierryBorgeat Were those first two examples rebounds following strong earnings?
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A 20% gain in the S&P 500 tech sector in four weeks has happened only three times in 100 years.
1929. 2000. 2026.
The first two times ended badly.
The third just happened.
The market is a great teacher. It just charges very high tuition for the same lesson.
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@CGasparino Re-electing AOC told us everything about NYC voters.
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NYC voters are really dumb and so are the people who ran against Mamdani. Why didn't they come up with this stuff during the campaign? Or maybe they did and they were too timid to release it
Olivia Reingold@Olivia_Reingold
The reporting on Duwaji's Tumblr comes from @LevineJonathan—read his full report here: freebeacon.com/democrats/zohr…
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@amitisinvesting Tend to agree in the shorter run but I suspect MSFT is the better long-term opportunity.
META isn’t necessary and Zuck doesn’t appear to be the best allocator of capital. Social media preferences can change.
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So Ackman buys Microsoft…
I know the picks and shovels plays of the AI buildout are getting all the attention, but it does feel like you could open a brokerage account…
Buy $META and $MSFT…
And just not look at it for the next few years and be fine.
These companies are trading at historic discounts due to “Meta cannot do anything other than Ads” and “Microsoft is a software play so software should go down.”
They will not provide the same short term alpha but these are two of the greatest companies on the planet…doesn’t feel that scary taking a shot on them here.
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@kernow_bull @biancoresearch It won’t go anywhere but it would really thwart his ability to implement policy and it’s a huge headache. I think he really wants to hang on to the house.
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@Cave__Cowboy @biancoresearch Yea it’s a fair point, tho does that matter to him? Hes been Teflon forever, assume that kinda stuff doesn’t worry him.
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Dear Kevin Warsh
Later today, you will be sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Congratulations.
You got the job by convincing the President you share his vision that the Fed needs to cut rates.
The problem is that today, on your first day as Chairman, the market is pricing in a 64% probability that rates will HIKE before the end of the year.
Good luck!
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@kernow_bull @biancoresearch Not a chance. He knows impeachment proceedings are on deck if Dems win.
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@Cave__Cowboy @biancoresearch He tools his eyes off the mid terms some time ago
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@biancoresearch Anyone’s guess. He will want gas prices receding and the market doing well before the mid-terms.
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@rocknrollofall Lay It Down is awesome.
Winds of March
Something To Hide
Feeling That Way / Anytime on Captured
Ask The Lonely
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What's your favourite song from Journey, not counting Don't Stop Believin'?
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@mikefreemanNFL Started strong and just fizzled, weak ending. Great first season.
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Rewatching Ozark
Vastly underrated television villain
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@Sassafrass_84 Then suggest a different method of paying for local services. Cops aren’t free.
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You know what grinds my gears?!
The fact that you can own land, build a house, and pay off your loan, but you can lose it all to property taxes.
It's infuriating and should be illegal.
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I feel terrible for some of these Uber drivers. This is why you can't get an Uber in hood. You get people that act like this and put this Uber driver though all this stress and drama.
Credit to this Uber driver for not backing down. No surprise that immediately the threat of harm or car jacking comes into play. But the Uber driver was sharp enough to remind him that all of his personal information has already been shared with Uber when he opened his account. Getting that info to the police would be a snap.
Sure mad the thug think twice about doing anything.
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@WallStreetMav A win for all drivers if we get unqualified immigrants off the road.
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This is wonderful for American citizen truck drivers.
Truck driving used to be a high paid profession where road warriors could make $100,000+ per year even back in the 1990s
Then the 3rd world low IQ CDL truck drivers flooded the USA and ruined it.
SCOTUS Wire@scotus_wire
🚨 The Supreme Court unanimously ruled that federal law does not shield freight brokers from state negligence lawsuits when they hire unsafe trucking companies.
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@ForgiatoBlow47 Ideally, yeah, absolutely.
In reality, blacks have earned distrust.
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SKIN COLOR DOESN'T MEAN SHIT
YOU'RE EITHER A GOOD PERSON, OR A PIECE OF SHIT END OF STORY
DO YOU AGREE?
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Lebanon was living in peace and tranquility in 1975.
Then the Palestinians started a war, massacred the Christians, and ruined everything.
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@Brick_Suit This is a great move. Disincent hiring unqualified drivers.
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I'm not a trucking expert, nor a lawyer, but I'm pretty sure this decision just pulled the rug out from under companies that hire unsafe foreign big rig drivers
Freight brokers (the deep pockets) are not shielded from liability if they hire unsafe companies
Deport all illegals
SCOTUS Wire@scotus_wire
🚨 The Supreme Court unanimously ruled that federal law does not shield freight brokers from state negligence lawsuits when they hire unsafe trucking companies.
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@SaltyGoat17 Our dogs don’t bitch about bacon, wear suicide vests, marry nine year-olds, or stone women for not covering their head.
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@fundstrat Extinction for unqualified, illegal drivers. Good.
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@MargoinWNC Come on, everyone knows NC loves its criminals.
Nobody loves criminals more than @CLTMayor Vi Lyles.
@NC_Governor loves them too.
Criminals > Taxpayers in NC
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$20k bond for killing a child. Charlotte doesn't care about your children, they're more concerned the killer can afford to get out.
This is a reflection of Roy Cooper, Josh Stein, Anita Earls and Jeff Jackson democrat policies.
Democrats kill your children and let the killers out cheap. Fact
War Correspondent@warDaniel47
🚨 JUST IN: Outrage ERUPTS after a judge lets out Charlotte NC man who KILLED an 8YO child on her bike, with $20K bond This is insane THIS HAS TO STOP!
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