// cdaleb

If bitcoin doesn’t go to zero, it’s going to $1 million at some point.

After hyping “massive fraud” for a month, Nick came up empty — so he posted a video about a Republican who committed voter fraud, got caught, and was prosecuted. Slow Shirley is welcome to extend his visit and enroll in California’s free community college. He clearly needs it.

What's going on? 50T Team, It's obviously been a rough few days, few weeks, and few months for our portfolio of blockchain/crypto businesses. I had always expected extended consolidation around 100k BTC and so was expecting a traditional 35% pullback from the highs. This current drawdown however is more than I was expecting and comes as a result of many different variables all hitting at once as they normally do during extended bear phases. Capital fracturing, as I call it, has been a main driver. Simply put, capital today has too many options and too many distractions. Certainly, within the digital asset ecosystem there are too many initiatives/ventures/businesses with the result being that too much good capital is being thrown at weak projects. Also, the pull for capital to be invested in AI, space, robotics, energy, etc. must come from somewhere and, as we have seen, it has come from crypto and traditional tech/SaaS etc. Concurrently, as a result of geopolitics, gold has been rallying for 2yrs with the recent blowup to 5k pulling trillions of dollars away from the digital gold narrative that supported BTC for the past 5-10yrs. On top of that, we now have a Manhattan-project style command US economy that revolves around nearly unlimited capital being put into actual infrastructure build to support the energy needs to power AI at a scale and a degree that has not been required before. Moreover, this is all happening at light speed and at a pace that is becoming difficult for humans to respond. Overlayed on this backdrop is the choice of a new Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh who is excellent and in conjunction with Bessent will act as the right stewards for monetary and fiscal policy going forward. Yes, Powell has been the least competent Chairman of my lifetime, but he is definitely not a criminal and Trump's overt attack of his moral stature was unnecessary and also helped drive the last $1000 dollars of the gold rally. Clearly, if one looks just at yesterday's employment data (and there is a ton more underlying weak data), the jobs situation for the bottom 80% of the population, however you measure it, is not good and has not been good for a while. Powell's inability to see the fraying and his hesitance to accommodate given what is a dire jobs situation is deeply unfortunate but will be rectified with new leadership. The failure of the current Fed, of course, has led to a much tighter liquidity position than anticipated and we are now suffering the result of such intransigence. Indeed, one can feel the absence and literal destruction of liquidity now playing out. The hint that AI will displace other economic entities and activities has led to massive drops across the software sector, the one day $10 trillion loss in gold and silver from their highs, the several trillion dollar collapse in crypto/ blockchain projects and businesses, the massive illiquidity in commercial real estate across the US, not to mention the potential destruction of businesses and liquidity held in the PE sector that AI may now have rendered frozen and/or impaired are just a few signs that liquidity is no longer plentiful and must be increased. Wholesale selling of Blackstone, Apollo stock as well as the many private investing entities investing also are feeling the stress though not so publicly. Further, the demands for capital for giant upcoming potential IPOs, SpaceX etc. are like nothing we have seen before. That capital must come from somewhere and usually when capital is plentiful and sufficient the markets can absorb such needs. At this time it appears the demands on capital markets are too great given the existing liquidity availability and we will start to see this liquidity destruction impact the underlying economy to a greater degree unless some action is taken by traditional policymakers (i.e. rate cuts to act as an offsetting mechanism for the capital needs required for the numerous innovations that are being delivered today). A lower USD would also be helpful. As measured by the Fed trade weighted dollar we are near the highest levels ever. Another 10-20% drop in this measure would be a helpful monetary offset. Many entities in the old world of traditional business/banking/commercial real estate will unlikely be able to keep up with current rate of innovation and will suffer. Much employment sits in traditional areas. Businesses and individuals both need offsets. We have many smart policymakers and levers to offset the ongoing liquidity destruction. There are many answers. Just one. Imagine if individual's monthly mortgage payments were cut in half overnight. I'm sure that would do a lot to help buffer the radical changes impacting individual's personal liquidity situation and the perceptions about their future liquidity position. If traditional banks were to begin paying savers the current market rate rather than 0, that would be another easy way for individuals to feel an offset. Unfortunately, we have always had market turbulence when a new Fed chairman takes over. We saw it with the handoffs to Greenspan, to Bernanke, to Yellen and Powell and now unfortunately to Warsh, even though it is unwarranted. Understandably, the frenetic pace of action coming out of the White House, while a net positive in my view, also does damage to the placidity and confidence that markets require to function. So, while I am as optimistic as ever on the next few years growth prospects and America's leadership of the world economy, clearly, at the moment the capital needs to drive that growth are insufficient and are driving this current bout of liquidation, risk aversion and capital destruction. Another few months of such action will begin to impair those growth prospects. Hopefully markets will soon settle and focus on just how bountiful is our medium and long term future. Dan T

Purposefully turning off the halftime show Let’s rally together and show big corporations they can’t just do whatever they want without consequences (which equals viewership for them) You are their benefit. Realize you have power. Turn off this halftime. A fake American citizen performing who publicly hates America. I cannot support that.