Election Watcher

BC election I'd say: - NDP 45-50, CON ~45 based on all polls (see map). - NDP ~50, CON ~40 based on online polls. - CON just shy of 50, NDP 40-45 based on IVR polls. GRN probably 1-2 (0 or 3 wouldn't be shocking). (I'm not accounting for BCU independents or most riding polls.)

Le Québec se classerait à la 5e place des pays les plus heureux au monde. Une des raisons évoquées serait la forte cohésion sociale et le sens du collectif qui serait + élevé ici, à l'instar des pays scandinaves. À noter la chute marquée des pays anglophones ces dernières années.

Quebec, on the other hand, has near-Scandinavian levels of happiness. Perhaps not coincidentally, it doesn't have insane housing prices and escaped the worst of Anglosphere wokeness and populist backlash.

It’s time to break the glass and fight decline.

WSJ: Arab governments were furious about Israel’s attack and the U.S. failure to head it off, officials said. They had aggressively lobbied the Trump administration to stop U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and now feel a target has been put on their backs, they said… America’s Arab allies are now fuming that they don’t seem to have any influence with the Trump administration despite heavy investments of time and money.

Contrary to Trump’s statements, senior Israeli and U.S. officials said that the United States had prior knowledge of the Israeli strike and even approved it in an attempt to pressure Iran. After the Iranians retaliated against Qatar’s gas fields, Trump is now changing course

In y/y terms, population growth assumed in the LFS has been consistently 2 quarters behind the official data. LFS population growth has slowed, and will continue to slow sharply. Given the monthly volatility, expect lots more negative monthly prints like Feb! 4/4

Minorities are more responsive, which can be a good thing. But minorities are also fiscally reckless, and I don't think we can afford that for much longer. Need some Chrétien or Harper 2011-15 style fiscal discipline.