Cedars Hill Macro

you have to go back 8yrs to 90th percentile VCs funds before investors are seeing positive cash returns maybe we made it too hard to IPO maybe we made it too easy to do a series Q

Fwiw and it's irrelevant for now. Dampedspring was looking to go long. Two's , Thirties, Gold, and SPX into what was the developing washout pre taco. NOT Because we expected a Taco as everyone on the planet expected a taco but for other reasons. Given the price action today. We are LOWERING the levels we would buy all assets NOT chasing current levels.

$GLD failed upside breakout opens door for a retest of $418a

Unsurprising: JPM just pulled the Qualtrics deal. $5.3B in debt that’s hung Existing loan trading at 86 cents. Was par in February. Banks committed to the financing in October. Software credit is now too toxic for the syndicated market.

Alls I'm saying about credit trading for alpha is this. Trading credit for alpha most of the time is really really stupid (except single names). Credit doesn't move most of the time. Most institutions just own credit risk to collect risk premium Trading credit for alpha some of the time is extremely smart. BUT never buy during the widening. Wait for the massive panic and forced selling. That isn't today. I've been a credit trader since 1988. The silo always defends during a drawdown and doubles and triples down. Trust me I've done this a few times in my life. Don't be those guys. You don't have a chance. Buy when they are forced out.

Thinking that agents will make life “easier” is analogous to imagining that hiring a hundred employees will reduce your cognitive load. Ask any founder how well that works. 😂