Cerberus

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Cerberus

@CerberusFM

| Market Analysis | Fundamental/Technical | History

Katılım Nisan 2023
338 Takip Edilen71 Takipçiler
Richard Byworth ∞/21M
Richard Byworth ∞/21M@RichardByworth·
Sat with a family office this afternoon. Just sold 25% of their Micron ($MU) and put it into $STRC at market. Signs that the rotation begins soon
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AA ⚡️
AA ⚡️@AAStack·
I’ve listened to at least seven Bitcoin/MSTR Spaces this week. One thing became obvious. Most of the strongest bull arguments are backed by math, SEC filings, capital markets, and the company’s actual disclosures. Many of the bear arguments, on the other hand, seem to rely on feelings, personalities, and whatever the current price action happens to be. “I don’t like Saylor.” “It feels wrong.” “This can’t last.” That’s not analysis. If you believe the strategy fails, show me the math. Show me where the capital structure breaks. Show me the flaw in the numbers. Narratives change. Math doesn’t.
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Cerberus
Cerberus@CerberusFM·
@ZynxBTC should it have ever dropped below 80 or below 75?????
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Zynx
Zynx@ZynxBTC·
$STRC is trading below $80 for the first time ever. Still betting on it returning to par. >Bi-monthly dividends begin from July. >Yield will increase by 50 bps. >Effective yield = 14.4%. >Return to par = ~25% in capital gains. Yet again, people are panicking for no reason.
Zynx tweet media
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Zynx
Zynx@ZynxBTC·
This is insane. Strategy's most junior preferred equity $STRD is now paying an effective yield of 18%. If you want fixed-income and believe the company will remain solvent then this is a wonderful opportunity. Pretty incredible.
Zynx tweet media
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Chris Millas
Chris Millas@ChrisMMillas·
If you actually take a step back and look at the criticism around $STRC objectively, it genuinely looks absurd for two reasons: 1. $STRC is not even a year old. 2. $STRC has raised over $10B worth of capital 11 months, which by any reasonable standard is extremely successful. Financial products take years to build trust and a meaningful track record. The concept of Digital Credit has literally only just emerged.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
Selling $1B of MSTR to buy back STRC here is an interesting thought experiment. 490,628 BTC × $62,294 = $30.56B of current CEBE NAV. Current CEBE mNAV: $39.34B / $30.56B = 1.29x STRC at $84.84, with $10.4895B notional and $8.899B market cap. So $1B of open-market buyback at $84.84 retires: $1.0B / 0.8484 = $1.179B of STRC liquidation preference Selling $1B of MSTR at $110.42 issues: $1.0B / $110.42 = 9.06M new shares New share count: 356.3M + 9.06M = 365.3M shares New senior claims: $22.19B - $1.179B = $21.01B New senior claims in BTC: $21.01B / $62,294 = 337,292 BTC New Common Equity BTC: 846,842 - 337,292 = 509,550 BTC New CEBE per share: 509,550 BTC / 365.3M shares = 139,476 sats/share Each $1 of MSTR issued only gives away about $0.78 of CEBE NAV because common trades at 1.29x CEBE mNAV, while each $1 spent buying STRC retires $1.179 of senior claim. That spread is absurdly favorable. Also, at the current 11.5% STRC dividend, retiring $1.179B of STRC saves $135.5M/year or $11.3M/month. One caveat: raw BTC per share would fall because BTC holdings stay flat while common shares increase. But CEBE per share rises because the preferred claim gets vaporized faster than the common dilution hits. That is exactly why CEBE is the cleaner metric here. Personally, while we're at this much of a CEBE premium to NAV... that'd be awesome if they just sold $1B of it to fund the USD reserve. It'd be CEBE accretive to shareholders and it'd restore confidence in STRC.
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MikeWMunz
MikeWMunz@mikewmunz·
$750 million volume on $STRC so far with 3 hours left. It’s possible it hits $1 Billion today Smart people with a longer time preference than 36 days are FEASTING right now If you’re buying STRC for that short of time, you’re doing it very wrong
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Zynx
Zynx@ZynxBTC·
There is no reason to panic over $STRC. Strategy has 7 months of USD dividend coverage and 31 years of Bitcoin coverage. Dividends will be paid as they have been every single month since launch. Unless you need immediate liquidity, there is nothing to worry about. I would suggest going forward that the company maintains 2 years worth of USD reserves at all times and to be more proactive with increasing the yield when it becomes obvious to do so.
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Rob HODLs
Rob HODLs@RHodls·
If everyone bought $STRC with cash, there would be little to no volatility. Once you realize that everyone uses margin and leverage…you realize volatility is inevitable. The play on $STRC is not the yield. It’s waiting for liquidation cascades, buying cheap and waiting for it to snap back to par once the unwind is over. We are averaging about 4 of these events a year at the moment….
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Peter Duan
Peter Duan@BTCBULLRIDER·
Just bought $STRC for the first time. The thesis is simple. STRC is MSTR's flagship product where they are deeply incentivized to push the face value of it back to par so they can ATM it to acquire cheap Bitcoin. At $92, I can expect a 8%-9% appreciation (back to par) plus getting paid the bi-weekly dividends that is currently yielding 11.5% annually.
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Cerberus
Cerberus@CerberusFM·
@QQQ275Soon couldnt you have given them at least 1 day to rise?
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Cerberus
Cerberus@CerberusFM·
@frenchiestocks Never ending feed of anon accounts pumping each others followers
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Bit Paine ⚡️
Bit Paine ⚡️@BitPaine·
@jonathanjisaac Happy that you’ve volunteered to adopt a downs baby to help people on this position not abort. Christ would be proud of you! You’ve done that, right?
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Bit Paine ⚡️
Bit Paine ⚡️@BitPaine·
I think it is an act of extraordinary compassion to raise a child with Down syndrome. It requires a lot from the parents, physically and emotionally. There are some people who are built for a life of selfless caregiving - of acceptance of endless suffering - and there are some who are not. But 99.9% of the people commenting on this post have 0 real life experience and are piling on this guy from a place of abject hypocrisy. They are being explicitly, vociferously un-Christian in their signaling of imagined virtue. Matthew 23: “[D]o not do what they do, for they do not practice what they preach. They tie up heavy, cumbersome loads and put them on other people’s shoulders, but they themselves are not willing to lift a finger to move them. … The greatest among you will be your servant. For those who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted.” It is possible to celebrate those who choose an act of extraordinary compassion without judging those who do not.
Jesse Ridgway@McJuggerNuggets

This week, my wife and I made the very difficult decision to terminate the pregnancy due to Trisomy 21. The choice was not made lightly. We really appreciate all of the personal stories that you guys shared with us, especially the unconditional support we received from fans with no matter what we decided. I know some of you may be very disappointed to hear this news. We are devastated. This has been extremely traumatic for both of us, especially Ashley. She underwent the procedure earlier this week and is on the mend. Thankfully, everything went smoothly, but emotionally we are drained. Trisomy 21, also known as Down Syndrome, is caused by an extra chromosome. It is caused by an error in cell division, like a glitch. The odds of a baby having it is 1 in 1000. When I first confronted this news, I was shocked but optimistic. If they’re a little slow intellectually, then we’ll make it work. I signed on to be a parent, come what may…but I just didn’t fully understand what Down Syndrome entailed. Once we made it public, it became clear that MOST people don’t know what Down Syndrome entails (and no, it’s not the same as Autism): 50% of babies with DS have heart defects. 75% will have hearing challenges. Over 50% will have vision problems. Impaired immune function, developmental disabilities, learning disabilities, delayed physical development, poor muscle tone, structural issues with face, decreased lifespan, etc…Sadly, the list is long, feel free to look it up…Down Syndome isn’t a “blessing”, it is objectively shitty from a health perspective. I didn’t realize just how rough it is for the child, let alone the family…more often than not, they would be fully dependent on others for the rest of their life. The miscarriage risk is also close to 50%, which made matters worse…they may never see the light of day and it puts Ashley further at risk. We spoke with doctors, friends, family and genetic counselors and learned that up to 90% of women terminate their pregnancy after learning the baby has Trisomy 21. This was WAY higher than I expected, I thought it would be lower given that I hear so many say they kept or would keep the baby. I believe that’s because most terminations happen privately, it feels shameful. A lot of judgment being cast. You never think you’d be in this type of situation until it happens to you and then things change. To all of my fans who have weighed in on this topic who have Autism, Down Syndrome or any other conditions…we appreciate you. You matter a lot and we’re glad you’re here. I commend you and your families for having the strength and courage to push forward. As for us, we made a difficult decision that we believe in the long-run will be beneficial for our family. Thankfully, we had a choice. It will take a little time to move on, but we are excited to try again in the future and hopefully have a better outcome. Love you guys & thank you for understanding. ❤️

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Cerberus
Cerberus@CerberusFM·
@Bobby_1111888 It’s the opportunity cost that is most painful. Having everything down like 22’ is one thing and understandable. Having bitcoin perform so badly is where the pain is.
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Bobby A
Bobby A@Bobby_1111888·
This market is going to recover A LOT faster than some of these weak capitulating morons think. There’s a huge tailwind behind risk assets, and the tide has turned. All you have to do is be patient. But that is easier said than done.
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Cerberus
Cerberus@CerberusFM·
@d_1awrence I remember bitcoin never breaking stock to flow either
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David Lawrence
David Lawrence@d_1awrence·
Whenever you see Bitcoin's price drop, check the power law chart. Bitcoin's price currently sits at around $66,000 per coin. The support level (that Bitcoin has never dipped under), is c.$58,600. It's linear value (ie the green line), suggests Bitcoin should be around $165k per coin today. The resistance line, that it surpassed in 2014, hit in 2018 and got 70% of the way to hitting it in 2021, is $581k today. This tells me one thing: Bitcoin is undervalued, underappreciated & misunderstood. For those that understand what it is, this is an opportunity. This is like $5k in 2020, or $16k in 2022. What would you give for an opportunity to buy at $16k again? We'll be speaking of $60k in the same way in 2029. There are calls that Bitcoin is dead. That this is the start of Bitcoin going to zero. That its going to drop to $40k before miraculously returning to an ATH. All predictions made by people who are using emotion, rather than historical data & math. Bitcoin as incredibly oversold at these prices. It wont stay like this forever. Those hoping it fails are going to be in the wrong side of history. I'm buying more.
David Lawrence tweet media
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