Unibell （うにべる）

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST WARNED THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MAY BE BUILT ON TEMPORARY DEMAND. He published a post today calling Nvidia "the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way" and explaining why that makes it the most dangerous stock in the market right now. His core argument is: Nvidia is selling into a concentrated group of buyers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta who are all racing to buy chips not because they need them for real revenue generating products right now, but because they are in a training and benchmarking phase that will not last forever. Hyperscalers currently account for approximately 50% of all Nvidia data center revenue. When the training phase ends and these companies shift from building AI to deploying it, the demand profile changes completely. Burry calls this the "bullwhip effect." When the buyers at the end of a supply chain over order because they are afraid of missing out, the distortion amplifies all the way back through the chain. Nvidia sees record demand. Nvidia locks in massive custom supply commitments. Data center financing expands to accommodate the buildout. Everyone bets the demand is permanent. Nvidia just reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year over year. Data center revenue alone was $75.2 billion, up 92%. The numbers are real but the question Burry is asking is whether the demand behind those numbers is structural or temporary. He calls it the "bezzle." A term coined by economist John Kenneth Galbraith to describe the gap between what people think they own and what actually exists. In a bezzle, the money feels real, the assets feel real, and everything looks fine until the moment it does not. Historically the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. The persistent fear among analysts is that the current build out phase of AI will eventually lead to oversupply of computing power and when that happens the whiplash into Nvidia's revenue could be severe. Burry has been wrong on timing before. He called the market a sell in 2023 and it went up 131% since then. But the 2008 mortgage crisis he predicted also looked like a timing mistake for two years before it was not. The difference this time is that he is not just making a macro call. He is pointing to a specific mechanism, concentrated buyers, a temporary demand phase, and custom supply commitments that create obligations on both sides and saying the math only works until the training phase ends. Nvidia trades at 33 times forward earnings on $81 billion in quarterly revenue. If hyperscaler capex slows even 20%, that math changes very fast.

$RKLB ロケットラボ、34％の爆上げ！🚀🚀🚀 ㊗️4倍バガー達成！！🍔🍔🍔🍔😆😆😆😆 宇宙開発関連は今後さらに有望。大きなトレンドになって長年続くでしょう。今年はSpaceXの上場でさらに盛り上がるとみています。 RKLB ホールド続行です😃