Chad Crilley

To all the keyboards warriors coming at the SPC for a “poor” forecast. Here’s the explanation you’ve been waiting for. SPC forecasters remain among the very best in the industry!

Some analysis on what happened to create the (let's be real) *unexpected* deadly Michigan tornado in Union City on Tuesday afternoon. Huge learning experience

Check out a news article from @NWS regarding upcoming changes to the SPC convective outlooks on March 3. weather.gov/news/262402-spc

The analyzed central pressure at 7 am EST was 966 mb. This is an estimated 41 mb drop in 24 hours compared to yesterday's analysis at the same of 1007 mb.

Monday has the makings of a severe weather day in So Cal. This set up is rare but does happen every so often. A Pacific cold front will move ashore with increasing low-level moisture, a strengthening LLJ, and weak (but present) instability. Look for QLCS type storm mode with damaging gusts and a tornado or two.

I’m always especially interested in severe weather setups when they occur in areas that don’t typically see severe storms. NWS Los Angeles using particularly strong wording regarding Monday’s severe weather potential in Southern California.

If I am experiencing information overload about the upcoming winter storm, I know you almost DEFINITELY are too. Check out the Winter Storm Severity Index from WPC. It helps answer the simple question of “how bad will it be where I live” which at the end of the day is probably the question you wanted answered the most.

Ever feel like your town gets more nighttime tornadoes than others? Here's a map of tornadoes by time of day (nighttime tors are plotted on top of daytime tors to stand out). I feel for you Tulsa, Jackson, Birmingham, Nashville...

This footage from inside the eye of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa might be the most jaw-dropping video ever captured of a hurricane’s eye, showcasing the infamous “stadium effect."

LIVE: 3 Tropical Systems + Severe Weather Threat x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

LIVE: Wednesday Night Weather - National Update x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@ATLAreaWx Tons of people in this field are successful without the degree. A lot of times it comes down to how well of a communicator you are.

You have to admit that despite being a college dropout, he harnessed what he learned before & put it to use in the social media field. Truly still a revolution to the weather industry

Last night, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flew into the eye of Hurricane Erin—and captured imagery of the breathtaking stadium effect. These missions provide critical data to the NHC to improve forecasts, helping keep communities safe before the storm makes landfall.#readynow #weatherready

21z Bismarck, ND sounding reveals a classic Mid-Day Plains profile with a remnant EML being mixed and very strong thermodynamics. Low level shear isnt super strong yet, but a strengthening low and incoming wave from Montana + the warm front further north will help increase shear.

Look at the environment not the CAMS sorta day in ND. Storm mode is pretty uncertain up there, but the environment looks supportive of some big hail followed by an overnight wind risk. Any storm rooted along the warm front could produce a tornado, especially if storm mode is supercells at first.

In other words, Florida is a climatologically favored zone for hurricanes during the month of August. Shocking. 🙄

Daily reminder to be mindful of tweets that show a landfalling major hurricane 10+ days out from ONE model. At a minimum show the ensembles 😩 Also tweeting the run and just saying “not a forecast” in the caption isn’t a work around. What we’re missing is context. Yes, we’ve all seen the EURO AI…but if you’re going to show it, tell us what it means. (hint: it means nothing)

South Dakota the hot spot for severe weather recently and again tonight. Looks like a pretty ripe environment for tornadoes over the next few hours, especially with supercells developing along a warm front. Look at the warm nose. Probably very photogenic storms too. #sdwx #ndwx

Like clockwork. It’s always the first big fantasy landfalling storm of the season that seems to grab all the social media attention. Same thing happens at the beginning of severe weather season lol.

BREAKING: Flash flooding in Queens, NYC.